Model Output Discussion - Autumn arrives

[Frosty.]

The Gfs 12z operational, albeit changeable, doesn’t seem as unsettled.. or cold as some previous runs?..and ends rather anticyclonic!.. to me, I’m not fussed about early toothless cold, I want cold at the business end of the process, when it actually delivers the goods.. in winter!

 

 

[Beanz]

1 hour ago, Don said:

Can I just clarify that my earlier post was merely indicating that it's interesting to watch for signs in autumn that the atmosphere is behaving differently to the norm which 'might' (and only that!) be an indication that a different winter could be on the cards?!  I know this is something Gavin Partridge keeps an eye on at this time of year.  I'm not saying anything out of the ordinary is happening at the moment either with the outlook very typical October.  Anyway, I hope this has cleared things up! 

There’s no science in Gavin P’s commentary, it’s purely just that. 

I agree though, that we’re experiencing a different autumn to that of previous years, and the models are looking interesting for early cold.  Certainly worth being aware of.  

[damianslaw]

29 minutes ago, jon snow said:

The Gfs 12z operational, albeit changeable, doesn’t seem as unsettled.. or cold as some previous runs?..and ends rather anticyclonic!.. to me, I’m not fussed about early toothless cold, I want cold at the business end of the process, when it actually delivers the goods.. in winter!

 

 

If it ran further it would see the high kicked NW and a cold northerly. The trigger that runner low to the north of Iceland, trajectory SW into the main trough. All conjecture.

Edited October 7, 2022 by damianslaw

[Frosty.]

For those who don’t like unsettled..or cold.. …P23 GEFS 12z ain’t bad longer term innit!! … joking aside, it could just as easily be an Indian summer in the second half of October as something unseasonably cold! …I say, save the cold Synoptics until it can actually deliver something meaningful!…anyone agree?  

[Methuselah]

1 minute ago, jon snow said:

For those who don’t like unsettled..or cold.. …P23 GEFS 12z ain’t bad longer term innit!! … joking aside, it could just as easily be an Indian summer in the second half of October as something unseasonably cold! …I say, save the cold Synoptics until it can actually deliver something meaningful!…anyone agree?  

But, Karl, most of the outlooks look like being cold and miserable -- chocolate teapot territory?

[Lincs Observation]

2 hours ago, Beanz said:

There’s no science in Gavin P’s commentary, it’s purely just that. 

I agree though, that we’re experiencing a different autumn to that of previous years, and the models are looking interesting for early cold.  Certainly worth being aware of.  

Thought I would add an unscientific comment, and say based on natures ability to even the field I would say after a pretty mild and dry winter, spring and summer you would if a betting man say the odds are good for a cold above average precipitation winter to come. Like I say totally unscientific though.

LO

[Beanz]

15 minutes ago, Lincs Observation said:

Thought I would add an unscientific comment, and say based on natures ability to even the field I would say after a pretty mild and dry winter, spring and summer you would if a betting man say the odds are good for a cold above average precipitation winter to come. Like I say totally unscientific though.

LO

True that, one of the fascinating, or frustrating, things about the weather is we still haven’t really nailed the science when it comes to forecasting longer range.  That’s what keeps us all hooked eh?

[Newberryone]

Like the Gfs and Gefs I certainly don’t think one can rule out the distinct possibility of things settling down somewhat again beyond mid-Oct as the 12z Ecm seems to be following a similar route by day 10. An area of high pressure over Central/Southern Europe to possibly link up with that high in mid-Atlantic would be quite a plausible outcome. A notable feature this year in particular after all has been for any unsettled looking Fl charts to be completely watered down closer to the time and this in all probability will produce a similar outcome. 

Edited October 7, 2022 by Newberryone

[Don]

2 hours ago, jon snow said:

For those who don’t like unsettled..or cold.. …P23 GEFS 12z ain’t bad longer term innit!! … joking aside, it could just as easily be an Indian summer in the second half of October as something unseasonably cold! …I say, save the cold Synoptics until it can actually deliver something meaningful!…anyone agree?  

Yes as long as they actually turn up and deliver at the right time!!  The latest Met Office monthly forecast does not hint at anything out of the ordinary for October.

Edited October 7, 2022 by Don

[Rain All Night]

2 hours ago, Newberryone said:

Like the Gfs and Gefs I certainly don’t think one can rule out the distinct possibility of things settling down somewhat again beyond mid-Oct as the 12z Ecm seems to be following a similar route by day 10. An area of high pressure over Central/Southern Europe to possibly link up with that high in mid-Atlantic would be quite a plausible outcome. A notable feature this year in particular after all has been for any unsettled looking Fl charts to be completely watered down closer to the time and this in all probability will produce a similar outcome. 

Our trough could peel away to the southwest after a few days, maybe kick some milder air back up behind it to mitigate its trail of chill..?

Beyond that, the Met Office day 16-30 outlook has kept the following wording for four days now...

Beginning in that timeframe and continuing beyond, a plurality of ECM ensemble members apparently demonstrate (Scandinavian) blocking...

Edited October 7, 2022 by RainAllNight
Added GFS 18z screen grabs

[Cambrian]

Ah, the pub run - it’s been a while. Mind you, it’s been a while since the pub run has done a totemic pub run. The 18z GFS op (clearly off on one) does away with all that nonsense cyclonic stuff of day 7 quickly enough and by day 11 or 12…

  

…well, I for one am not heading south for winter , I’m digging out my trunks, in which I look great, and heading to the beach. Yep, that’s me. 

