Model Output Discussion - Autumn arrives

[Rain All Night]

11 hours ago, northwestsnow said:

Yup.

Dreadful pattern ,basically a west based - NAO which promotes mild Europe and sometimes a very wet UK as systems stall near our shores.

On a brighter note EC46 has the pattern flipping as we head into November with blocking High in the North Atlantic which if nothing else provide something more seasonal...

With Exeter and EC 46 on the date page I'm hopeful of colder drier conditions come early November, we then look to see if the projected N Atlantic block can push towards Iceland to open the possibility of a frigid NE'ly with heavy snow showers blown in  off the North Sea..

You never know ...

 

Where does one view the 46-day ECM ensemble outputs?

[damianslaw]

55 minutes ago, Ross90 said:

The trough is really getting squeezed hard by day 10, possibly a path to a more settled spell as the lp has nowhere to go other than ne.

Yes eventual direction as everything shunts east. 

[mb018538]

Short term we still have no consensus about the rainfall tomorrow. Look at the UKV versus the ARPEGE for 12z tomorrow....heavy rain clipping the E/SE on the UKV, or much further inland and more widespread on the ARPEGE. GFS even has it somewhere else, so it could be a look out the window and see job.

 

Beyond tomorrow it's looking fairly wet in all areas with low pressure dominating, though generally wetter in the west:

[Penrith Snow]

In recent winters we have become used to big high pressure slugs over Europe but the one now growing over Europe is a monster!

Looking at the ECM beyond 144 and If you use the 1020mb isobar, one high pressure now extends from Northern Norway to within a few hundred miles of the equator, that's a block affecting a whole section of the globe. I don't think I have ever seen anything like it?

If this is a sign of the winter to come then we will be lucky to see frost never mind snow.

Andy

[knocker]

10 hours ago, RainAllNight said:

Where does one view the 46-day ECM ensemble outputs?

https://charts.ecmwf.int/

[northwestsnow]

As alluded to yesterday the outlook is 

[Mike Poole]

Well, I think you could describe ECM this morning at T192 as a plume!

Just with one eye on winter, I’ve been keeping my eye on the stratosphere, and there is just a hint at the end of most GFS runs of possible warming.  Although a November SSW would be rare - the last one was 29/11/68 - I think we might be in with a shout this year of something early, possibly tying up with the thoughts of northern blocking in early winter.  Just signs as I say of some warming in the ‘usual places’ putting pressure on the vortex, e.g. GFS 0z, T384:

[Cambrian]

I guess we can for now at least celebrate the rain and perhaps it’s only right that we do. I must admit that I found aspects of the summer quite scary. The heat was exceptional, and added to that was the built-in trepidation that it very likely won’t be nearly as exceptional in the future. The more long-lasting issue from the summer into autumn though is the drought. 

The 0z GFS op accumulated total precipitation charts for the next 7 and 10 days show a sustained and steady release from its grip. The rain just keeps on coming!

 

The 0z GFS short term climate charts are in agreement - above average temperatures over virtually all of inland Europe over the next week,

most of Britain with one and a half to three times average rainfall,

and a recovery in ground water levels over the UK and Ireland,

indeed an improvement over the coming week more widely over Western Europe - all in all, the strongest signal for drought relief to date. 

Mild, wet weather is never a blockbuster theme on here, but I’m really glad to see it at this point in the autumn, the best chance of putting a meaningful dent in those groundwater deficits, not just in places (like mine) where they normally recover quickly enough following a dry spell. The other reason for not minding it now is that this kind of setup is so common at this time of the year irrespective of the kind of winter we get thereafter. In its way, this weather type is quite seasonal for our autumn - and hopefully the prelude to a more seasonal winter too.

[northwestsnow]

Following on from Cambrians excellent post an October wet spell isn't the end of the world.

Someone can correct me but I believe Oct/ Nov were wet in 2009 and 2010 ..precursor pattern to an early winter Northern latitude blocking regime ?

[richie3846]

37 minutes ago, Cambrian said:

I guess we can for now at least celebrate the rain and perhaps it’s only right that we do. I must admit that I found aspects of the summer quite scary. The heat was exceptional, and added to that was the built-in trepidation that it very likely won’t be nearly as exceptional in the future. The more long-lasting issue from the summer into autumn though is the drought. 

The 0z GFS op accumulated total precipitation charts for the next 7 and 10 days show a sustained and steady release from its grip. The rain just keeps on coming!

 

The 0z GFS short term climate charts are in agreement - above average temperatures over virtually all of inland Europe over the next week,

most of Britain with one and a half to three times average rainfall,

and a recovery in ground water levels over the UK and Ireland,

indeed an improvement over the coming week more widely over Western Europe - all in all, the strongest signal for drought relief to date. 

Mild, wet weather is never a blockbuster theme on here, but I’m really glad to see it at this point in the autumn, the best chance of putting a meaningful dent in those groundwater deficits, not just in places (like mine) where they normally recover quickly enough following a dry spell. The other reason for not minding it now is that this kind of setup is so common at this time of the year irrespective of the kind of winter we get thereafter. In its way, this weather type is quite seasonal for our autumn - and hopefully the prelude to a more seasonal winter too.

