Snow and Ice in the Northern Hemisphere: Winter 22/23

[Midlands Ice Age]

6 Days since the last update, and  I thought it worthwhile giving an update  for the end of February / beginning  of March as we rapidly approach the expected maximum for the season.

Todays Masie extent touches 15.0M Km2 for the first time at 15,005K Km2, after increases of (+38K), (+104K), (-19K), (-115K), (+131K) and today (+29K).

This takes it to near the top of the Masie last 5 years report - 

 and with still a positive outlook for sea ice extent  (thanks to the SSW), I think it may well go to the top.

Jaxa is showing that its extent is around the 7th to the 10th lowest over the last 20 years, so it looks like ending up as an average ( for the last 10 years) ice growth season                                 

with Area also in similar shape, though like Masie,  seems to be ending the season with a spurt according to NSIDC figures -

   

All the series figures show the data as slightly above the 10years average season.

The SSW does seem to be increasing ice coverage in the Arctic Basin, in  particularly the Barents which  is seeing large increases though a bit late in the season to make too much difference, as the northerlies finally take hold.

Officially we have about 4 days of sea ice extent increases left now, but I suspect that we may extend it slightly this season as the northerlies are forecast to continue  (with further SSW warmings  still showing) and yet to affect the Arctic at lower levels. 

A look at the volume and thickness charts show that the ice continues to thicken in the Russian sector - 

 

and this shows that we are highly likely to keep some of this ice until next season, whilst other ice, particularly  in Barents, melts out more quickly.  

PIOMAS, a different ice thickness and volume measuring system, again is still showing a fairly average season, though again Barents ice is lower than the last few seasons.

   and   Thanks to the ASIF. 

 

So just about closing off the Arctic refreeze season, and a final mention of the snow coverage which could well go above average with any European snow cover in March. A further closing report will be provided next week.

 MIA

 

Edited March 6, 2023 by Midlands Ice Age

[BleakMidwinter]

MIA, thankyou so much for doing these - I used to follow in the past when it was just charts posted and an occasional comment, but I am (slowly!) starting to understand more because of how clearly you explain it all. 
Just wanted to say - your hard work is appreciated!!

[nobble]

Before this thread goes away for 6 months , a question for the more knowledgable folk

 

if next winter is El Niño , is this better or worse for ice refreeze ??

[Midlands Ice Age]

Ice growth season is now officially called as over, after a week of largish losses. (see below)

Maximum on Masie recorded as 15.005K Km2 as shown last week.  Very much in the middle of the last 10 years.

Volume will continue to increase until the middle of April as the ice freezes at the bottom and surface mobility squashes it  together.

   

Extent fall over the last few days was concentrated in the Baffin Ocean and particularly the Labrador Straight as the SSW pushed warmer air into the Arctic thru the Straight. The drop was around 400K Km2 over 4 or 5 days. Since then Baffin has regained some of those losses.

However the SOO has been hit by a cyclone coming up out of Japan, and this has resulted in a bit of renewed loss in the area , and this means that overall the recent refreeze in Baffin has been somewhat off-set by the new losses in the SOO. -  So not enough to challenge the previous high extent. 

The quickish fall away in the 2 outer areas has been accompanied by an increase in Barents. The final push of the ice pack southwards has been expected for some time, and it has finally happened (as also has the SSW induced cold plume over the UK ). and pushed the ice southwards to Svalbard,  finally reaching Bear Isle. (always a good sign).

So at the end of the season, and looking forwards,  I expect there to be a fairly quick loss initially in the outer seas, but there is no clear picture for ice in the inner basin as yet.

With a further 6 weeks of growth of the inner basin (volume and thickness) left to go, it will require a further increase in order to sustain a good central ice pack this season.

So as usual,  no clear picture for the upcoming season melt.

Thanks for accompanying me,  I have enjoyed reporting for you this freeze season, and all being well, I hope we can all meet up again next year...

MIA

And for Nobbie, my initial  thoughts on the possible upcoming forecast El Nino, for the next season...

