Model Output Discussion - Autumn arrives

[sheikhy]

Forget mild more like warm very warm conditions continue on ecm for some time yet!!

[LRD]

It's an outlier but it's been trending on the ECM. A boiling year continues into November. I hope it comes off for the novelty (although it probably won't be a novelty in 10 years' time) and to just experience what that will feel like (it'll feel weird, no doubt)

Bizarre. Our climate continues to get twisted out of shape

[MP-R]

7 minutes ago, LRD said:

It's an outlier but it's been trending on the ECM. A boiling year continues into November. I hope it comes off for the novelty (although it probably won't be a novelty in 10 years' time) and to just experience what that will feel like (it'll feel weird, no doubt)

Bizarre. Our climate continues to get twisted out of shape

I’m expecting a day like 1st November 2015 from a chart like that, or at least a warm sunny day like some during my time living in the SE in Nov 2011.

[richie3846]

2 minutes ago, LRD said:

It's an outlier but it's been trending on the ECM. A boiling year continues into November. I hope it comes off for the novelty (although it probably won't be a novelty in 10 years' time) and to just experience what that will feel like (it'll feel weird, no doubt)

Bizarre. Our climate continues to get twisted out of shape

If this warmth comes off, it would be interesting to compare charts to the records that were broken in North Wales in 2015. 22.4c and 22.3c on the first and second of November. Also we had a similar event in 2014, on Halloween. Kew, 23.6c.

Perhaps this is a phenomenon that accompanies warmer seas into late autumn. The fact it happened twice in the last decade, and now is modelled again, PLUS there have been other warm October half terms in this century, which I cannot remember exact details about, other than being off every October half term and noting that many are far milder than the seasonal norm, does lead me to ponder if this is a feature we can expect more of. 

 

[Downburst]

I said earlier this week that’s it’s hard to see where a frost could even come from, never mind the extremely popular post from another member offering the certainty of “seasonal” read snow etc. conditions on a 10 day outlier chart. We end the month with this 

 

but this is autumn, not winter and there’s still about 5 weeks of autumn left no matter what anyone expects. Great weather for ducks of course.

[Jordan S]

Not just the risk of thunderstorms and further heavy rain this evening over southern and southeast England but also some strong winds, gusts upto 40-50mph possible in the far southeast especially along the coast.

Rather impressive upper air temperatures later this week as lows continue to whirl away across the west, leading to potentially a very mild even warm day on Thursday with temps possibly upto 19-22c for central southern and eastern areas of England.

Having a curious look into the latter part of the GFS run shows a similar synoptic evolution to the Christmas week over our part of the world with a high drifting southeast from around Iceland trying to introduce cold air southwest. In this instance stopped in its tracks by low pressure systems to our west with the high receding back, but it demonstrates I guess the obvious, that although the continent is very warm for the time of year for most atm. It can and will still rapidly cool down as soon as one or two plunges of arctic air take place, and they probably will within the next few weeks as is normal.

[Tim Bland]

If there’s no early winter I’ll settle for a late summer

[Froze were the Days]

Real grim viewing the ecm det...good for the utility bills but little else if you're a coldie!

[E17boy]

14 minutes ago, Froze were the Days said:

Real grim viewing the ecm det...good for the utility bills but little else if you're a coldie!

Hi,

Yes good for the utility bills I agree at times like this. I was getting very concerned with all this very mild weather recently, but just read Exeters extended update does throw some glimmer of hope that at long last we may see changed come November. According to them becoming colder especially in North and west and yes the SNOW word at long last has appeared. Fingers crossed for a change .

have a great day

regards

[Cambrian]

The 6z GFS operational run plays a blinder in its later stages. After going flatter for a few days, by day 10, the pattern has switched more amplified again through eastern Canada, helping to drive deepening of the Atlantic low to less than 945mb.

 

Drastic times call for drastic measures so it would seem, and perhaps the only way to sort out this Atlantic low pressure is to get the black positive heights anomaly palette out between Greenland and Iceland and push the low south all the way to the Azores, here at day 15. From less than 945mb to more than 1035mb to the southwest of Iceland in just 5 days?

  

Just to bring a final twist to the plot. Notice entering stage left a tropical storm  We all know what’s going to happen next - that’s going to push extra heights up to the west of Greenland, forcing the merging of the Greenland and Eurasian lows to the northeast of Scandinavia, which then dumbbell-tumble down the eastern flank of the high, to establish extensive low pressure over Scandinavia and continental Europe by mid-November, with the high by then holding nicely over Greenland, bringing us into a lengthy run of trough-laden Arctic air, and delivering an early taste of winter to the expectant millions…..

