Model Output Discussion - Autumn arrives

[northwestsnow]

Just now, feb1991blizzard said:

slow moving pumping waa up W Greenland.

You are now in Deansgate heat hub it won't effect you.

Ps, hope you well Feb , GFS 12Z certainly building a block as per Exeter..

[feb1991blizzard]

1 minute ago, northwestsnow said:

You are now in Deansgate heat hub it won't effect you.

Ps, hope you well Feb , GFS 12Z certainly building a block as per Exeter..

hope your well - yes desperately want to move to huddersfield or anywhere between E Oldham and W Huddersfield but unlikely.

[feb1991blizzard]

Id take this run - colder and some cold pool starting to build on continent - nowhere near snow territory but decent starter pattern.

 

[damianslaw]

Its a stuck pattern for the foreseeable, trough to our west/sw, ridge to our east, mean flow predominantly between west and south. Mild for all, very mild further SE.

Longer term, need to wait for upstream changes, will the pattern shift east.. or west..  will we see something akin to GFS 12z, which shows the ridge backing west and south west.. and then NE bringing a scandi high. One thing that seems absent is a powering of the jet.. leading to a very slow moving pattern, we've seen this since Dec 2020, la nina base state possible reason..

Where has the zonal flow gone? 

[Cambrian]

The 12z ECM op rather emphatically elongates the polar trough running through Greenland as far south as just to the east of the Azores by a week today, bringing us into a southerly fetch up through Iberia and France. For a day or so, the T850s are lower over the Azores than over the UK and Ireland.

  

As a result, it might be a very warm afternoon for late October on day 8 over eastern parts, widely 18 degrees or possibly even higher. Forget Ponta Delgata, head to Peterborough!

 

[Froze were the Days]

8 minutes ago, damianslaw said:

Its a stuck pattern for the foreseeable, trough to our west/sw, ridge to our east, mean flow predominantly between west and south. Mild for all, very mild further SE.

Longer term, need to wait for upstream changes, will the pattern shift east.. or west..  will we see something akin to GFS 12z, which shows the ridge backing west and south west.. and then NE bringing a scandi high. One thing that seems absent is a powering of the jet.. leading to a very slow moving pattern, we've seen this since Dec 2020, la nina base state possible reason..

Where has the zonal flow gone? 

It's waiting til' Winter proper gets underway  but agree with your summarisation of the current situation, day after day of the same stuff and warm continent...almost a stuck west based QBO.

[damianslaw]

12 minutes ago, Froze were the Days said:

It's waiting til' Winter proper gets underway  but agree with your summarisation of the current situation, day after day of the same stuff and warm continent...almost a stuck west based QBO.

Taking a break from model watching for a week or so, as I do from time to time when everything is very sluggish... 

[Jordan S]

Looking back to my post on 19th September, the extended outlook mentioning low pressure dominating over the UK with higher pressure likely to be more dominant over the northwest Atlantic being very close in terms of time period, although the pattern didn't take place until a few days after the time period I mentioned 7-14th but overall was very close and sometimes good to look back and compare.

As for my more recent post, mentioning an absence of southerly winds for the rest of the month... Er ironically southerly winds or winds originating from the south being frequent in the coming days with low pressure out to our west and southwest. So although very unsettled at times as was already expected, it won't be cooler than normal as possibly anticipated in previous post. As said before, being very unsettled for the final 10 days of October with frequent rain for many and needed rain particularly for central, southern and eastern England and strong winds at times, particularly in the south and west towards the end of the month.

One such very wet spell this morning over southern, central and then northern/northeastern areas of England with 10-30mm of rain.

Further persistent and at times heavy rain running through similar areas tomorrow along with strong winds and possibly coastal gales.

Looking into early November, high pressure looks likely to gradually build close to or over southern UK, with the high stationed more likely to our south and east with temperatures likely remaining above normal, though still the chance of some frost in the north.

GFS this morning shows a fairly close example though that high over southern UK possibly more likely a tad further southeast than the chart shows with rain still likely to effect parts of the UK but mostly confined to the north especially Scotland with mostly dry or dry conditions more likely developing fairly widely over most of England and Wales for a time, particularly the southeast of England.

Perhaps the high declining once again allowing more unsettled weather into all areas later on into the second week of November with temperatures lowering slightly as colder northwesterly winds perhaps take hold.

[jamesthemonkeh]

CFSv2 has an interesting anomoly pattern for December:

Usual caveats apply.

[carinthian]

Morning all. ECM heralding quite a change for months end. The advance of the trough pushes warm air advection well into Eastern Europe with temperatures taking quite a drop over NW Europe. The upper wind flow continues to be fragmented and tending more of a southerly track across the Atlantic into Euroland by the end of the month. Whether the developing ridge holds to the NW of The British isles will be crucial to maintaining a spell of more seasonal weather. Encouragingly, a good chart below for those looking for some colder conditions, especially for the UK !

