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Model Output Discussion - Autumn arrives

Cheshire Freeze
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Paul
Message added by Paul,

Please double-check the contents of your post before hitting submit to make sure it is model related. For general discussion about the weather this autumn, the Autumn 2022 - Moans, Ramps and Chat is already very active, so please head over there.

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bluearmy Maestro

bluearmy

Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans
Posted
9 minutes ago, sheikhy said:

Ukv had 23 or 24 for me today!instead its 27 degrees right now!way off!its actualy quite hot outside!!!

Don’t look at ukv then ……

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sheikhy Maestro

sheikhy

Posted
  • Location: Leicester
  • Location: Leicester
Posted
15 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Don’t look at ukv then ……

Is it not meant to be better than the ecm considering its a short range high reso model?!!you would think it would do better than the king model at 24 or 48 hours out?

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ChezWeather Experienced

ChezWeather

Posted
  • Location: Chesterfield, Derbyshire, 110m
  • Location: Chesterfield, Derbyshire, 110m
Posted

6z GFS had a max temp of 22c for my location this afternoon, its currently 26c under a blanket of cloud, pretty impressive stuff 

Away from max temps, i wonder if the overnight min record could be under threat on Monday PM, Tues AM 

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mb018538 Maestro

mb018538

Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
Posted
10 minutes ago, sheikhy said:

Is it not meant to be better than the ecm considering its a short range high reso model?!!you would think it would do better than the king model at 24 or 48 hours out?

It should be really. For 0-5 days it ought to be the best. If it’s good enough for the met office, it should be good enough for us mere mortals!

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mb018538 Maestro

mb018538

Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
Posted
33 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Icon delays the 20c isotherm until Monday daylight into Cornwall 

tues hottest of the two days ahead of the frontal breakdown 

Further delays….see what the big hitters have to say shortly!

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Paul Maestro

Paul

Posted
  • Location: Aviemore
  • Location: Aviemore
Posted

Another new model viewer to share today

This time it's the ECMWF EPS (ensembles) - hi-res graphs. There are free and extra versions available - the extra one has some more features on the chart viewer and a wider range of data types.

 

mogreps-image.png


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Mapantz Maestro

Mapantz

Posted
  • Location: Dorset
  • Weather Preferences: warehamwx.co.uk
  • Location: Dorset
Posted
1 minute ago, Paul said:

Another new model viewer to share today

This time it's the ECMWF EPS (ensembles) - hi-res graphs. There are free and extra versions available - the extra one has some more features on the chart viewer and a wider range of data types.

 

mogreps-image.png

 

Are you using Highcharts?

I'm on a powerful machine, but those graphs are extremely slow and using a lot of resources.

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Paul Maestro

Paul

Posted
  • Location: Aviemore
  • Location: Aviemore
Posted
Just now, Mapantz said:

Are you using Highcharts?

I'm on a powerful machine, but those graphs are extremely slow and using a lot of resources.

Yes, it's plotting a lot of data - assuming you're in extra, switch off displaying the full eps and switch to max, min and spread if your machine is struggling with it. 

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qwertyK Enthusiast

qwertyK

Posted
  • Location: Brentwood, Essex
  • Location: Brentwood, Essex
Posted
6 hours ago, Djdazzle said:

Don't expect detail for next Sunday and Monday yet. The models were wrong about today only yesterday. Wasn't meant to be cloudy today.

The weather forecast always had it down as cloudy for where I was. 

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Singularity Maestro

Singularity

Posted
  • Location: New Forest (Western)
  • Weather Preferences: Fascinated by extreme weather. Despise drizzle.
  • Location: New Forest (Western)
Posted

image.thumb.png.b0cfc42c2795004f309111227911d797.png image.thumb.png.8a8c5519e8e7bb615805dd28e77fc2c7.png

Today, we're (at long last) reaching the point where the all-important cut-off low is actually forming, giving some true situation data to work with.

The impact on the GFS 12z compared to 06z has been to shift the low even further south, by about 50 miles as of 9 am GMT Sunday.

At this rate it really could stay cut-off right through Tue... but that will depend on how the N. Atlantic profile shapes up, with is another major source of uncertainty - and where the 00z ECM raised big questions with an approaching low instead of high on Monday.

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Mapantz Maestro

Mapantz

Posted
  • Location: Dorset
  • Weather Preferences: warehamwx.co.uk
  • Location: Dorset
Posted
3 minutes ago, Paul said:

Yes, it's plotting a lot of data - assuming you're in extra, switch off displaying the full eps and switch to max, min and spread if your machine is struggling with it. 

