Model Output Discussion - Autumn arrives

[Ghost of winters past]

1 hour ago, minus10 said:

Well the gfs 6z still continuing with the same story mainly with southerly based flows, warm and wet at times until near end of the run but even then no clear signal for any drastic change. This caught my eye though...

Potent storm to the west of Ireland in the trough to the left exit of the jet at 270 hrs..

 

Although in Fi I think it shows the potential in this set up for sudden potent storms to develop given the energy available with the heat still from the south...one to watch...

Yes ..classic "U" dip in the jet stream putting us on the mild side from our friends from the near continent southerly wind flow, strong enough to put some real energy into that mature low. Interesting times ahead.

Ghost.

[Frosty.]

I Wendy..I Wanda..I wonder…. I W..W.. what crime coldies have committed to see a chart like this on November 1st and indeedy doody autumn so far?!!! …I can only hope things will improve by December 1st!

 

 

[Allseasons-Si]

34 minutes ago, jon snow said:

I Wendy..I Wanda..I wonder…. I W..W.. what crime coldies have committed to see a chart like this on November 1st and indeedy doody autumn so far?!!! …I can only hope things will improve by December 1st!

 

 

Let's hope for a complete turn around as the run further on shows this,...fl i know and purely JFF

arctic heights like this would surely put a spanner in the pv and cause some kind of reversal in the AO

great NH view it is and i have seen the gfs do this in some earlier runs inc the cfs.

P.S. don't stare at the gif for too long,...it sends things spnning the other way when you look at something else lol

Edited October 22, 2022 by Allseasons-si
added gif/added text

[Don]

19 minutes ago, jon snow said:

I Wendy..I Wanda..I wonder…. I W..W.. what crime coldies have committed to see a chart like this on November 1st and indeedy doody autumn so far?!!! …I can only hope things will improve by December 1st!

 

Well, I suspect most coldies have contributed to climate change, that's our crime!!   

[Newberryone]

Interesting to see if today's 12z Ecm run will continue the theme of a northerly tracking jet in its latter frames as has been shown on 2 of its most recent runs. Heights to the south have been a recurring feature so much this year that I think one can feel confident that the turn of the month will see things settling down again or at least the all too familiar north/south split. One would hope that we lose the tropical airmass for something more seasonal come the time but I wouldn’t anticipate any major cooling owing to pressure building from the south.

[minus10]

2 hours ago, Allseasons-si said:

Let's hope for a complete turn around as the run further on shows this,...fl i know and purely JFF

arctic heights like this would surely put a spanner in the pv and cause some kind of reversal in the AO

great NH view it is and i have seen the gfs do this in some earlier runs inc the cfs.

P.S. don't stare at the gif for too long,...it sends things spnning the other way when you look at something else lol

Aporopriate vortex given its the power of the Doctor tomorrow... (for the Doctor Who fans among us..)...sorry being off topic mods...

Edited October 22, 2022 by minus10

[Eagle Eye]

20 hours ago, Eagle Eye said:

 

 

Well, after that 180 page document summarised, I'm getting my friend Olivis to pick between a choice of 3 docuemnts every week for the next 3 years and I will summarise each document by the end of each week, so by the end of the 3 years when including holidays I should have read nearly 150 documents on Meteorology by the time I'm hopefully starting university. Don't worry, I haven't made her do it she was genuinely up for doing it, she loves learning and helping others learn more than I do although she's more of a mathematician (maybe I should ask her to do the mathematical stuff in the future) than a Meteorologist.

In the meanwhile, the effect on the enhanced wave activity propagating northwards from the tropics is being felt in the Rossby action of the atmosphere and that could likely mean that blocking persists for a while although beyond that with enough upwards forcing the NAO may be reversed by the eastward forcing on the Rossby Waves but you can get different areas of the bases of the NAO and so I wouldn't be willing to call it.

[stodge]

Evening all

We've seen this before in previous autumns - the struggle of LP to get across the Meridian and into Europe. The LP coming into Scandinavia are coming down from the Pole rather than from the west leaving Atlantic LP to disrupt close to the British Isles with heights to both SE and SW.

The net effect is to keep S'ly sourced air flows so nothing too cold but increasing chances of rain as the LP disrupt over us.

[ANYWEATHER]

12 minutes ago, stodge said:

Evening all

We've seen this before in previous autumns - the struggle of LP to get across the Meridian and into Europe. The LP coming into Scandinavia are coming down from the Pole rather than from the west leaving Atlantic LP to disrupt close to the British Isles with heights to both SE and SW.

The net effect is to keep S'ly sourced air flows so nothing too cold but increasing chances of rain as the LP disrupt over us.

Yes, but is the Ecm really for real? ...? Really it can't go on with these synoptics.  Gfs shows a different scenario. There will be a sudden change in the synoptics in the days ahead. Ecm is completely wrong?...as  time goes on....computer models are becoming useless in forecasting medium to long range...

[mb018538]

Could see temps up at 21/22c later next week as yet another absurdly mild month draws to a close with long fetch southerly winds. October will be way above average, joining every other month this year in positive territory. It literally hasn’t felt like autumn at all this year barring a few breezy days. We’ve even had thunderstorm warnings this week. Crazy. 

[minus10]

 

44 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

Could see temps up at 21/22c later next week as yet another absurdly mild month draws to a close with long fetch southerly winds. October will be way above average, joining every other month this year in positive territory. It literally hasn’t felt like autumn at all this year barring a few breezy days. We’ve even had thunderstorm warnings this week. Crazy. 

