Atlantic Hurricane season / Invest thread 2022 on

[Derecho]

16 hours ago, karyo said:

My eyes are on the one southeast of the Windward islands. Although it is currently given less chance of development, is in an interesting position with the caribbean on the horizon.

Yes it's over very warm waters at the moment but it needs to shift further north to give it that extra bit of rotation, if it does it could develop very rapidly.

[karyo]

6 hours ago, Quicksilver1989 said:

Yes it's over very warm waters at the moment but it needs to shift further north to give it that extra bit of rotation, if it does it could develop very rapidly.

This afternoon the distarbance is looking much more organised and the NHC has upped the chances of development to 60%. 

[Thunder Snow]

Is that just going to move towards the Pacific 

[Thunder Snow]

We have TD 12 expected to be short lived

[summer blizzard]

91L has a high chance of development however it has an elongated center and is close to land.

[Thunder Snow]

We have Potential cyclone 13.

[karyo]

TD13 continues to hug the Venezuala coast but as it heads westwards it should avoid the land for a while and become Tropical Storm Julia and then possibly get into hurricane strength before hitting Nicaragua. After that it will fizzle out but both the GFS and ECM show the remnants of Julie eventually getting into the southwest GOM. So far the models don't show much of a reorganisation after that but this may change in subsequent output.

[Dreckly]

000
WTNT33 KNHC 070852
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Thirteen Advisory Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132022
500 AM EDT Fri Oct 07 2022

...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER THE GUAJIRA PENINSULA OF
COLOMBIA THIS MORNING...
...HEAVY RAINS TO CONTINUE ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA
TODAY...

SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...12.1N 71.1W
ABOUT 35 MI...55 KM SE OF NTHRN TIP OF GUAJIRA PNSULA COLOMBIA
ABOUT 700 MI...1125 KM E OF ISLA DE PROVIDENCIA COLOMBIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* San Andres, Providencia, and Santa Catalina Islands Colombia

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Coast of Colombia from Riohacha eastward to the Colombia/Venezuela
border

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within
the next 6 to 12 hours.

Interests along the coasts of Nicaragua and Honduras should monitor
the progress of the disturbance. Additional watches or warnings
will likely be required later today.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM EDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Thirteen 
was located near latitude 12.1 North, longitude 71.1 West. The 
depression is moving toward the west near 15 mph (24 km/h), and a 
generally westward motion is expected to continue through Sunday. On 
the forecast track, the cyclone is expected to move near or over the 
Guajira Peninsula of Colombia this morning, then move across the 
southwestern Caribbean Sea through Saturday. The cyclone is forecast 
to pass near San Andres and Providencia Islands Saturday night, and 
approach the coast of Nicaragua on Sunday morning.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. 
Gradual strengthening is forecast today, and the depression is 
expected to become a tropical storm later this morning or this 
afternoon. A faster rate of strengthening is forecast on Saturday 
and Saturday night, and the system is expected to become a hurricane 
before it reaches San Andres and Providencia Islands and the coast 
of Nicaragua this weekend. 

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Tropical Depression Thirteen can be found in the
Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO
header WTNT43 KNHC.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are possible on the Colombian islands of
San Andres, Providencia, and Santa Catalina Saturday night into
early Sunday, with tropical storm conditions possible by Saturday 
afternoon.

Tropical storm conditions are expected along the coast of Colombia
within the warning area this morning. Gusts to tropical storm force
are possible on Aruba and across portions of the northwestern coast
of Venezuela during the next several hours.

RAINFALL: The tropical depression is expected to produce the
following rain accumulations through early Monday:

Northern Venezuela, Aruba, Bonaire, and Curacao...additional 1 to 3 
inches
Guajira Peninsula...3 to 6 inches, isolated 10 inches.
San Andres and Providencia...6 to 12 inches
Portions of Central America...5 to 10 inches, isolated 15 inches.

This rainfall may cause life-threatening flash floods. There is also 
the potential for life-threatening mudslides across portions of 
Central America this weekend. 

STORM SURGE: A storm surge could raise water levels by as much as
1 to 3 feet above normal tide levels along the immediate coast in
areas of onshore winds on San Andres, Providencia, and Santa
Catalina Islands. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by
large and damaging waves.

SURF: Swells generated by the cyclone are affecting the ABC Islands 
and portions of the coasts of northwestern Venezuela and the Guajira 
Peninsula of Colombia. These swells are forecast to spread westward 
and reach Jamaica late tonight, Providencia and San Andres Islands 
on Saturday, and portions of the coast of Central America on 
Saturday night and Sunday. These swells are likely to cause 
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult 
products from your local weather office.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 AM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Reinhart

[karyo]

Julia is making a Nicaragua landfall today as a category 1 hurricane. After that, it all looks quiet. 

[matty40s]

 

[Don]

2 hours ago, karyo said:

Julia is making a Nicaragua landfall today as a category 1 hurricane. After that, it all looks quiet. 

Yes, but I guess now is the time when the Hurricane season typically slows down, even though it was late starting?  Season as a whole may just reach the average category?

[karyo]

6 hours ago, Don said:

Yes, but I guess now is the time when the Hurricane season typically slows down, even though it was late starting?  Season as a whole may just reach the average category?

Even if it reaches average it is very underwhelming compared to the forecasts.

[Don]

41 minutes ago, karyo said:

Even if it reaches average it is very underwhelming compared to the forecasts.

Yes indeed!

[karyo]

We may get a tropical depression in the southern GOM! A tropical low is currently developing.

[karyo]

Tropical storm Carl has formed.

[The Tall Weatherman]

Karl may be a hurricane on landfall based on the latest recordings on the Hurricane hunter aircraft.

[matty40s]

 

[karyo]

Karl is having such an unusual track, basically moving southwards towards Mexico.

[karyo]

Late season bonanza with 2 tropical storms, Martin and Lisa! Martin of no real interest to land but Linda should become a hurricane soon and crash into Guatemala.

[matty40s]

 

[The Tall Weatherman]

I have never seen a hurricane cone go that far north in my life. Just shows how warm are oceans are !

[matty40s]

 

[Don]

5 hours ago, The Tall Weatherman said:

I have never seen a hurricane cone go that far north in my life. Just shows how warm are oceans are !

Yes, that is quite extraordinary!!

[matty40s]

...and another, Florida in the firing line again..

 

[karyo]

The models have upgraded the potential of this system for the second part of the coming week.  The forecast track is also interesting, moving slowly north for a time before making a turn to the west/southwest towards Florida.