Winter 2022-23 early thoughts - general chat

[Methuselah]

6 minutes ago, BLAST FROM THE PAST said:

Gave my example in Charlwood, Surrey….you been there?  Do you know where it is?

 

BFTP

I think it might be in Surrey... But anyroad it says sod all about 40.3C being recorded in Lincolnshire? Methinks you are clutching at straws. Do you know where Abriachan is?

Anywho, I think this not the best thread for arguing about the veracity, or otherwise, of last summer's temps?

Edited October 28, 2022 by Ed Stone

[sebastiaan1973]

https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1585830349820481537

An intresting read by Erik Webb. He writes about the teleconnections bringing a negative NAO in 3-4 weeks time. 

Edited October 28, 2022 by sebastiaan1973

[johncam]

Temps definitely on the up both winter and summer , never had a snowless winter till the 2000's , had 5 now , don't know gow bad it is in the south but would imagine worse than up here . The seasons are all blending into one, warm  spring now staring end of Feb and summer dragging onto end of October now , bloody depressing 

[sebastiaan1973]

https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1585677372249935872?cxt=HHwWgMCo1ebKuoEsAAAA

And another. 

[cheeky_monkey]

9 hours ago, Frostbite80 said:

Interestingly the ne pacific has been cooling a fair bit in the last week and if that continues would it be enough to at least weaken any high pressure that might set up there moving into winter.

Also some cooling in the central belt of the atlantic....

it wont...La Nina winters are pretty much 100% guaranteed to have an almost semi permanent High pressure cell in the NE pacific somewhere

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

1 hour ago, Ed Stone said:

I think it might be in Surrey... But anyroad it says sod all about 40.3C being recorded in Lincolnshire? Methinks you are clutching at straws. Do you know where Abriachan is?

Anywho, I think this not the best thread for arguing about the veracity, or otherwise, of last summer's temps?

You can methinks all you want (I do it a lot ).  Pete, I’ve posted the CONUS temps, that to me is far more eye opening than either English County.

Charlwood is a village right by Gatwick airport. 
Agreed, not the thread

 

BFTP

Edited October 28, 2022 by BLAST FROM THE PAST

[bluearmy]

Someone will post the latest cfsv2 for Jan because it’s not something you’d want to miss seeing ! 

[damianslaw]

55 minutes ago, johncam said:

Temps definitely on the up both winter and summer , never had a snowless winter till the 2000's , had 5 now , don't know gow bad it is in the south but would imagine worse than up here . The seasons are all blending into one, warm  spring now staring end of Feb and summer dragging onto end of October now , bloody depressing 

2020-21 was seasonal though with a cold April-May. 

[johncam]

Just now, damianslaw said:

2020-21 was seasonal though with a cold April-May. 

Correct mate , was up in Aviemore in May and Cairngorm still had snow , but the exception now rather than the rule sad to say 

[Downburst]

41 minutes ago, BLAST FROM THE PAST said:

You can methinks all you want (I do it a lot ).  Pete, I’ve posted the CONUS temps, that to me is far more eye opening than either English County.

Charlwood is a village right by Gatwick airport. 
Agreed, not the thread

 

BFTP

I’ve been on here for many a year and I do admire your input and obviously very deep interest in the weather and climate. Last year as in every other year you suggest Armageddon at some point around autumn to occur at some point in the coming winter. There was talk last year of major volcano and I recall you actually asked the forum was a pacific volcano, that had occurred, was the one your signature was predicting, which was very odd as that volcano had little impact on the weather given it’s position and conditions at the time and of course it’s output, but to ask the question tells me you’re more mystic than amateur scientist. Anyway still waiting for your promised sunspot cycle induced ice age etc as suggested by you so often and alluded to in your signature. One very obvious question is this, if you don’t believe in the max temps and warming earth, why do you believe in all the lowest temps you keep referring to all over the world?

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

23 minutes ago, Downburst said:

I’ve been on here for many a year and I do admire your input and obviously very deep interest in the weather and climate. Last year as in every other year you suggest Armageddon at some point around autumn to occur at some point in the coming winter. There was talk last year of major volcano and I recall you actually asked the forum was a pacific volcano, that had occurred, was the one your signature was predicting, which was very odd as that volcano had little impact on the weather given it’s position and conditions at the time and of course it’s output, but to ask the question tells me you’re more mystic than amateur scientist. Anyway still waiting for your promised sunspot cycle induced ice age etc as suggested by you so often and alluded to in your signature. One very obvious question is this, if you don’t believe in the max temps and warming earth, why do you believe in all the lowest temps you keep referring to all over the world?