I would expect that Russia will not be as cold, but that North America will have more and earlier ice, due to the cold being more trapped in the western Arctic.  

  

Edited March 16, 2023 by Midlands Ice Age

[nobble]

MIA 

thanks for all the info and data

snd thanks for your thoughts

[Midlands Ice Age]

and...       one more post for those interested in seeing the freezing season out to a close...

Also,   I promised a more detailed review of the ice thickness back in January.

A good way of watching (and hence guessing what is going to happen in the melt season) is to watch the DMI ice thickness and volume graph.

Historically we have lost about 2M of ice across the NH Arctic basin during the summer melt.

This means that, as we know, all the ice that has formed in the outer areas will melt.

 

Also see the DMI charts for this time last year and also 30 days later (mid April) -

                       

Viewing and comparing both charts you can see the extra amount of 'pale blue' ice that formed in the month, (whilst sea ice total extent dropped). Remember that it needs to be at least this colour to survive the refreeze (the 2M level),within the basin, 

Now look at this year -

 

Comparing this chart with the one a year ago, highlights 2 or 3 interesting slight differences.

1) how the ice in the main pole region is somewhat  thicker this year (less dark blue) surrounding the pole, and  this  thicker ice extends further towards Svalbard/Norway).     Also the thicker ice in the Laptev/ ESS region is probably the left over ice from Beaufort from last year.

2) There is less ice this year towards the Beaufort Sea / Alaska Chukchi area -    thicker ice has moved away from last year, (that is away from the Beaufort Sea and Alaska coastline), where it will always melt out, 

3) The amount of ice exiting the Fram Straight (death for it), is similar to last year (though slightly thicker).

4)  Also that last year we saw a considerable widening of the Arctic main pack (towards Svalbard) going on well into April. (will it happen this year?)

 

Remember that the ice will still remain mainly around the pole in September , and that ice shown elsewhere will probably melt out, even within the Basin. 

 

Lastly, I include a link for the DMI chart -

https://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/icethickness/images/FullSize_CICE_combine_thick_SM_EN_20230317.png

 

So there are some (hopefully positive)  things to watch out for over the next 5 - 6 weeks.

But as  always, it will be mainly determined by the weather over the period from May to September. 

 

 

Fluctuating temperatures have been slightly above normal this spring, but the latest trend is downwards. 

              

Very similar to last year, when a very cold spring emerged in the Arctic.. 

MIA

Edited March 18, 2023 by Midlands Ice Age

[damianslaw]

Just wonder if the same thread for winter 23-24 will appear soon. Last year it was early on 22 Aug.

[Seasonal Trim]

Won't start the new thread myself. But, a few spots of snow have appeared in the Sakha region of Russia.

 

[cheeky_monkey]

30 minutes ago, damianslaw said:

Just wonder if the same thread for winter 23-24 will appear soon. Last year it was early on 22 Aug.

i always thought it traditionally started on Sept 1st ??

[lottiekent]

49 minutes ago, damianslaw said:

Just wonder if the same thread for winter 23-24 will appear soon. Last year it was early on 22 Aug.

I was looking at this yesterday!

@Turnedoutniceagain was kind enough to start last year’s thread and @Midlands Ice Age always provides lots of info - didn’t want to get a thread started in case one of you were prepping something

[damianslaw]

10 hours ago, cheeky_monkey said:

i always thought it traditionally started on Sept 1st ??

I think last year was notably early, but could be wrong.

[alexisj9]

6 minutes ago, damianslaw said:

I think last year was notably early, but could be wrong.

Yes it was, as actual sea ice started getting growing very early. I will assume with how things are this year, things will start noticeably late, although the thread might start September 1st anyway.

Edited August 26, 2023 by alexisj9

[Dorsetbred]

12 hours ago, damianslaw said:

Just wonder if the same thread for winter 23-24 will appear soon. Last year it was early on 22 Aug.

The suggestion from MIA is that it will start once the lowerlevel (i.e. not mountain range) pixels appear and it would be a new thread for this year.

As per here: 

 

Edited August 26, 2023 by Dorsetbred