I'll have a play later as I'm nipping out.

Have you added boost.js as well? It is useful for lots of plots.

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Downburst Seasoned

Downburst

Posted
  • Location: Ireland - East Coast
  • Location: Ireland - East Coast
Posted
46 minutes ago, January Snowstorm said:

Hot run from the Icon for Ireland

Our own record of 33C must surely be under threat...

I take it you mean to mention Monday? I can't see 33 being reached to be honest. There is too much westerly sourced upper air over Ireland, southern eastern England is obviously getting the warmer uppers. Still hot enough for me. Decided to take Monday off to enjoy the weekend. Why not.

image.thumb.png.1ba1d8eff4c6027ba3cbf0d96c5f623b.pngimage.thumb.png.49ba46ce6a21d042f916441a9567c75a.png

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Paul Maestro

Paul

Posted
  • Location: Aviemore
  • Location: Aviemore
Posted
1 minute ago, Mapantz said:

I'll have a play later as I'm nipping out.

Have you added boost.js as well? It is useful for lots of plots.

I don't think we are tbh, but will ask @Karl in the morning. 

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MattStoke Maestro

MattStoke

Posted
  • Location: Longton, Stoke-on-Trent.
  • Location: Longton, Stoke-on-Trent.
Posted
2 minutes ago, Singularity said:

image.thumb.png.b0cfc42c2795004f309111227911d797.png image.thumb.png.8a8c5519e8e7bb615805dd28e77fc2c7.png

Today, we're (at long last) reaching the point where the all-important cut-off low is actually forming, giving some true situation data to work with.

The impact on the GFS 12z compared to 06z has been to shift the low even further south, by about 50 miles as of 9 am GMT Sunday.

At this rate it really could stay cut-off right through Tue... but that will depend on how the N. Atlantic profile shapes up, with is another major source of uncertainty - and where the 00z ECM raised big questions with an approaching low instead of high on Monday.

Highest 850hpa temperatures moving in earlier on the 12z though.

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Allseasons-Si Maestro

Allseasons-Si

Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
Posted (edited)

Whoah!!!,...UKMO day 6

UW144-21.thumb.gif.09cd4527de8b0b3de1d6dda5f3054236.gifUW144-7.thumb.gif.59dc30a61a4f21fcb85e205e7a02714c.gif

whereas the gfs is not so far north at day 6 but could be delayed a tad,...it does show Godzilla to our south on the 850's ROAR!!!

gfs-0-144.thumb.png.4be8ce787841df6ed3f09797adc440d1.pnggfs-1-144.thumb.png.bcc950f825c4f66d37007f6ef1ab6453.pngdownload.thumb.jpg.8f5cc92f55a14987a3be60a85711ccf3.jpg

Edited by Allseasons-si
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Captain Shortwave Maestro

Captain Shortwave

Posted
  • Location: Peterborough
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and frost in the winter. Hot and sunny, thunderstorms in the summer.
  • Location: Peterborough
Posted (edited)

I think a very hot Sunday is looking very unlikely now. Low thirties still very possible though (GFS 31c).

Monday looks better on the GFS as the heat looks a little more robust (So probably into the mid thirties comfortably). UKMO looks hot to very hot too.

Lets see what trend we get with the track of that low, it would not surprise me if it’s track towards us is delayed somewhat.

Edited by Captain Shortwave
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Downburst Seasoned

Downburst

Posted
  • Location: Ireland - East Coast
  • Location: Ireland - East Coast
Posted

Anyone concerned about cloud cover for this event, look at Sunday 6.00pm? this is total cloud cover. Is this a concern or is GFS not reliable on this?

image.thumb.png.aaa246c2b852b8cd55ff0f738d2c00da.png

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Snowy L Maestro

Snowy L

Posted
  • Location: Burton-on-Trent (90m), Larnaka most Augusts
  • Location: Burton-on-Trent (90m), Larnaka most Augusts
Posted (edited)
2 minutes ago, Allseasons-si said:

Whoah!!!,...UKMO day 6

UW144-21.thumb.gif.09cd4527de8b0b3de1d6dda5f3054236.gifUW144-7.thumb.gif.59dc30a61a4f21fcb85e205e7a02714c.gif

Perfect. Monday needs to be the day, low pressure too close on Tuesday on most models. If the 20C line can get in place 6 hours or so earlier than shown on the UKMO run the record has a decent chance of going.

Edited by Snowy L
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