That Volcanic eruption was somewhat incredibly unique (I called it but admit I don’t know if it’s  ‘the one’)….and the incredible cold in the Southern Hemisphere….linked or.not.  I don’t know…jury’s out…but some coincidence.  Let’s see what happens in this NH winter….forget UK…we mean very little in GW theory….

There are record warm temps, but they are getting outstripped by record cold….just not the UK

 

BFTP

Edited October 28, 2022 by BLAST FROM THE PAST

[Mapantz]

Does anyone know if there's a limit on how many facepalm emoji's you can add in a single post?

x graham's number.

[blizzard81]

2 hours ago, bluearmy said:

Someone will post the latest cfsv2 for Jan because it’s not something you’d want to miss seeing ! 

Why not just post it?

[Bullseye]

 

 

 

[Don]

3 hours ago, johncam said:

Temps definitely on the up both winter and summer , never had a snowless winter till the 2000's , had 5 now , don't know gow bad it is in the south but would imagine worse than up here . The seasons are all blending into one, warm  spring now staring end of Feb and summer dragging onto end of October now , bloody depressing 

I think that's a fair assumption, although it would hardly take much to better the south!

[johncam]

1 minute ago, Don said:

I think that's a fair assumption, although it would hardly take much to better the south!

When I was growing up in sixties we had frosts most September's,  lucky to get many most winters now , sad 

[northwestsnow]

EW is someone I follow on twitter.. 

His record is very very good..

[Don]

4 minutes ago, johncam said:

When I was growing up in sixties we had frosts most September's,  lucky to get many most winters now , sad 

Well there you are.

I remember growing up in the 80's and there would often be a thick frost around Bonfire night and many more through November, sometimes lasting all day.  Not had anything like that during the whole winter for a number of years!

[johncam]

Showing our age Don 

[Don]

1 minute ago, johncam said:

Showing our age Don 

Yes sadly!

[damianslaw]

37 minutes ago, Don said:

Well there you are.

I remember growing up in the 80's and there would often be a thick frost around Bonfire night and many more through November, sometimes lasting all day.  Not had anything like that during the whole winter for a number of years!

Yes there were some cold Bonfire Nights in the 80s, 1985 springs to mind, but I suspect many a mild one as well.

Childhood memories are obscured by memorable events and times.. apart from 1981 all our 80s christmas days were snowless for example, indeed often very mild!

[Don]

Just now, damianslaw said:

Yes there were some cold Bonfire Nights in the 80s, 1985 springs to mind, but I suspect many a mild one as well.

Childhood memories are obscured by memorable events and times.. apart from 1981 all our 80s christmas days were snowless for example, indeed often very mild!

Indeed, December's of the cold mid-80's winters were generally mild with the fun and games kicking off in the New Year!!

[damianslaw]

10 minutes ago, Don said:

Indeed, December's of the cold mid-80's winters were generally mild with the fun and games kicking off in the New Year!!

Always think winter takes until christmas to show its true hand.. i.e. the worst cold most likely thereafter, and the base state sets in, either cold or mild.

[Beanz]

 

9 minutes ago, damianslaw said:

Yes there were some cold Bonfire Nights in the 80s, 1985 springs to mind, but I suspect many a mild one as well.

Childhood memories are obscured by memorable events and times.. apart from 1981 all our 80s christmas days were snowless for example, indeed often very mild!

This really sums it all up for me, bonfire night was generally always a time to be wrapping up warm (mittens on elastic hanging out of my coat sleeves) as it would invariably be cold when I was child (in the 80s).  

Snow has always been hit and miss down in the south, but the noticeable change in our winters is not snow fall, it’s the less cold conditions and lack of frosts.  I would say, that’s been a fairly recently noticeable thing too, probably only in the last years.  

Bonfire night is still a milestone for me when it comes to the winter.  Watching the weather forecast tonight, I found myself feeling pleased that temps were forecast to be dropping to lower double digits next weekend…how times have changed.  

[Don]

26 minutes ago, damianslaw said:

Always think winter takes until christmas to show its true hand.. i.e. the worst cold most likely thereafter, and the base state sets in, either cold or mild.

This is generally true unless it's a front loaded winter of course a la 1981 and 2010. 

Following the failed Christmas cold spell last year and record breaking mild New Year, I had a strong idea it was curtains for a cold winter and indeed it was!

Edited October 28, 2022 by Don