Model Output Discussion - Autumn arrives

[northwestsnow]

TBH I'm expecting a cyclonic pattern to persist for a while.

Seeing longer term suggestions of a big Urals High on other platforms..

[Eagle Eye]

Zooming in on the next week or so and we have multiple low's coming close or as a direct hit. Meaning that we have a build up of rain especially across the West of the Isles.

The temperature advection shows just how much the UK is being affected a lot more than the near continent at the moment.

There is nothing special about this period at the moment though, a very typical October, maybe slightly below average temperature wise though because of the air being sourced slightly further North than normal.

The amplification cycle is about to re enter the stronger part of the cycle so there is likely to be a lot more in terms of Rossby Wave action like I've said in previous posts when looking into the future.

[Don]

2 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

TBH I'm expecting a cyclonic pattern to persist for a while.

Seeing longer term suggestions of a big Urals High on other platforms..

What could that mean for the UK moving forward I wonder?

[northwestsnow]

Just now, Don said:

What could that mean for the UK moving forward I wonder?

I'm thinking Statospherically ,in a good way..

[damianslaw]

Models continue with the theme they've shown for quite sometime now, a change from a mild flow between south and west to a coldee flow from north to west as we see amplification of the jet, end result, azores high kicked west, and a colder northerly sourced airflow next weekend, which is just within the reliable. All looking chilly and cyclonic, blow away cobwebs weather.

Edited October 9, 2022 by damianslaw

[Frosty.]

You want it darker?.. .. I mean colder! .. try P3! GEFS 6z… .. we kill the flame. !!!  

[Eagle Eye]

50 minutes ago, jon snow said:

You want it darker?.. .. I mean colder! .. try P3! GEFS 6z… .. we kill the flame. !!!  

Yes quite the cool down, you've got it all there, the Greenland high, the low amplification mostly elsewhere. It's very unlikely of course but seeing as it's being output by 1 of the ensemble members it's possible.

Its pretty much fantasy land but who doesn't like to dream and who knows something similar might even happen mid way through January .

Just hours before and we've got quite the windy backend of a troughing just to add onto the craziness of P3.

[Methuselah]

1 hour ago, jon snow said:

You want it darker?.. .. I mean colder! .. try P3! GEFS 6z… .. we kill the flame. !!!  

I'll give you three guesses as to where you can stick that perturbation, Karl!

[minus10]

This just caught my eye...

The biggest op rain spike i think i have ever seen on gfs (6z) for this area. 

Understanadable when looking at the pressure chart..

Gfs signalling a pretty unsettled picture for next weekend and certainly one to help reduce soil moisture defecits here in the south..

But before i get too excited ...well...of course...its an outlier..

...and well ecm 0z wasnt interested..

Just another gfs tease for those of us here in the south desperate still for some meaningfull rain....

GFS...the...

[Frosty.]

29 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

I'll give you three guesses as to where you can stick that perturbation, Karl!

No worries Ed..I mean Pete.. probably an outlier.. the mean looks flatter.. ?! .. to dare is to do!!!… God rest Gian Piero Ventrone!  Tottenham Hotspur!  

 

 

Edited October 9, 2022 by jon snow

[Frosty.]

Would it be fair to say the Gfs 12z operational is a generally unsettled run with a dash of explosive cyclogenesis thrown in for good measure… hmmm? …but hey, we are well into autumn now so what do we expect? .. …roll on winter! ️  

 

[Frosty.]

I can see the coldies are itching for some cold charts?… …actually, I can’t see anything! , I’m like blind pew!..I have no idea what anyone wants on here!..so I will shut up now.. .. I hope I see a rainbow though..  

 

 

 

 

[Methuselah]

8 minutes ago, jon snow said:

I can see the coldies are itching for some cold charts?… …actually, I can’t see anything! , I’m like blind pew!..I have no idea what anyone wants on here!..so I will shut up now.. .. I hope I see a rainbow though..  

 

 

 

 

Let's just hope that, should that thing ever materialise, its demise is rather zippy!

[Frosty.]

Essentially the ECMWF 12z operational is rather cool / average and unsettled apart from some early transient ridging further south and with a moment of warmer air from the south!… it’s all rather typical for further into October is it not? … anyhoo, it inches us closer to winter which is all I care about!!!!.. call me crazy.. yes….. I’m a deluded coldie!

 

[snefnug]

50 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

Let's just hope that, should that thing ever materialise, its demise is rather zippy!

Otherwise it will be a bit of a bungle.

 

[Rain All Night]

On 08/10/2022 at 09:18, mushymanrob said:

Interestingly, these charts dont support the current ops after next weekend. Theres no high pressure around for the uk here (only to our west) ... Usually when theres conflict between the ops and these anoms, these are closer to the outcome - but not always.

Looking a bit more aligned now...

[Frosty.]

14 minutes ago, snefnug said:

Otherwise it will be a bit of a bungle.

 

Hey, I like Bungle!!! …

Anyhoo, the Gem 12z ends with something of a north / south split..temperature wise! ..

that’s all from me folks…

[Kentspur]

14 hours ago, minus10 said:

This just caught my eye...

