Model Output Discussion - Autumn arrives

[sheikhy]

Gfs hot all the way through to the end of next week for england and wales!!and ukmo well that looks even hotter!!!!this really is quite something this year!!!imagine if the autumn/winter is just dry cold with plenty of harsh frosts!!!!

[SteveB]

43 minutes ago, sheikhy said:

Gfs hot all the way through to the end of next week for england and wales!!and ukmo well that looks even hotter!!!!this really is quite something this year!!!imagine if the autumn/winter is just dry cold with plenty of harsh frosts!!!!

Imagine if this winter turned out to be wetter and colder than average.   

[clark3r]

Gfs hot all next week until at least Saturday on this run then 3 days of much cooler weather much cooler to what we have seen in weeks then a warm up but obviously this is 1 run and anything past the end of the week is likely to change 

Edited August 5, 2022 by clark3r

[seb]

GFS 0z has all but removed any rain in the desert regions (the tiny amount shown for a run or two yesterday in FI) all the way to the end of the run.

Temps hot all next week then down to average.

I’m talking S & E obviously.

Edited August 5, 2022 by seb

[Dangerous55019]

Morning everyone. 

Its been a little while since I've done this, so lets have a four week look ahead with the CFS V2 to see if it help shed any light on what's going to happen...

Week 1 - 4th to the 10th August: What can I say? Its a high pressure fest, with various areas of high pressure linking up to encircle our latitudes! A spot of high pressure over the north pole, and a belt of low pressure in the middle! So I'd say that we're looking at a week of dry and settled weather.

Week 2 - 11th to the 17th August: High pressure pulls back out into the mid Atlantic, and also towards Scandinavia and Russia. There looks to be a shallow trough of low pressure extending from the pole down towards Iceland. Although nothing in particular showing for us here in the UK, I think that this could leave us in a showery, north westerly air flow. Possible first taste of autumn as summer 2022 starts to fade?

Week 3 - 18th to the 24th August: Pretty similar to week two... Except that the trough f low pressure to our north has faded. I'd say pretty similar to week two, only with less showers... But probably feeling more backendish. 

Week 4 - 25th to the 31st August: Again, rinse and repeat as to weeks two and three! It looks like autumn is starting to pop its head above the metaphorical parapet! 


So there you go! I know there are many folk who don't want to see the back of summer, but we desperately need the rain! Some areas more than others! Hopefully these charts are starting to signal and end to the drought conditions. As ever, time will tell. 

[Man With Beard]

Rainfall over England/Wales until next weekend ... almost non-existent

Temperatures slowly cranking up again over next few days, into the low 30s by midweek seems the consensus, though not currently forecast to get higher than that, and may well plateau around the high 20s/30C mark.

[Captain Shortwave]

Still disagreements from the middle of next week onwards.

Day 5

ECM

High pressure in control across all of the UK 

UKMO

A little flatter with fronts affecting the north of the country. Warmer in the south thanks to a warmer airmass being pushed in from the mid Atlantic.

GFS

Similar to the UKMO, including the rebuilding of the high at day 7

GEM

Whilst it looks similar, the GEM fully displaces the high away and brings cooler and more mixed conditions.

In short, the models tend to back the notion that next week will be mostly settled away from the far north. Plenty of sunshine and very warm to hot conditions at times.

[bluearmy]

In the land of the weak jet steam, the pendulum swings are wide ………..

[Stav]

2 hours ago, sheikhy said:

Gfs hot all the way through to the end of next week for england and wales!!and ukmo well that looks even hotter!!!!this really is quite something this year!!!imagine if the autumn/winter is just dry cold with plenty of harsh frosts!!!!

Well, if it stays dry some areas (including where I live) will be in real trouble.

[Earthshine]

Not really much sign of a breakdown.  Temperatures remaining above average throughout.

[Man With Beard]

Hmmm... there is scope within the ECM mean for another plume next weekend, isn't there? Trough dropping west with a curvature from Iberia towards the UK. Could happen!

[sheikhy]

Simply unreal output from ecm!!now the best and driest/sunniest of the lot!!hot parched conditions all the way to the end!!and the mean seems an even bigger upgrade!!

[MattStoke]

37 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

Hmmm... there is scope within the ECM mean for another plume next weekend, isn't there? Trough dropping west with a curvature from Iberia towards the UK. Could happen!

Quite a few models have shown a potential plume setup but don’t have the very hot air getting near the U.K. Not sure why. Pressure too high, maybe?

[MATTWOLVES 3]

Wow it looks like as soon as any late night output brings signs of a breakdown and some rain the morning runs take it away!

This is a sublime set of ECM runs...Firstly the op looks like summary conditions to continue and the mean looks very solid and backs it up.

I'm loving this output right now but I will get concerned if the jet stays weak and meandering through Autumn! If it stays weak through Winter I may start break dancing if you know what I mean

At the moment folks it is is what it is....so try and enjoy your Weekends.

[Sunny76]

On 01/08/2022 at 14:01, MATTWOLVES said:

I can understand when some are glad to see the back of the intense heat,but I always find it strange when some want to see the back of nice summary conditions! I mean what's worse than waking up to grey dull skies and rain and drizzle every morning... For someone who as suffered from anxiety and low mood disorders and others I know with the same problems....it does absolutely nothing for your general well being!

