Atlantic Hurricane season / Invest thread 2022 on

[Lauren]

Here we go, lads!

I can see red becoming a fish storm but the Cabo Verde yellow looks a bit more head on.

[SnowBear]

Two areas for today now. The red area still at 80% over 5 days but looks to be keeping well off land for now. The yellow area off Africa looks like it will lose potential as its heading for cooler waters in the next few days. 

Atlantic 5-Day Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook

WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV

 

[matty40s]

Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 200 AM EDT Tue Aug 30 2022 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: 1. Central Tropical Atlantic: A broad and elongated area of low pressure located about 875 miles east of the Lesser Antilles is producing a large area of disorganized cloudiness and thunderstorms. Although environmental conditions are only marginally conducive, some gradual development of this system is expected over the next several days and a tropical depression is likely to form later this week. The disturbance is forecast to move slowly toward the west and then west-northwest at 5 to 10 mph, toward the adjacent waters of the northern Leeward Islands. Additional information on this system can be found in high seas forecasts issued by the National Weather Service. * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

[summer blizzard]

One cherry and two mandarins.

[SnowBear]

We need to keep an eye on that red area to the SW of the Azores. Bit of a wild card, its over some warm waters at the moment, 26-28°c and drifting eastwards. 70% to reach tropical or subtropical depression status in 48 hrs, 80% in 5 days. 

[summer blizzard]

Satellite is pretty clear that 91L has a broad and tilted vortex but it is almost certainly closed as the low level.

This is a Tropical Depression IMO.

[SnowBear]

10 hours ago, SnowBear said:

We need to keep an eye on that red area to the SW of the Azores. Bit of a wild card, its over some warm waters at the moment, 26-28°c and drifting eastwards. 70% to reach tropical or subtropical depression status in 48 hrs, 80% in 5 days. 

Now has an 80/80% chance, with formation possible later today. 

3. Central Subtropical Atlantic: Shower activity associated with an area of low pressure located about 800 miles west-southwest of the westernmost Azores has become better organized during the past several hours. If current trends continue, a tropical or subtropical depression could form later today while the system drifts generally eastward.

* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.

* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent. 

Forecaster Beven

[matty40s]

Cracking August....

 

[Lauren]

I think September and October are going to be a much different story.

[matty40s]

13 hours ago, SnowBear said:

We need to keep an eye on that red area to the SW of the Azores. Bit of a wild card, its over some warm waters at the moment, 26-28°c and drifting eastwards. 70% to reach tropical or subtropical depression status in 48 hrs, 80% in 5 days. 

I'm currently enjoying Lisbon, cracking weather all week. Kraftwerk and Chemical Bros tonight and Arctic Monkeys tommorow.

Local forecasts show a breakdown from Sunday, and Porto further North is showing 5 days of rain next week!!

[SnowBear]

And as if by magic, Number 5 is alive... 

TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE

WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV

 

[The Tall Weatherman]

I have strong feeling in my gut we are in on a chance of some subtropical activity hitting the the UK this year. Firstly conditions seem primed for explosive development over the subtropical Atlantic as sea temperatures are way above average and little shear is present to wreck the storms. Many models show a cut off low diving down and sending any subtropical development spiralling round like a washing machine across northern France and the UK. No need to be super alarmed but it may well be an interesting year . Also we already have a depression on the move which is projected to turn into a hurricane in the next few days. So let’s watch the Radar !

[Don]

3 hours ago, Lauren said:

I think September and October are going to be a much different story.

Well, one would think so!

[Jo Farrow]

5 hours ago, SnowBear said:

And as if by magic, Number 5 is alive... 

TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE

WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV

 

"...slow motion for the next three days or so, with the guidance showing an eastward drift followed by a westward drift. After three days, the anticyclone is forecast to move eastward and weaken as the mid-latitude westerlies start encroaching on the system. The large-scale models are not in good agreement with how this will steer the cyclone, with the GFS and Canadian showing a general motion toward the east while the UKMET and ECMWF forecast a more northward motion." NHC Discussion 1

[SnowBear]

Not much changed, Danielle is on a wander about in light steering winds. 

Later on its expected for stronger steering winds from a trough to pick the storm up and start the track northeastwards after attaining hurricane status over the weekend. 

Edited September 2, 2022 by SnowBear

[Thunder Snow]

We have hurricane Danielle at last.

[The PIT]

Interesting watching it not move a lot in the GFS. GFS does drag eventually much further east while the ECM pushed northward where it merges with a low pressure system. I was wondering if it could merge with the cut off low bugging us sometime in the future.

[summer blizzard]

91L has finally become Tropical Storm Earl. 999mb, 50mph.

[summer blizzard]

Neither is especially interesting (both FISH and they don't currently look to do much over the UK) so i won't bother with a thread but the update for both is below.. 

Danielle - Now a Hurricane - 988mb, 75mph. May become a categorically 2 as it gets caught by the jet stream and barlonically enhanced before it becomes extra-tropical. 

Earl - Still a Tropical Storm - 999mb, 50mph. Forecast to strengthen to 100mph through day 5, will pass somewhere to the east of Bermuda. Should at least improve our ACE total. 

[The PIT]

Looks like Danielle will provide some very warm for us though.

[SnowBear]

Danielle now forecast to do a bit of a dance about towards the end of the week before moving south eastwards towards Portugal/Spain. 

Losing hurricane status sometime Wednesday, and becoming post tropical sometime Thursday. 

With the dance around at the weekend and the shift to that SE track it will be interesting to see where it goes afterwards, any recurve northwards could bring the system very much over the UK. 

Possibly some warm, but very wet weather ahead. 

We shall see. 

Hurricane Danielle Forecast Discussion

WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV

 

[summer blizzard]

Morning update.. 

Danielle - Now a Hurricane - 986mb, 75mph. May become a categorically 2 as it gets caught by the jet stream and barlonically enhanced before it becomes extra-tropical. 

Earl - Still a Tropical Storm - 995mb, 65mph. Forecast to strengthen to 100mph through day 5, will pass somewhere to the east of Bermuda. Should at least improve our ACE total. 

We also have another mandarin.

[summer blizzard]

Morning update..

Dannielle - 980mb, 80mph - Now increasing speed and heading NE as it begins its extra-tropical transition. 

Earl - 981mb, 80mph - Steadily strengthening, forecast to hit 125mph. 

Mandarin at 60%.

Lemon at 20%.

[summer blizzard]

Morning update..

Dannielle - 976mb, 70mph - Now increasing speed and heading NE undergoing extra-tropical transition. 

Earl - 969mb, 105mph - Steadily strengthening, forecast to hit 130mph. Earl will pass Bermuda about 100 miles to the east. 

Mandarin now upgraded to a cherry at 70%.

Lemon upgraded to 30%.

[SnowBear]

It's all gone very much quieter again, only one yellow area in the East Atlantic, 0% in 48 hrs, 30% in 5 days.