Agreed it hasnt felt like Autumn at all. Warm humid air...mid level storms..warm sunny spells...very mild nights...lush green grass...plants growing like crazy still. ......and with tomorrow and next sunday's ecm 12z chart looking like these...

....i dont think there will be any change in that at least till the new month...changes that do occur are in FI anyway and as we have seen this year changes in weather pattern keep being delayed..they will happen at some point no doubt but it looks like we will be well into November before they do... at least we are having some rain to rehydrate the soil...also the Autumn leaf colours look fantastic this year...

Edited October 22, 2022 by minus10

[BelgianBlizzard]

November 1... Daytime temperatures positive almost everywhere in Europe .

Charts can only get better from here

 

[Don]

3 hours ago, stodge said:

Evening all

We've seen this before in previous autumns - the struggle of LP to get across the Meridian and into Europe. The LP coming into Scandinavia are coming down from the Pole rather than from the west leaving Atlantic LP to disrupt close to the British Isles with heights to both SE and SW.

The net effect is to keep S'ly sourced air flows so nothing too cold but increasing chances of rain as the LP disrupt over us.

What I would say is we have seen this in the past in the lead up to cold winters.  I'm reluctant to say that is going to be the case this year, mainly due to the mere fact that every month in 2022 has been warmer than average, but interesting all the same!

[Beanz]

3 hours ago, mb018538 said:

Could see temps up at 21/22c later next week as yet another absurdly mild month draws to a close with long fetch southerly winds. October will be way above average, joining every other month this year in positive territory. It literally hasn’t felt like autumn at all this year barring a few breezy days. We’ve even had thunderstorm warnings this week. Crazy. 

Tough to admit, but this is the new normal.  Hey, look on the bright side, the more above average months we have the more the average will increase and eventually in a few decades time we might have a better chance of below average tenors occurring again…albeit we’ll be wearing sunscreen in November by that point 

[Don]

16 minutes ago, Beanz said:

Tough to admit, but this is the new normal.  Hey, look on the bright side, the more above average months we have the more the average will increase and eventually in a few decades time we might have a better chance of below average tenors occurring again…albeit we’ll be wearing sunscreen in November by that point 

Not strictly true as the sun will not be any stronger, however, that will mean we will be able to go to the beach and not slap that horrible greasy sunscreen on!!

Edited October 22, 2022 by Don

[Beanz]

5 minutes ago, Don said:

Not strictly true as the sun will not be any stronger, however, that will mean we will be able to go to the beach and not slap that horrible greasy sunscreen on!!

Every cloud

[Don]

2 minutes ago, Beanz said:

Every cloud

Hmm, I suppose so..... 

[northwestsnow]

1 hour ago, BelgianBlizzard said:

November 1... Daytime temperatures positive almost everywhere in Europe .

Charts can only get better from here

 

The models are churning out God awful synoptics unless you like mild wet and windy..

EC 46 will be interesting Monday night because I can't see a hope in hell of any HP sticking around at the moment.Hoping the model sticks with the Atlantic blocking as we head through Nov I  really don't want another Autumn month go down the mild wet and windy tube.

[Don]

13 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

The models are churning out God awful synoptics unless you like mild wet and windy..

EC 46 will be interesting Monday night because I can't see a hope in hell of any HP sticking around at the moment.Hoping the model sticks with the Atlantic blocking as we head through Nov I  really don't want another Autumn month go down the mild wet and windy tube.

At least it's not December or January 1st though, things have to change by then!!

[Rain All Night]

"Around the turn of the month, showers and longer spells of rain are expected across much of the UK, accompanied by stronger winds and a risk of gales, especially in the west. Temperatures likely to continue to be mild overnight and warm during the day, trending above normal for this time of year." - Met Office

It is interesting to me to look at all the similar but different illustrations of this scenario that we have available to us, and how those differences can be much bigger than they first look... like how the GFS operational output has just managed to finally drag a cooler air mass successfully over the UK and France at the point in time shown, whereas the other two operational outputs have not.

 

[syed2878]

Hi folks isn’t it time we opened a new thread I think this one has gone on long enough

[IDO]

Subtle differences between the two main models at D10!

ECM>  GFS op>

Add the GFS control to the mix>

Must be some variables messing with the models at the moment?

[KTtom]

10 hours ago, mb018538 said:

Could see temps up at 21/22c later next week as yet another absurdly mild month draws to a close with long fetch southerly winds. October will be way above average, joining every other month this year in positive territory. It literally hasn’t felt like autumn at all this year barring a few breezy days. We’ve even had thunderstorm warnings this week. Crazy. 

Had a cracking (excuse the pun!) night of storms Thursday night, constant lightning for an hour in the late evening. Another week of southerly winds being predicted, had this set up occurred in July we could have been in a spot of bother with numerous consecutive days threatening the 40 mark.

[SLEETY]

ECM ramping the heat up as we head towards November.Could hit 70f Friday and the heat continues as we hit November,crazy stuff.

[richie3846]

15 minutes ago, SLEETY said:

ECM ramping the heat up as we head towards November.Could hit 70f Friday and the heat continues as we hit November,crazy stuff.

I was looking at the day records. 20.6c 28th, 19.2 29th. I suspect if the ECM is close to the mark, these records could go.