Model Output Discussion - Autumn arrives

[Methuselah]

50 minutes ago, snowsummer said:

So is it actually possible to get a polar low in summer? Or even early autumn? Ive  been on the learners pages ( yet again!) as i was very confused by marks earlier post. 

Unusually cold air needs to overlie relatively warm sea, I think.

Edited August 24, 2022 by Ed Stone

[Allseasons-Si]

Here is an artical from wiki explaining what a polar low is(sorry to derail the thread but this needs nipping in the bud so to speak)

Polar low - Wikipedia

EN.WIKIPEDIA.ORG

As for the models i do not see a polar low in either the 00z ECM nor on the 06z gfs but quite the opposite with plenty of fine weather with the azores high link up to Scandi with Iberian trough to our south in the short turn then Azores high reteating back W/SW  into the mid Atlantic with shallow troughing over Scandi in the mid to longer term,...still fine by this stage but a tad cooler as upper winds veer from west to NW

enjoy the rest of your day folks

[Frosty.]

For sure, there’s plenty of time for rain this autumn! …in the meantime, early-ish September could be quite anticyclonic according to the GEFS 6z!!!!! ️  

Edited August 24, 2022 by jon snow

[Methuselah]

And here's the Met's take on things -- if it doesn't rain here tonight, it might be some time until it does!

 

[Cambrian]

Fair play to the BBC, as early as a fortnight ago they were on to the secret weapon the French have been employing to warp the jet stream. Looks like they’re at it again, in evidence again on the 06z GFS op for day 10. Staying pleasantly warm in the UK and Ireland into early September too. 

  

Still, hardly in the spirit of entente cordiale from a national broadcaster. 

[MATTWOLVES 3]

I tell you what I would say folks is make the most of any rain tomorrow,because it looks seriously scarce over the next 10 days or so. Plenty of settled conditions and remaining warm for many. The icon just shows a chain of Heights around the UK and again there seems to be no clout from the Atlantic sector. Well Mr Atlantic you can stay that way through Winter as well...Dont be upping the anti come December and don't be upsetting me fellow cold chasers come the big time!

I would say the Bank Holiday looks sound for getting out and about and getting any chores out the way...perhaps even a cheeky beer at the beer garden could be called for...or a nice pleasant stroll with ya other half,or be brave and make it an adventure day

I tell you what on a sunny day you can't beat a little Reggae to really feel the vibes,you kind of get that Caribbean feeling.

To sum up Summary conditions likely to return. For how long? At least 10 days I would say. Autumn on hold for now! 

Enjoy all of ya  

Edited August 24, 2022 by MATTWOLVES

[mushymanrob]

wetterzentrale seems slow uploading... only on t72...

[Cheshire Freeze]

Welcome back to the stage mr PV

[Cambrian]

12z ECM op day 3 and a low pressure forms out of Arctic Canada, passes through southern Greenland by day 5 and deepens to 990mb with some intent you might think.

 

By day 8, it’s drifted southeast past the south of Iceland and filled to 1015mb - says it all in terms of the ability of the North Atlantic at the moment to nurture a low pressure system. Then interestingly, it drops south by day 10, staying out in the Atlantic, moving almost straight south about 400 miles or so southwest of Ireland, where it begins to deepen again.

 

It brings most of the UK and Ireland into a southeasterly off the continent and is drawing up some good heights into France, which are heading north. Now wouldn’t that be a bizarre way to get an early September plume? Off a low pressure system that originated in the Arctic!

[Stuie]

@Cambrian Very plausible

 

Edit: Sorry should say more, due to the jet stream forecast.

Edited August 24, 2022 by Stuie W

[seb]

17 hours ago, seb said:

Extremely narrow band of rain tomorrow. Difficult to model.
 

Latest UKV leaves me and areas east of here almost dry as does Arpege. ICON has the band even narrower but largest amount right over me. ECM wants a soaking of a large area and is very much out of line with what’s showing on other models. GFS  has lower amounts than most but over a wider area but matches UKV regarding the Eastern extent, leaving East Kent as good as dry.

