Storms and Convective discussion - 1st August 2022 onwards

[Flash bang flash bang etc]

https://www.webcamtaxi.com/en/wales/pembrokeshire/saundersfoot-beach-harbour.html
 

ooooooo

[Supacell]

4 minutes ago, CoventryWeather said:

Hey. I'm new to Netweather. Hope everyone is enjoying their evening. 

Just a quick question about tonight. Do you think Coventry will have a risk of thunder tonight? 

I really want a nighttime storm as the last one was several years ago. 

Thank you. 

Welcome to Netweather. 

That's the million dollar question. It depends which models and forecasts are correct, both for you in Coventry and me in Derbyshire.

I'd therefore say there is certainly a chance, but it's by no means a likelihood for tonight. Fingers crossed.

[CoventryWeather]

Just now, Supacell said:

Welcome to Netweather. 

That's the million dollar question. It depends which models and forecasts are correct, both for you in Coventry and me in Derbyshire.

I'd therefore say there is certainly a chance, but it's by no means a likelihood for tonight. Fingers crossed.

Thank you Supacell. I'm certainly hoping for some. What models would you recommend? Met office isn't really interested here. 

[viking_smb]

can anyone confirm strikes near cardiff pls as blitzortung is saying.

[Marcus_surfer]

Just now, Marcus_surfer said:

false sferic. loads over swansea too. but the real main bulk of the activity is much further west into pembrokeshire

 

Edited October 19, 2022 by Marcus_surfer

[viking_smb]

2 minutes ago, Marcus_surfer said:

 

thanks marcus, hope you are good bud

[biddie]

9 minutes ago, viking_smb said:

can anyone confirm strikes near cardiff pls as blitzortung is saying.

It's clearly on the radar 

[TJS1998Tom]

Proper going for it now

 

Very curious about what will happen with the moderate section for the East towards Lincolnshire

[viking_smb]

5 minutes ago, biddie said:

It's clearly on the radar 

false strike, confirmed by marcus surfer.

Edited October 19, 2022 by viking_smb

[Supacell]

11 minutes ago, CoventryWeather said:

Thank you Supacell. I'm certainly hoping for some. What models would you recommend? Met office isn't really interested here. 

I find the UKV to be one of the better ones. AROME is okay but can overdo things a little with showers and storms. 

[Eagle Eye]

Slowly building.

 

Edited October 19, 2022 by Eagle Eye

[viking_smb]

Just now, Supacell said:

I find the UKV to be one of the better ones. AROME is okay but can overdo things a little with showers and storms. 

I think UKV has been spot on tonight.

[Lightfox]

1 hour ago, viking_smb said:

I think that is it for tonight. its moving northwest direction now.

I’m glad i got at least something

[CoventryWeather]

12 minutes ago, Supacell said:

I find the UKV to be one of the better ones. AROME is okay but can overdo things a little with showers and storms. 

Thank you. 

[Rufus Butterfield]

20 minutes ago, viking_smb said:

I think UKV has been spot on tonight.

for now at least. 

It's showing an uptick in activity in the early hours across the north midlands, so I might set an alarm early and see what's going on, on the radar. 

[Mapantz]

You could be mistaken to think that this is a snapshot of a day in the middle of summer..

[Sky Full]

First chance I’ve had to post this but we experienced the most extraordinary light show here earlier this evening - around 8:30pm.   As the band of intense showers passed over, the cloud to cloud sheet lightning directly overhead became almost constant for a while, accompanied by continuous rolling thunder and torrential rain for about ten minutes.  I can’t remember ever seeing this kind of electrical activity at this time of year except once in southern Spain while on holiday years ago.  The radar showed the storms moving quickly north into the Irish Sea and I would have loved to be on the north coast around Fishguard where I imagine the sight would have been spectacular over the sea.  I am struggling to understand what is causing these conditions to occur (second night in a row) at this time of year when we went through the heat of the summer and never saw one storm here…..but I am enjoying it!

[Had Worse]

 

[andy989]

This is going to be intense. I’m at a vantage point about 1000ft looking over the Irish see. It’s constant flashes for the full 180 degree vision. Very impressive 

[MP-R]

12 minutes ago, Sky Full said:

First chance I’ve had to post this but we experienced the most extraordinary light show here earlier this evening - around 8:30pm.   As the band of intense showers passed over, the cloud to cloud sheet lightning directly overhead became almost constant for a while, accompanied by continuous rolling thunder and torrential rain for about ten minutes.  I can’t remember ever seeing this kind of electrical activity at this time of year except once in southern Spain while on holiday years ago.  The radar showed the storms moving quickly north into the Irish Sea and I would have loved to be on the north coast around Fishguard where I imagine the sight would have been spectacular over the sea.  I am struggling to understand what is causing these conditions to occur (second night in a row) at this time of year when we went through the heat of the summer and never saw one storm here…..but I am enjoying it!

Largely because despite the heat and many factors favourable for storms, there was very rarely a trigger. Had these synoptics occurred in the summer then boom but most of the summer was anticyclonic. It wasn’t until early September that we struck gold with such a stationary trough but by then it was ‘warm’ rather than ‘hot’. 
 

Needless to say 05th September was great here, and there was further thunder that week.

[The Tall Weatherman]

As we know so far the UKV has performed perfectly. Tomorrow morning around 8z a MCS looking thing forms around London and heads north towards       The Eastern parts. Interesting if you ask me.

[Flash bang flash bang etc]

I’m expecting storms at about 2am around south London

[Supacell]

9 minutes ago, The Tall Weatherman said:

As we know so far the UKV has performed perfectly. Tomorrow morning around 8z a MCS looking thing forms around London and heads north towards       The Eastern parts. Interesting if you ask me.

Quite similar to the MDT area highlighted in the forecast from Convective Weather earlier. He mentions uncertainty over timing and that it could occur after the end of that forecast period. This would fall in line with what UKV is now showing.

[Had Worse]

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[Scuba steve]

Looked out of attic window I can see distant lightning