Regarding that 0z run from GFS it can't be discounted due to its recent success! Regardless of whether we get mid too high 30s or just mid to high 20s....im confident of a very summary spell...and not just several days.

To my eye it looks like a mid week blip before improvements arrive for later this Week and the weekend...this trend following on into next week also. The 6z mean looks very solid for settled conditions to persist...not great for those who are crying out for rain,but great for those who love the outdoors,and for those on holidays with the kids....you can do so much more when the weather is kind!

So I would say enjoy it if you can...Autumn can last for 6 months these days!

But I've a feeling this Winter will be delivering this time around! But more on that in a couple of months time

I’m happy for once that we seem to be holding on to summery sunny weather into the middle of august. 
 

Damp and cold weather can hold off until mid to late September as far as I’m concerned. It will get here eventually, and not something I miss. 

It does look like a thunderstorm might pop up during or after this up and coming period of hot weather. 

[Sunny76]

5 hours ago, sheikhy said:

Gfs hot all the way through to the end of next week for england and wales!!and ukmo well that looks even hotter!!!!this really is quite something this year!!!imagine if the autumn/winter is just dry cold with plenty of harsh frosts!!!!

Bills will go through the roof. I would like a cold sunny winter, but even a mild one will still require us to use the heating.

[sheikhy]

Big upgrade in heat and location of high on the gfs 06z!!very early time frame aswell!!

[MattStoke]

1 minute ago, sheikhy said:

Big upgrade in heat and location of high on the gfs 06z!!very early time frame aswell!!

Iberian low with high pressure over the U.K. Similar setup to July’s extreme heat but the hot air not moving northwards for some reason  

[Captain Shortwave]

28 minutes ago, MattStoke said:

Iberian low with high pressure over the U.K. Similar setup to July’s extreme heat but the hot air not moving northwards for some reason  

The high does need to shift eastwards to allow the heat to fully advect northwards. Still Tuesday through to Saturday (possibly longer) see temperatures into the 30s across central and southern England (Reaching the mid 30s by the end of the week and into the weekend). Only western Scotland misses out thanks to fronts bringing cloud and rain at times. 
In fairness by the time we reach day 9, some would say that was hot enough. 38c towards Wiltshire and Somerset on that Sunday. Again it is a case of watching for the development of any lows towards the Azores and how this interacts with the high over Europe.

Edited August 5, 2022 by Captain Shortwave

[Guest]

Perfect  Big CET coming you’d think. 

Edited August 5, 2022 by Alderc

[mushymanrob]

4 minutes ago, Alderc said:

Perfect  Big CET coming you’d think. 

The CET to the 3rd is 20.1c !.... which makes August so far the warmest on record... of course theres a long way to go yet but with the heatwave looming...

[MattStoke]

42 minutes ago, Captain Shortwave said:

The high does need to shift eastwards to allow the heat to fully advect northwards. Still Tuesday through to Saturday (possibly longer) see temperatures into the 30s across central and southern England (Reaching the mid 30s by the end of the week and into the weekend). Only western Scotland misses out thanks to fronts bringing cloud and rain at times. 
In fairness by the time we reach day 9, some would say that was hot enough. 38c towards Wiltshire and Somerset on that Sunday. Again it is a case of watching for the development of any lows towards the Azores and how this interacts with the high over Europe.

It does eventually get a move on, on the GFS 6z.

Certainly a lot more support for the plume scenario this morning, for the same timeframe as that very hot GFS op run the other day. Not currently anything that extreme showing but it wouldn’t take much….

[sheikhy]

3 minutes ago, MattStoke said:

It does eventually get a move on, on the GFS 6z.

Certainly a lot more support for the plume scenario this morning, for the same timeframe as that very hot GFS op run the other day. Not currently anything that extreme showing but it wouldn’t take much….

It really is a stunning gfs 06z for next week!!

[Captain Shortwave]

12 minutes ago, MattStoke said:

It does eventually get a move on, on the GFS 6z.

Certainly a lot more support for the plume scenario this morning, for the same timeframe as that very hot GFS op run the other day. Not currently anything that extreme showing but it wouldn’t take much….

The only conclusion I can really take from the 06z GFS suite is that the operational is not an outlier. There is a cluster of 5 or so developing a straight southerly for the following weekend, which is potentially even hotter. The control is similar to the operational to the day 9/10 mark.

Not that this means much, but increasing confidence of a fairly widespread hot spell next week. Something more significant in terms of longevity and intensity is definitely on the table.

Edited August 5, 2022 by Captain Shortwave

[MattStoke]

42 minutes ago, Captain Shortwave said:

The only conclusion I can really take from the 06z GFS suite is that the operational is not an outlier. There is a cluster of 5 or so developing a straight southerly for the following weekend, which is potentially even hotter. The control is similar to the operational to the day 9/10 mark.

Not that this means much, but increasing confidence of a fairly widespread hot spell next week. Something more significant in terms of longevity and intensity is definitely on the table.

UKMO would probably go on to deliver similar, and the ECM ens are supportive of a plume.

GFS perturbations 7 and 9 are particularly toasty.