The biggest op rain spike i think i have ever seen on gfs (6z) for this area. 

Understanadable when looking at the pressure chart..

Gfs signalling a pretty unsettled picture for next weekend and certainly one to help reduce soil moisture defecits here in the south..

But before i get too excited ...well...of course...its an outlier..

...and well ecm 0z wasnt interested..

Just another gfs tease for those of us here in the south desperate still for some meaningfull rain....

GFS...the...

It can stay west based NAO for another month or 2 to allow us to top up the Southern&Eastern rainfall totals long as it shunts further east in time for winter!

[mushymanrob]

This looks pretty wet to me, all that cold air sweeping into the mid Atlantic, hitting the warmer subtropical air will create some deep shortwaves thats likely to deliver a lot of heavy rain - this shows up well on the GFS 00z.

 

[ANYWEATHER]

The Battle of cold v mild is now starting ,and the battle zone is across the UK!  Early days, but at least some inspiration for winter lovers at some early winter charts even though it's still October!

h850t850eu.webp

[Eagle Eye]

Over the next week or so there will be multiple times where we have lows and fronts moving through only to be replaced quickly by drier air in a very normal October cycle of air, there is a threat of colder air moving in still but I don't think that it'll be for long but may be some early season proper snow for parts of Scotland.

We've re-entered the strong amplification cycle of the MJO amplitude phasing and so the Rossby pattern should eventually reach us so November may start off as being pretty dry.

You can see the waves being forced up in this forecast GIF and I have to say that it's quite relaxing to watch.

[Rain All Night]

5 hours ago, Eagle Eye said:

Over the next week or so there will be multiple times where we have lows and fronts moving through only to be replaced quickly by drier air in a very normal October cycle of air, there is a threat of colder air moving in still but I don't think that it'll be for long but may be some early season proper snow for parts of Scotland.

We've re-entered the strong amplification cycle of the MJO amplitude phasing and so the Rossby pattern should eventually reach us so November may start off as being pretty dry.

You can see the waves being forced up in this forecast GIF and I have to say that it's quite relaxing to watch.

I have been curious about the motivation behind the Met Office's suggestion (which they have had online for the past week and have just strengthened slightly today) that we may see something more settled into November, I guess it must be based on observations like this one that are just a touch beyond me at present!!

[Eagle Eye]

1 hour ago, RainAllNight said:

I have been curious about the motivation behind the Met Office's suggestion (which they have had online for the past week and have just strengthened slightly today) that we may see something more settled into November, I guess it must be based on observations like this one that are just a touch beyond me at present!!

I'm glad that I seem somewhat correct then as I've only really come into my own in terms of the MJO since last year so I'm only really starting. For example, I'm not entirely sure of the outcomes of every single individual phasing.

I'm not the best at explaining the MJO but here's a few websites to help you.

Here's one with all the forecasts and a small explanation at the top.

MJO - Madden-Julian Oscillation Forecast

WWW.DACULAWEATHER.COM

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MJO Forecast images on DaculaWeather.com

Some very good explanation 

What is the MJO, and why do we care? | NOAA Climate.gov

WWW.CLIMATE.GOV

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Several times a year the MJO contributes to various extreme events in the United States, including Arctic air outbreaks during winter across the central and eastern...

And the good old Met Office.

What is the Madden-Julian Oscillation?

WWW.METOFFICE.GOV.UK

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The Madden-Julian Oscillation is characterised by an eastward spread of large regions of enhanced and suppressed tropical rainfall, mainly observed over the Indian and...

 

[Cambrian]

Although it’s still several weeks too early for properly cold weather, with the evenings drawing in, it is a time when we instinctively start looking for polar air masses making their way south to bring us some chillier weather. 

And for that, troughs Aleutian, Hudson, and one to the Norwegian Sea look instinctively right, giving us a brief polar feed at day 6 on the 12z ECM op, accompanied by generous ridges into western Canada and well up into Greenland. Such a nice chart. 

 

Though the northerly is only fleeting on this occasion, and the amplitude of the longwave trough setup slowly ebbs and flows, the Greenland ridge is a fixture - and either side of it, including for our part of the world, it’s a case of once you trough, you can’t stop - the same general orientation enduring from day 6 to day 10, bolstering the accumulated precipitation totals on this run.

  

The mean and anomaly charts for day 10 are supportive of our porcine friends’ grub tub hanging around nearby to our west, while increasing heights over Europe try to push up from the southeast, leaving us under a moist maritime influence - it looks like Pinky, Perky and Petunia are going to enjoy it whatever.

 

[Newberryone]

4 hours ago, RainAllNight said:

I have been curious about the motivation behind the Met Office's suggestion (which they have had online for the past week and have just strengthened slightly today) that we may see something more settled into November, I guess it must be based on observations like this one that are just a touch beyond me at present!!

12z Ecm ending on a note at day 10 that might just suggest we may not even have to wait till the start of Nov to see something more settled as suggested by the Met Office. Zonal it certainly isn’t, especially by day 10 with heights encroaching from Southern Europe as well as our mid Atlantic high. The low in our vicinity is just a shallow feature by then with a very inactive looking Atlantic over all.