Not based as yet on any firm modelling data by the end I know, more illustrative perhaps of the kind of model heroics needed to break through into the mooted colder pattern, and heck, it’s Sunday afternoon. Have a good one. 

[Tim Bland]

16c uppers north of Iceland this late in Autumn must be quite rare?!

[Don]

45 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

16c uppers north of Iceland this late in Autumn must be quite rare?!

In the past I would think most definitely, moving forward probably not! 

 

[Frosty.]

I spy, with my little eye 👁..P1 GEFS 6z!!!! Release the kraken already! ..yeah, I’m desperate Dan! 

 

[KTtom]

2 hours ago, E17boy said:

Hi,

Yes good for the utility bills I agree at times like this. I was getting very concerned with all this very mild weather recently, but just read Exeters extended update does throw some glimmer of hope that at long last we may see changed come November. According to them becoming colder especially in North and west and yes the SNOW word at long last has appeared. Fingers crossed for a change .

have a great day

regards

I think that 'word' will vanish pretty quickly this week. Very odd update, hard to invisage a set up that will give snow in the west in early november, and certainly nothing model wise to give the smallest hint of a pattern change that will knock 15 degrees off current values that i can see, apart from the odd rogue ensemble which you will always get at this time of year. 

Edited October 23, 2022 by KTtom

[Don]

19 minutes ago, jon snow said:

I spy, with my little eye 👁..P1 GEFS 6z!!!! Release the kraken already! ..yeah, I’m desperate Dan! 

 

I spy with my little eye nice chart but not gonna happen! 

19 minutes ago, KTtom said:

I think that 'word' will vanish pretty quickly this week. Very odd update, hard to invisage a set up that will give snow in the west in early november, and certainly nothing model wise to give the smallest hint of a pattern change that will knock 15 degrees off current values that i can see, apart from the odd rogue ensemble which you will always get at this time of year. 

They are talking more mid November than early to be fair.

[Frosty.]

Wow, I cannae believe I’m looking at the CFS for salvation!.. …but hey, winter is still over 1month away!…hiccup.. …cheers!  

[Methuselah]

9 minutes ago, jon snow said:

Wow, I cannae believe I’m looking at the CFS for salvation!.. …but hey, winter is still over 1month away!…hiccup.. …cheers!  

Did Hans Christian Anderson write the CFS's algorithms?

[BlueHedgehog074]

While it’s fairly quiet, will be letting loose a new model thread within the next hour. Particularly also with how things went on in here earlier this morning and, along with the billions of pages this thread has gone through, feels like it needs a fresh start. 

[Scorcher]

What an incredible chart this is for next Sunday:

Almost November and the 15C isotherm over most of England. I can't recall ever seeing such warm air in October before- certainly not in the last week. Not nailed on but would be incredible if it happened.

[BlueHedgehog074]

Very impressive indeed. Even this mornings ECMWF model towards the end of the run had something similar regarding the warm 850 hPa temperatures!

Will also be locking this now. New thread coming up in a sec

(Edit: Sorry about this, going to have to briefly unlock this thread again as accidentally deleted some content in the new thread I’ve been planning to do. So sorry )

Edited October 23, 2022 by DiagonalRedLine

[Don]

11 minutes ago, Scorcher said:

What an incredible chart this is for next Sunday:

Almost November and the 15C isotherm over most of England. I can't recall ever seeing such warm air in October before- certainly not in the last week. Not nailed on but would be incredible if it happened.

Maybe 2014?

[Rain All Night]

2 minutes ago, Don said:

Maybe 2014?

It looks like Halloween 2014 had less 15C going on than the model output posted by Scorcher:

[Don]

3 minutes ago, RainAllNight said:

It looks like Halloween 2014 had less 15C going on than the model output posted by Scorcher:

I believe temps reached 23C that day in 2014, so what potential temps could we see next week, if this comes off?!  

Edited October 23, 2022 by Don

[BlueHedgehog074]

(All sorted now: 

Will be putting the padlock on this thread now  Sorry for the inconvenience)

Edited October 23, 2022 by DiagonalRedLine

[BlueHedgehog074]

(Final thing to add, for those who were typing out a post on here, would recommend copying and pasting reply to new thread. Sorry again )