Excellent post thanks. If I may focus in on that rainfall a little more, as I don't share the view that it'll be all that wet in drought areas, based solely on the graphics you have kindly provided, so not taking into account any of my own model interpretation:

I zoomed in a bit on the graphic, and the white colour is 75 to 150 percent of average. Now I know this is broad brush stuff, but my initial assessment of that information is that the south may be a little above average in patches with other patches of the south being around average or maybe slightly below. Given the south is on a significant deficit for this stage in the month, IMO, if this graphic was close to accurate, we could expect to return to maybe around average rainfall for October, maybe still a little below. 

In my view this rain could act as 'catch up' rain that we've missed out on in the south since the heavy rain at the beginning of September, but because many areas have not seen decent rain since around the 10th of September, I suspect this spell could be a false dawn in terms of drought relief. Especially so as the growing season has enjoyed a little extension with plenty of sun and warm temps in early October. Rainfall in the south, ballpark figure, has been less than half of normal from the period 10th September to the present day. 

[sheikhy]

No agreement what so ever on tonights rainfall!!!ukv takes it east anglia south east!!gfs clobbers midlands fully!ecm some where in between!!

[damianslaw]

1 hour ago, northwestsnow said:

Following on from Cambrians excellent post an October wet spell isn't the end of the world.

Someone can correct me but I believe Oct/ Nov were wet in 2009 and 2010 ..precursor pattern to an early winter Northern latitude blocking regime ?

Ive mentioned Nov 09 before, very wet indeed... Autumn 2010 was drier, but both saw blocked amplified set ups, similiar to this Autumn.

[mushymanrob]

On 16/10/2022 at 20:23, Froze were the Days said:

 

Hope this helps.

Hi, where can i view these charts?, the old link to S Lees page doesnt bring them up now...

TIA

[Premiere Neige]

3 hours ago, Mike Poole said:

Well, I think you could describe ECM this morning at T192 as a plume!

Just with one eye on winter, I’ve been keeping my eye on the stratosphere, and there is just a hint at the end of most GFS runs of possible warming.  Although a November SSW would be rare - the last one was 29/11/68 - I think we might be in with a shout this year of something early, possibly tying up with the thoughts of northern blocking in early winter.  Just signs as I say of some warming in the ‘usual places’ putting pressure on the vortex, e.g. GFS 0z, T384:

Quite a few models seeing weaker than average zonal winds through late autumn and the first half of winter so this would tie in.....

[Froze were the Days]

Hopefully this will enlarge...taken from Dr Simon Lee's twitter page of the MSLP anomalies this month for the coming months...I'd bin JMA they always go for a blocked cold outlook at this time of year only to back down as we approach Winter proper.

Edited October 19, 2022 by Froze were the Days

[richie3846]

1 hour ago, sheikhy said:

No agreement what so ever on tonights rainfall!!!ukv takes it east anglia south east!!gfs clobbers midlands fully!ecm some where in between!!

I've said before, rain from the south is almost always a nowcast! It was also the case the last time we had rain from the south, if you can remember that band that had a definite edge line to it, around the M4. It took until less than 24 hours for the models to get it right. 

[Frigid]

T384 on GFS6z.. I know it's very unlikely but it would be great to see this materialise 

[Frosty.]

Wow!..this from the depths of the 6z op drew me out of hibernation!..will it verify?..of course not!..but I’m a coldie so it’s a GREAT chart!  

 

Edited October 19, 2022 by jon snow

[knocker]

2 hours ago, mushymanrob said:

Hi, where can i view these charts?, the old link to S Lees page doesnt bring them up now...

TIA

You can see the C3S outputs here mushy

https://climate.copernicus.eu/how-read-c3s-seasonal-forecast

[Frosty.]

P20 take a bow! .. there is at least a modicum of support from the GEFS 6z for the operational, plus a few others on a similar track!… i hope we see several early tastes of winter before winter arrives!…I’m probably deluded, but at least I’m happy.. or am I?.. !  

Edited October 19, 2022 by jon snow

[reef]

Flashbacks to Halloween 2014 on the 6z GFS run. It has kept hinting at this for a few runs now.

 

Widespread 18-20C in England and Wales.

[Methuselah]

Ooh er, missus. What a lovely and warm Ten-Day Trend. Stick that up your energy-supplier and laugh!

 

[minus10]

1 hour ago, Ed Stone said:

Ooh er, missus. What a lovely and warm Ten-Day Trend. Stick that up your energy-supplier and laugh!

 

Back to the west/east split for rainfull next week..

[minus10]

No sign of an end to summer on this gfs 12zchart for end of October for a good part of southern/central Europe..

20 deg still being shown for parts of the south and east of England too..

No wonder i am finding very active growth still in the gardens with this warmth and rain at times ...grasses growing more now than they have done all summer....

[feb1991blizzard]

slow moving trough pumping waa up W Greenland.

Edited October 19, 2022 by feb1991blizzard