 

Don’t show me the ensemble mean for day 11 with that niggly northerly quadrant thing going on.

 

Who needs reality when you think you look this good?

[mushymanrob]

Interestingly, these charts dont support the current ops after next weekend. Theres no high pressure around for the uk here (only to our west) ... Usually when theres conflict between the ops and these anoms, these are closer to the outcome - but not always.

[Mike Poole]

1 hour ago, mushymanrob said:

Interestingly, these charts dont support the current ops after next weekend. Theres no high pressure around for the uk here (only to our west) ... Usually when theres conflict between the ops and these anoms, these are closer to the outcome - but not always.

Been plenty of op runs that have a significant atlantic ridge beyond day 9 or so recently, it looks much more likely to me than a UK high.  Yesterday’s GEM 12z at T216 the most extreme, going right up to Greenland:

Interesting to see this sort of amplification continuing to show in the models as we move into mid autumn.  

Edited October 8, 2022 by Mike Poole

[Don]

9 hours ago, Cambrian said:

Ah, the pub run - it’s been a while. Mind you, it’s been a while since the pub run has done a totemic pub run. The 18z GFS op (clearly off on one) does away with all that nonsense cyclonic stuff of day 7 quickly enough and by day 11 or 12…

  

 

October heat spike alert!!  

[Methuselah]

1 hour ago, Don said:

October heat spike alert!!  

But... Two earlier years that saw heat-spikes in October were 1978 and 1995 ... (My memory of 1969 is getting rather hazy!). And the rest, as they say, is history!

[chapmanslade]

1 hour ago, Don said:

October heat spike alert!!  

Both GFS and ECM toying with a significant heat surge after next weekend. 

[Frigid]

Typical, the cool spell watered down and now a heat surge showing up on the models. Still in the unreliable but knowing how warm spells are played, they almost always come to fruition. 

[Don]

1 hour ago, Ed Stone said:

But... Two earlier years that saw heat-spikes in October were 1978 and 1995 ... (My memory of 1969 is getting rather hazy!). And the rest, as they say, is history!

Yes indeed! 

19 minutes ago, Frigid said:

Typical, the cool spell watered down and now a heat surge showing up on the models. Still in the unreliable but knowing how warm spells are played, they almost always come to fruition. 

That's 2022 for you!  However, the Met Office have not really been on board for anything out of the ordinary to occur this month either.

[Kirkcaldy Weather]

2 hours ago, Frigid said:

Typical, the cool spell watered down and now a heat surge showing up on the models. Still in the unreliable but knowing how warm spells are played, they almost always come to fruition. 

Nothing has been watered down / has changed from the charts I've been looking at, the models are still working out exactly how the upcoming high development around Greenland will position itself then the low around the UK in association with the MJO phases I've been talking about in recent posts. The upper air associated with that pattern is also below average  

[Cambrian]

The day 10 charts from the 12z operational runs all show the uncommon setup of a polar / Scandinavian trough projecting southwestwards to the Cape Finisterre / Azores region. They are all in the process of slowly killing off the trough, but in different ways, with widely varying outcomes for us as a consequence. 

The GEM has heights build in from the continent and pressure rise up to around 1020mb over the UK and Ireland. It looks like these could punch through and meet up with the Atlantic ridge to the south of Iceland, settling it down and potentially quite warm.

 

The GFS has a low pressure system over the southern North Sea as a prelude to the Atlantic high toppling in from the northwest, slowly quietening down by day 12, but with below average temperatures in winds from the northeast.

  

The ECM builds heights up through Central Europe to Scandinavia attempting to link up with the Northern Atlantic heights, cutting off the low just to the northwest of the UK keeping it cyclonic, changeable with near average temperatures.

 

Hmmm, so after mid-month, a change to dry, warm, showery, cool, more unsettled conditions. 
Enjoy the rest of the weekend and have a great start to the new week. 

Edited October 8, 2022 by Cambrian

[tinybill]

On 07/10/2022 at 18:21, jon snow said:

The Gfs 12z operational, albeit changeable, doesn’t seem as unsettled.. or cold as some previous runs?..and ends rather anticyclonic!.. to me, I’m not fussed about early toothless cold, I want cold at the business end of the process, when it actually delivers the goods.. in winter!

 

 

mind you they are saying things  could get interesting  in  early  november   if they are  right  we  could  be in for a very cold spell  then

[RJBingham]

9 hours ago, tinybill said:

mind you they are saying things  could get interesting  in  early  november   if they are  right  we  could  be in for a very cold spell  then

Who are "they"?

[mushymanrob]

Still looking a lot cooler and stormier then what the ops are suggesting... mean upper flow sourced from Greenland isnt mild!

 

[damianslaw]

25 minutes ago, mushymanrob said:

Still looking a lot cooler and stormier then what the ops are suggesting... mean upper flow sourced from Greenland isnt mild!

 

Quite a pronounced ridge of heights to the west, looks cold and cyclonic for the UK, with the wrap around heights to the north, interesting set up against the usual zonal grain we see in October.

[minus10]

35 minutes ago, mushymanrob said:

Still looking a lot cooler and stormier then what the ops are suggesting... mean upper flow sourced from Greenland isnt mild!

 

Yes the closest to the anoms is the ukmo for day7...

GFS and ECM 0z have the low bit further north and go on to develop a kind of west based nao with higher pressure to the se and thus milder temps..

 

 

Interesting to see how this plays out...