Atlantic Hurricane season / Invest thread 2022 on

[alr1970]

https://www.noaa.gov/news-release/noaa-predicts-above-normal-2022-atlantic-hurricane-season

[Guest]

A fairly strong tropical wave has left the east coast of Africa. Quite a few of GEFS ensembles develop a tropical system by the time it reaches the lesser Antilles. Obviously this a long way but as I’m in the Dominican Republic currently a few of those GEFS ensembles have an early season hurricane pretty close to here. One to watch.

[karyo]

Tropical storm Colin has caught the NHC and the models by surprise! 24 hours ago nothing indicated that those scattered showers on the south Carolina coast would develop into a tropical storm. Colin is now moving northeast to north Carolina.

[karyo]

July ended up a very quiet month and things don't look like picking up in the next week or so. 

All the forecasts went for an above average season. I guess the Saharan dust is suppressing any activity.

 

[Don]

On 28/07/2022 at 11:55, karyo said:

July ended up a very quiet month and things don't look like picking up in the next week or so. 

All the forecasts went for an above average season. I guess the Saharan dust is suppressing any activity.

 

Yes, one would have thought it needs to start waking up soon if it's to be an active season?

[karyo]

10 hours ago, Don said:

Yes, one would have thought it needs to start waking up soon if it's to be an active season?

Indeed! August and September are peak months so the quiet can't go much longer. I check the NHC site most days and I can't remember another summer season with such a protracted period without any areas of concern on the map. 

[summer blizzard]

2007 and 2013 are examples of low ACE seasons with a Nina background. It's notable that with a -PDO and low GLAAM we just be too supressed globally.

That said Aug-Oct will probably rescue the ACE total.

[Climate Man]

1 hour ago, karyo said:

Indeed! August and September are peak months so the quiet can't go much longer. I check the NHC site most days and I can't remember another summer season with such a protracted period without any areas of concern on the map. 

Early forecasts that I saw were for a busy season. Just shows how difficult even medium term modelling is. Still plenty of toime yet though.  At least we didn't have one in February this year.

[Don]

12 hours ago, summer blizzard said:

2007 and 2013 are examples of low ACE seasons with a Nina background. It's notable that with a -PDO and low GLAAM we just be too supressed globally.

That said Aug-Oct will probably rescue the ACE total.

Do you think it could be a late starting but strong season overall?

[summer blizzard]

1992 - 5/4/1 - Cat 5 - L 

1999 - 10/7/4 - Cat 4 - L 

1975 - 6/5/3 - Cat 4 - L 

Aug-Oct analogues have 6/5/3 as our best bet so normal in quantity but decent quality. All had a major landfall in the US.

 

 

[matty40s]

At last, a possible maybe...

 

[SnowBear]

35 minutes ago, matty40s said:

At last, a possible maybe...

 

Fairly low chance at the moment though so a big maybe hehe

ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Weather Outlook

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 200 PM EDT Sat Aug 6 2022

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Eastern Tropical Atlantic: A tropical wave is forecast to move off the west coast of Africa tonight and early Sunday. Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for gradual development of this system while it moves westward to west-northwestward at 15 to 20 mph across the eastern and central tropical Atlantic during the early to middle part of next week.

* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.

* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

Forecaster Berg

[damianslaw]

Could do with some hurricane activity in the next week to shake things up a bit.. Atlantic looks dead at present.

Edited August 6, 2022 by damianslaw

[summer blizzard]

Right on que, 40% now.

[matty40s]

 

[damianslaw]

When will it get going?

[Don]

16 minutes ago, damianslaw said:

When will it get going?

Will need to get going soon, otherwise the current dry conditions will likely continue well into September!

Edited August 8, 2022 by Don

[karyo]

None of the major models make much of this disturbance. 

[SnowBear]

Dropped to 20% in 48 hrs, 30% in 5 days, formation chance is low. 

[Don]

16 hours ago, SnowBear said:

Dropped to 20% in 48 hrs, 30% in 5 days, formation chance is low. 

Like getting blood out of a stone!

[SnowBear]

20 hours ago, Don said:

Like getting blood out of a stone!

Now 10% overall. We have to watch for the next one now I am afraid. 

[karyo]

20 hours ago, Don said:

Like getting blood out of a stone!

It looks like a very quiet August!  Quite remarkable under La Nina conditions.

[Don]

4 hours ago, karyo said:

It looks like a very quiet August!  Quite remarkable under La Nina conditions.

Seems to be a lot of unusual activity at the moment.  I can't help but think the underlying cause is climate change!

Edited August 11, 2022 by Don

[damianslaw]

Any hurricane on the way?

[Don]

1 hour ago, damianslaw said:

Any hurricane on the way?

Nope....