Model Output Discussion - Autumn arrives

[Guest]

2 minutes ago, sunnijim said:

That's not true

A met office spokesman referred to the 'American model' as showing these high values,he didn't dismiss it, although lower values at the point of reporting were the more likely.

Correct. I've not seen any expert quotes as dismissing it. Merely emphasising it was low probability at the time. It still is of course, but I do believe that probability has increased somewhat in the last 24 hours or so. One look at the ECM, MOGREPS and GFS ensembles is enough to come to that conclusion.

[Mark Smithy]

Just seen the 06z GFS. This would not be funny.

Dangerous temperatures.

 

[mb018538]

8 minutes ago, qwertyK said:

theweatheroutlook.com is showing 39C in London

Interestingly, that and Google weather is suggesting it will only be partly sunny/cloudy those days which means humidity will be bad, but probably won't reach as high as it could. And theweather.com shows a massive drop in temp, going down to 17-19C and rain

I'm pretty sure theweatheroutlook has also shown 39C in 2019, and indeed, 39C was originally forecast for 2019. 

Weather in London - 16 day weather forecast

WWW.THEWEATHEROUTLOOK.COM

---

Latest 16 day local weather forecast for london. Detailed weather forecast updates 4 times each day to give the very latest prospects.

 

That’s not a forecast, it’s just auto generated and built from model data input. Best to ignore anything like that at range.

[kold weather]

6 minutes ago, Quicksilver1989 said:

Been watching the charts with an element of shock over the last 24 hours. I still think the GFS is off on one but I also do think we will have 1 day with a realistic chance of somewhere surpassing 40C and also breaching the UK temperature record.

I think what has really caught my attention is the way the ECM ensembles are shifting up the gears as well. Upto yesterday most were sticking with the 32-34c range maxes with the 36-40c being somewhat outliers. The 00z ECM however has alot more of those 36-40c type runs and increasingly few of the cooler runs. Given the ensembles don't have quite the resolution as the operational runs, its really quite alarming to see so many still going into the mid-high 30s.

I think we can now have good confidence of another hot spell this weekend coming up, with temps at least reaching into the 30s, lesser confidence in just how high it goes.

My guess is at the least we will have a new entry into the top 10 hottest days ever...

[qwertyK]

Just now, mb018538 said:

That’s not a forecast, it’s just auto generated and built from model data input. Best to ignore anything like that at range.

I might sound like an idiot here, how does a weather forecast work if not like that then?

Yeah theweatheroutlook.com is pretty bad. I remember oen of the models once suggested we'd have 22C in February, think this was like in 2020. 

[Frosty.]

These Gfs 6z op max / min temps are astonishing!

 

 

[Stav]

1 hour ago, mb018538 said:

More about education really. 40c doesn’t need to be dangerous if you are sensible….millions of people manage it for months on end every year. UK suffers more as our houses are built to retain heat.

I am not sure that is quite accurate. The people who manage it live in countries like the UAE or USA where everything is air-conditioned. I lived in Bahrain and I cannot imagine having lived in the 40C+ heat without sir-conditioned home, car, office and shops. Going outside it felt like a blast furnace. I also lived in Switzerland when they started having hotter than usual summers. Nowhere is air conditioned in Zurich canton, and the apartments are insulated to death - 34C was hard to live through.

Please do not underestimate the impact this will have. 

[Mark Smithy]

2 minutes ago, kold weather said:

[...]

My guess is at the least we will have a new entry into the top 10 hottest days ever...

Ever recorded 

Don't worry, I'm not a climate change denialist and yes I do certainly believe in anthropogenic global warming but the earth has been extremely hot before.

What's the hottest Earth's ever been? | NOAA Climate.gov

WWW.CLIMATE.GOV

---

Earth’s hottest periods occurred before humans existed. Those ancient climates would have been like nothing our species has ever seen.

 

[*Stormforce~beka*]

1 hour ago, Summer Sun said:

Monday week makes it 3 40c+ days in a row in the south

Would they cancel schools in this type of heat?

[Mark Smithy]

Yep airconditioning is crucial.

40C without aircon = killer temps

[Daniel*]

Very strong signal for major heat next Sunday, eps mean already has 33C in London. ?

[chrisbell-nottheweatherman]

1 minute ago, *Stormforce~beka* said:

Would they cancel schools in this type of heat?