C

[Downburst]

Well today and 7 days out from here there is no real noticeable change. Warmer than usual and wet at times. Looking deeper into the forecast it does seem like High Pressure builds to the west or if not over these parts and things get drier and a little benign into November proper, but that's never certain. I'd wonder though where the next frost is going to come from and when.

 

Next Thursday 27th

[richie3846]

On 19/10/2022 at 11:05, sheikhy said:

No agreement what so ever on tonights rainfall!!!ukv takes it east anglia south east!!gfs clobbers midlands fully!ecm some where in between!!

Well the East and South East enjoyed some heavy stuff this morning, west of London, mostly lighter rain with not very high totals, a few mm possibly. Whilst the models did struggle with the details, it was fairly accurately forecasted if one accepted that the details were too messy to know, and that it was just likely to rain, heavier in the East, which turned out to be accurately modelled, and any rain further West more marginal, which was also accurately modelled. 

[sheikhy]

2 hours ago, richie3846 said:

Well the East and South East enjoyed some heavy stuff this morning, west of London, mostly lighter rain with not very high totals, a few mm possibly. Whilst the models did struggle with the details, it was fairly accurately forecasted if one accepted that the details were too messy to know, and that it was just likely to rain, heavier in the East, which turned out to be accurately modelled, and any rain further West more marginal, which was also accurately modelled. 

Got some heavy rainfall for the last 3 or 4 hours here!just clearing away now!!didnt miss out on it completely in the end!!

[richie3846]

1 minute ago, sheikhy said:

Got some heavy rainfall for the last 3 or 4 hours here!just clearing away now!!didnt miss out on it completely in the end!!

We had several hours too, but it was too light to be of much use. 2 to 4mm recorded around the area, no heavy bursts at all. The models indicate a persistent low pressure south west to west, over the coming 10 days, so hoping that results in some drought repair for southern and Eastern England, as we saw today, a low pressure to the southwest doesn't always prevent the East getting a fair share.

[Kentspur]

5 hours ago, jamesthemonkeh said:

CFSv2 has an interesting anomoly pattern for December:

Usual caveats apply.

Is that almost a "sausage high" over Scotland& Southern Scandinavia. If only it could go a tad further north . Speaking of Scotland I'm there on Sunday for a few days looks like a lot of rain this time

Edited October 20, 2022 by Kentspur

[Frosty.]

I’m dreaming of a.. ..cold early November!…looking at the GEFS 6z, there’s an albeit slim chance of that occurring!…I’m fed up of warmth!!!, it’s time for a new prime minister.. …. …..l mean  cold!…… ..are there any more coldies out there?… anyhoo, for what it’s worth, Bungle agrees!!! …

 

 

 

Edited October 20, 2022 by jon snow

[Frosty.]

Just for fun, the CFS 0z looks interesting, at times.. .. …in FI! ️ 

Edited October 20, 2022 by jon snow

[TSNWK]

Just now, jon snow said:

Just for fun, the CFS 0z looks interesting, at times.. in FI! ️ 

Uppers not playing ball.. 

[Frosty.]

13 minutes ago, TSNWK said:

Uppers not playing ball.. 

still 3 months away.. plenty of time for the uppers to erm, get downers!  

Edited October 20, 2022 by jon snow

[Methuselah]

12 minutes ago, jon snow said:

Just for fun, the CFS 0z looks interesting, at times.. .. …in FI! ️ 

Phew! It's only the CFS!

[Allseasons-Si]

2 hours ago, TSNWK said:

Uppers not playing ball.. 

Lol

what goes uppers must come downers and lets hope it's snowballs and not graupel...

in the meantime,...the 12z gfs throws this out,...did someone mention a Urals block down the line in here somewhere

northern hemisphetically this looks delicious would you say not,...JFF of course

[TSNWK]

42 minutes ago, Allseasons-si said:

Lol

what goes uppers must come downers and lets hope it's snowballs and not graupel...

in the meantime,...the 12z gfs throws this out,...did someone mention a Urals block down the line in here somewhere

northern hemisphetically this looks delicious would you say not,...JFF of course

Bit messy to our north west.. could do with losing that vortex lope over greenie...

Nice uppers on a direct hit though.

Be gone next run.

Ps.. I'm just clearing the throat and brushing down a few phrases in readiness for winter 2022

[Allseasons-Si]

Into Jan 2023 we go then,...i am dreaming of a 2010!!!

the cfs keeps on churning out charts like this,...summat's a foot

Edited October 20, 2022 by Allseasons-si
typo

[Allseasons-Si]

Just took a gander at the CS3 monthly mean ECM anomalies and Nov/Dec and Jan are looking good to me...

Nov and Dec have +ve heights to our NW then transferring over to our NE over Scandi in Jan.

[Cheshire Freeze]

33 minutes ago, Allseasons-si said:

Into Jan 2023 we go then,...i am dreaming of a 2010!!!

the cfs keeps on churning out charts like this,...summat's a foot

Stunning chart