Model Output Discussion - Autumn arrives

[Rain All Night]

16 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

* Groans ..

wet mild and windy for the forseeable ..

9 days later, spot the difference...!?

[northwestsnow]

47 minutes ago, RainAllNight said:

9 days later, spot the difference...!?

Yup.

Dreadful pattern ,basically a west based - NAO which promotes mild Europe and sometimes a very wet UK as systems stall near our shores.

On a brighter note EC46 has the pattern flipping as we head into November with blocking High in the North Atlantic which if nothing else provide something more seasonal...

With Exeter and EC 46 on the date page I'm hopeful of colder drier conditions come early November, we then look to see if the projected N Atlantic block can push towards Iceland to open the possibility of a frigid NE'ly with heavy snow showers blown in  off the North Sea..

You never know ...

 

Edited October 18, 2022 by northwestsnow

[mushymanrob]

Its only October, so worrying about Winter is pointless... besides, we NEED rain and lots of it to top up our reservoirs, and the mild will cut our heating bill... let Autumn be Autumn and worry about Winter later.

[LetItSnow!]

2 hours ago, RainAllNight said:

9 days later, spot the difference...!?

A great pattern for rainfall to be honest as the mild south-westerly winds will pump very moisture laden air over the country and give us all a soaking which, after such a dry year will no doubt do us a lot of good. It’s a controversial take that having a certain with a type early on reduces the likelihood of it happening again, but if you do believe that then it’s good to get the mild moisture laden south-westerlies out of the way in the autumn rather than in December. The only problem with them is that sometimes flooding can occur in the north-west, but there’s nothing like that being shown as far as I’m aware, so I think we should all be grateful for the chance of some meaningful rain and mild temperatures, especially with the heating issue this autumn and winter. 

[damianslaw]

3 hours ago, northwestsnow said:

Yup.

Dreadful pattern ,basically a west based - NAO which promotes mild Europe and sometimes a very wet UK as systems stall near our shores.

On a brighter note EC46 has the pattern flipping as we head into November with blocking High in the North Atlantic which if nothing else provide something more seasonal...

With Exeter and EC 46 on the date page I'm hopeful of colder drier conditions come early November, we then look to see if the projected N Atlantic block can push towards Iceland to open the possibility of a frigid NE'ly with heavy snow showers blown in  off the North Sea..

You never know ...

 

Nov 09 same pattern...

[Methuselah]

1 minute ago, damianslaw said:

Nov 09 same pattern...

Globally? Hemispherically? Or just in the general vicinity of Blighty?

[damianslaw]

6 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

Globally? Hemispherically? Or just in the general vicinity of Blighty?

UK synoptics, low pressure languished to the west/ sw pumping up mild SW air and lots of rain here at least, blocked by heights to our east and south east. Atlantic struggled to break through. This isn't a zonal flow.

Edited October 18, 2022 by damianslaw

[Methuselah]

Aye, whatever happened to all those 2-3-week-long trains of west-east moving depressions that used to pretty much dictate our weather for, well, 2-3 weeks at a stretch? They seem to have dried up, pardon the pun!

Edited October 18, 2022 by Ed Stone

[Ross90]

Lots of rain in the sw and Wales but it doesn't look like there's going to be much in the se where it's needed...

[Allseasons-Si]

3 hours ago, mushymanrob said:

Its only October, so worrying about Winter is pointless... besides, we NEED rain and lots of it to top up our reservoirs, and the mild will cut our heating bill... let Autumn be Autumn and worry about Winter later.

Spot on Mushy,...everyone thinks that Oct 2008 should happen every year but that is as rare as....

the pattern is far from zonal norm so sit tight peeps,...it's fine and warm outside,...go and enjoy

off to cut the grass now

later's.

[snefnug]

46 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

Aye, whatever happened to all those 2-3-week-long trains of west-east moving depressions that used to pretty much dictate our weather for, well, 2-3 weeks at a stretch? They seem to have dried up, pardon the pun!

They moved to Scotland……

 

[mb018538]

Enjoy any dry weather while it lasts.....it's about to turn pretty soggy in most areas. Low pressure and mild W/SW/S airmasses bringing plenty of moisture our way.

[northwestsnow]

So the next 10 to 14 days,broadly speaking look Atlantic driven .

Exeter look to be swimming along in tandem with EC 46 , suggesting HP to our West / North West in November with Fog / Frost likely..

I'll take an unsettled spell  now for a seasonal November personally.. 

 

Edited October 18, 2022 by northwestsnow

[richie3846]

45 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

Enjoy any dry weather while it lasts.....it's about to turn pretty soggy in most areas. Low pressure and mild W/SW/S airmasses bringing plenty of moisture our way.

It's a shame we can't see what proportion of that rain is in the reliable timeframe. I'd be less trusting if the majority was for days 6-10.

[richie3846]

11 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

So the next 10 to 14 days,broadly speaking look Atlantic driven .

Exeter look to be swimming along in tandem with EC 46 , suggesting HP to our West / North West in November with Fog / Frost likely..

I'll take an unsettled spell  now for a seasonal November personally.. 