If they've got any sense they will, but I'd expect some of the strict academies to stay open and require students to wear their blazers.  Image is everything; a few students in A&E for heatstroke may not concern some of these "Principals" who, IMO, are little more than David Brent types.

[Derecho]

8 minutes ago, qwertyK said:

I might sound like an idiot here, how does a weather forecast work if not like that then?

Yeah theweatheroutlook.com is pretty bad. I remember oen of the models once suggested we'd have 22C in February, think this was like in 2020. 

That was 2019 and a few places did get above 20C.

[kold weather]

22 out of 31 ensemble runs from the 06z GFS go above 35c now, 3-4 others reach 34c and just miss out, and only 3 stay below 30c.

So we've got strong agreement of very hot weather next weekend, probably about half would challenge the record, a few are like the OP and destroy the record.

Pretty brutal set of ensembles, the hottest I've ever seen as a total package again.

[qwertyK]

Just now, Quicksilver1989 said:

That was 2019 and a few places did get above 20C.

No I remember it was 2020. I made a thread about it 

[Guest]

3 minutes ago, *Stormforce~beka* said:

Would they cancel schools in this type of heat?

I should hope so! If a week on Monday ends up being in the high 30s, low 40s (which means the former for Sheffield) I'd be recommending it to my school straight away.

[snowrye]

Off topic, but make it go away

[qwertyK]

3 minutes ago, Steel City Skies said:

I should hope so! If a week on Monday ends up being in the high 30s, low 40s (which means the former for Sheffield) I'd be recommending it to my school straight away.

And people who work outside too. No one will want to work

[danm]

1 hour ago, kold weather said:

Not just that but we had a HUGE warning shot across the bows in June 2019 when we were a ENE at the surface away from reaching 40-42c back then as well. I've been banging on ever since then saying we should be able to reach 41-42c in the right setup. The thickness and 850hpa certainly supported it, we just had a big undercut from the North Sea. Not looking that likely that saves us this time around.

I'll admit I'm still sceptical we go quite to the heights of the GFS, but even if we don't, the 4th year out of 5 with a 36c+ weather should be another huge warning shot for many.

Yes it is notable how easily we now reach 35°c+. If we look at the last few years, here in London we’ve hit or exceeded 35°c in 2015, 2018, 2019 and 2020 and look highly likely to again next weekend. 

Prior to 2019, the only times during my lifetime (1986 onwards) where we’ve hit or exceeded 35°c was in 1990, 2003 and 2006. Even the amazing summer of 1995 only reached 34°c as a max. Before 1990, if I’m not mistaken the last time we hit 35°c was in 1976. 

[Guest]

Off topic.

1. Certainly the busiest this threads ever been in the summer.

2. If 30C is not reached next weekend this would now start ranking as one of the biggest model fails of all time (whether you want heat or not) and would be up there with some the infamous BFTE let downs.

Edited July 10, 2022 by Alderc

[NO LONGER POSTING]

GFS flips back... hmmmm 

Watch ECM later go the GFS 00Z route 

Would still be funny if it didn't happen at all and as others mentioned would be a massive fail by models 

[mb018538]

17 minutes ago, qwertyK said:

I might sound like an idiot here, how does a weather forecast work if not like that then?

Yeah theweatheroutlook.com is pretty bad. I remember oen of the models once suggested we'd have 22C in February, think this was like in 2020. 

Best to look at ones with a manual input like the met office video forecasts. Anything on an app or website is generated from raw model data without human input.

[qwertyK]

1 minute ago, mb018538 said:

Best to look at ones with a manual input like the met office video forecasts. Anything on an app or website is generated from raw model data without human input.

Noted

Edited July 10, 2022 by qwertyK

[legion_quest]

29 minutes ago, Quicksilver1989 said:

The heat being forecast is alarming but it will serve as a wake up call to the risk of anthropogenic climate change. It'll at least keep the climate change deniers quiet. Imagine if the weather patterns of summer 1976 were replicated now?

You would hope, but it doesn't take much to see people who are seeing these charts and celebrating, or even hoping it happens every year. Climate Change is downplayed constantly, or seen as something for the far future to worry about. This will be looked at as an outlier and sold as 'a glorious Jubilee Summer!' rather than the wake up call it should be. 

[Guest]

2 minutes ago, Surrey said:

GFS flips back... hmmmm 

It never flipped. The 00z ensembles supported the same outcome, it was the operational that went against the grain by sweeping the heat away quicker.

A flip is normally described for when the majority of an ensemble suite changes.