Looks like UKV and GFS were on the money. Unless there’s quite some shift east, we will once again remain dry or get trace amounts here and East of us. Nice to see some distant lightning to my West and SW though.

[clark3r]

Gfs this morning has a few days with high 20s in early September2022, summer is far from done yet

[seb]

No meaningful rain on GFS until well into FI for large parts of the country (8 Sep) and even that leaves large parts of the S&E drought areas with just trace amounts.

Edited August 25, 2022 by seb

[KTtom]

1 hour ago, seb said:

No meaningful rain on GFS until well into FI for large parts of the country (8 Sep) and even that leaves large parts of the S&E drought areas with just trace amounts.

Well there's plenty in the south east at +0 !!

 

 

[seb]

6 minutes ago, KTtom said:

Well there's plenty in the south east at +0 !!

 

 

Well, we have had a grand total of 0mm as of 8:15am and the same applies for everywhere East of here, including large parts of Essex, Suffolk and Norfolk.

[billy]

A good inch recorded this morning on my state of the art weather station here near kings lynn, and still pouring down

[johnholmes]

Conflicting comments on rainfall. For the far east of E Anglia, Essex and Kent the Net Wx radar suggests you will get rain today, how much is another matter.

Turning cooler as that rain band clears east but still respectable temperatures for late August for many away from the far NW?

[SnowBear]

9 minutes ago, johnholmes said:

Conflicting comments on rainfall. For the far east of E Anglia, Essex and Kent the Net Wx radar suggests you will get rain today, how much is another matter.

Turning cooler as that rain band clears east but still respectable temperatures for late August for many away from the far NW?

Rain seems to just fade out by the time it gets here in Colchester, barely enough to damp the dust down so far. I was rather hopeful looking at the radar earlier and from what was modelled/forecast that we may get a decent amount, but... Not so sure now. 

Edited August 25, 2022 by SnowBear

[seb]

33 minutes ago, johnholmes said:

Conflicting comments on rainfall. For the far east of E Anglia, Essex and Kent the Net Wx radar suggests you will get rain today, how much is another matter.

Turning cooler as that rain band clears east but still respectable temperatures for late August for many away from the far NW?

The sharp border  to no precipation has basically not moved East in three hours. We have had literally one minute of drizzle that didn’t even wet any surfaces.

The latest UKV has an area of measurable rain just about touching my location around 1PM before everything moves into the North Sea.

However, based on live radar and just how much narrower the band of rain is over the channel and into Northern France compared to earlier, I’d bet on it skirting the Eastern parts you mention (and which have stayed dry so far) to the West before exiting. It would need quite some development on the Eastern side of the band to avoid that and so far I haven’t seen anything that would set that off.

 

Edited August 25, 2022 by seb

[Earthshine]

Mid-twenties throughout to the first third of September.  Not bad at all!

[summer blizzard]

GFS and Euro both try to drop a trough over/west around day 7/8.

 

GFS does try back the trough west for a few days though.

[Mark Smithy]

Goodness me:

 

If this was winter this place would be in meltdown: 

And why do charts like that never come off in winter itself?! 

[sunnijim]

6 minutes ago, Mark Smithy said:

Goodness me:

 

If this was winter this place would be in meltdown: 

And why do charts like that never come off in winter itself?! 

Highly unlikely to come off as shown now either!

Can't remember the last time a chart like that verified as shown.

[mushymanrob]

13 minutes ago, sunnijim said:

Highly unlikely to come off as shown now either!

Can't remember the last time a chart like that verified as shown.

probably march 2018, and the beast from the east.. ?

 

[I remember Atlantic 252]

3 hours ago, Mark Smithy said:

Goodness me:

 

If this was winter this place would be in meltdown: 

And why do charts like that never come off in winter itself?! 

too aggressive PV over greenie area, will not happen until April when PV starts to go