 

A seasonal November here is dull, mildish temps, and a fair bit of rain. I'm guessing you aren't suggesting that though!

[Summer8906]

31 minutes ago, richie3846 said:

A seasonal November here is dull, mildish temps, and a fair bit of rain. I'm guessing you aren't suggesting that though!

I'd prefer the nice weather now to be honest, which is why the GFS fills me with despondency. We're certainly making up for the fine weather earlier in the year with a very disturbed autumn, it seems, with both Sep and Oct likely to be wet or very wet.

Once the clocks go back it becomes much harder to use any settled weather (by the time you finish lunch it's going dark in three hours...), and in November even anticyclones tend to be cloudy and bring on anticyclonic gloom (see last year). So now is the last chance we have for settled weather with a reasonable chance of sunshine, and sunset at a decent time, until around mid February.

Edited October 18, 2022 by Summer8906

[LRD]

2 hours ago, Summer8906 said:

I'd prefer the nice weather now to be honest, which is why the GFS fills me with despondency. We're certainly making up for the fine weather earlier in the year with a very disturbed autumn, it seems, with both Sep and Oct likely to be wet or very wet.

Once the clocks go back it becomes much harder to use any settled weather (by the time you finish lunch it's going dark in three hours...), and in November even anticyclones tend to be cloudy and bring on anticyclonic gloom (see last year). So now is the last chance we have for settled weather with a reasonable chance of sunshine, and sunset at a decent time, until around mid February.

It's been nowhere near a disturbed autumn in my patch. We've had 4 straight days where it's felt (and looked) like early/mid-September in the Bedfordshire desert with loads of sun and warmth. A bit of rain overnight Sunday into Monday was, essentially, it. Still in rainfall deficit here.

I really hope the models are correct with the pattern from about Thursday this week and through next week.

I'm sceptical, however, as modelling for our little patch of the world has frequently overestimated rainfall. Precipitation spikes already being downgraded for London on the 12z ensembles (not the full set) from Friday onwards - based on what we were seeing modelled at the weekend

Just hope those charts that mb018 has provided are correct except with a slight shift east and NE

Edited October 18, 2022 by LRD

[richie3846]

45 minutes ago, LRD said:

It's been nowhere near a disturbed autumn in my patch. We've had 4 straight days where it's felt (and looked) like early/mid-September in the Bedfordshire desert with loads of sun and warmth. A bit of rain overnight Sunday into Monday was, essentially, it. Still in rainfall deficit here.

I really hope the models are correct with the pattern from about Thursday this week and through next week.

I'm sceptical, however, as modelling for our little patch of the world has frequently overestimated rainfall. Precipitation spikes already being downgraded for London on the 12z ensembles (not the full set) from Friday onwards - based on what we were seeing modelled at the weekend

Just hope those charts that mb018 has provided are correct except with a slight shift east and NE

I'm not convinced either, I've been looking at the rainfall information on the main models, and it seems that most of the activity up until the reliable timeframe (let's say 5 days approximately) is mainly showery fronts passing through in waves, as far as I can tell. Beyond that we are moving into the unreliable, so my tuppenceworth is that the totals will not be huge for most of the south within the reliable timeframe, but there will be showers for us all at some point.

[Cambrian]

It’s not just us then.

 
 

Ah, the plot thickens…..

While we’re still waiting for the 12z ECM (ho-hum), the 12z GFS op gave of its best for livening up the North Atlantic at day 11 - lower than 940mb at bullseye that little dartboard monster. And look at the anomaly chart! Fall into that and you could end up anywhere in the universe.

 

 

Edited October 18, 2022 by Cambrian

[Allseasons-Si]

The ECM is rolling out now and currently at 120.

edit:it's all coming out now lol

 

Edited October 18, 2022 by Allseasons-si

[mb018538]

UKV has suddenly gone all cool and mucky here Thursday afternoon. Big model differences - GEM and ECM still show 18/19c, so someone is going to be very wrong….

[Methuselah]

Maybe I'm imagining things, but haven't certain folks been predicting the onset of cool unsettled conditions since about April? Is it going to snow next Thursday?

[Froze were the Days]

ECM det runs of recent days have been mind numbingly boring if you're looking for something other than a southerly jet...so strange to continually see, not our normal west to east Atlantic weather though far from it. What it holds for the coming months god knows but by god I want that continent to cool down.

[damianslaw]

14 minutes ago, Froze were the Days said:

ECM det runs of recent days have been mind numbingly boring if you're looking for something other than a southerly jet...so strange to continually see, not our normal west to east Atlantic weather though far from it. What it holds for the coming months god knows but by god I want that continent to cool down.

Its an amplified jet, and a sluggish one, that's been the theme of 2022, lost count the amount of times low pressure has spun to our SW this year caught between high pressure blocks to west and east. It makes for a potentially interesting end to 2022 in terms of non zonal flow.

[Ross90]

The trough is really getting squeezed hard by day 10, possibly a path to a more settled spell as the lp has nowhere to go other than ne.

Edited October 18, 2022 by Ross90