Model Output Discussion - Deeper into Autumn

[minus10]

3 hours ago, Zakos said:

Agreed very interesting ... the block is extensive and essentially in the same position right out to +384 hours on the 00z...

 

The block holding firm throughout... tentative signs perhaps of an easterly flow eventually over the U.K...

This is quite unusual for November... I haven't seen charts like these since Nov-2010... not to imply we will necessarily see a similar epic cold spell but the potential certainly is there.... 

 

 

 

Yes, the  mean anomolies  showing the higher than average geop 500's for both the gfs 6z and ecm 0z for 10 days time..

...looking remarkably similar...i think it is not so much a question of whether there will be a block but just how far north and east it will be to be able to influence our weather from the cold perspective, going by these charts . Strong negative tilt signal with the jet moving south east on the means ...

Good to see as @Cambrian alluded to earlier in his post..however will there be enough omph to enable the low pressures to continue there se journey or will they just stall in our vicinity resulting in very wet cool conditions...we will see..

[feb1991blizzard]

Never ever bought into any Atlantic ridge in Nov - id rather play the long game though and this chart must be a decent pre-cursor SSW trop pattern - first chance of severe cold has to be at least a month away - chance of a mid-late Dec cold spell perhaps (if we're lucky) - 09/10?

[Methuselah]

Going by what the models are currently saying, tomorrow's possible max of 20C (Met Office) will be the last one of 2022!

[phil nw.]

40 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

Going by what the models are currently saying, tomorrow's possible max of 20C (Met Office) will be the last one of 2022!

Certainly a big drop in temperatures coming Pete.

London ens show 10/11c fall in the 850s next week.Would suggest max's in single figures for most.

A big change as we get a colder flow from the west.

 

[Kirkcaldy Weather]

4 hours ago, Mark Smithy said:

Hi BFTP. Sorry but this is not what the ECM shows. The ECM has the high sliding away south. This is an Atlantic dominated snapshot at T240 of the 0z ECM:

 

In some ways the UKMO is even more progressive than the ECM. This is T144 and this is certainly not a serious block and it certainly is being shifted:

 

 

I'd argue that's not quite likely to be the dominating feature and as I explained yesterday (and in my examples below) the blocking ISN'T being shifted actually the opposite, if it were we would usually expect the lows moving across the UK pretty easily however as @BLAST FROM THE PAST referred the blocking is indeed doing just that

3 hours ago, Crackerjack said:

So BFTP & others saying solid block out East and not budging, then Mark & others saying this isn’t the case at all, and all in the last hour so assume everyone looking at the same data sets. I’m confused.com this morning as these are my go to trusted posters at odds with each other

I'm actually extremely shy so correcting inaccurate info from certain posters is a bit out of my comfort zone but I feel its necessary this thread be as accurate as it can for this exact reason and newer model watchers too, for me this thread should be posts analyzing the charts and explanations on whatever patterns are unfolding, also for learners heck I've been studying the charts nigh on daily and nightly for 13 years but there's always new stuff to learn

3 hours ago, Beanz said:

The block isn’t a block and it’s not in Scandinavia - no idea why folk are getting all excited if I’m honest.  
 

 

In it's beginning stage of development most likely it'll be pretty much centred directly over Scandinavia 

I mentioned yesterday it could actually extend a bit further east too, again we see this signal 

In these setups its better focusing on the shorter timeframes as little positional shifts can have bigger changes moving forward but even in the outer ranges of the modelling its a consistant blocking pattern  note the intensity of the mega Alaskan ridge I spoke of too

 here's the map of Scandinavia you can match that up to those charts and reconsider your absurd Post

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

5 hours ago, Mark Smithy said:

Hi BFTP. Sorry but this is not what the ECM shows. The ECM has the high sliding away south. This is an Atlantic dominated snapshot at T240 of the 0z ECM:

 

In some ways the UKMO is even more progressive than the ECM. This is T144 and this is certainly not a serious block and it certainly is being shifted:

 

 

Incorrect, yes we are influenced by LP but those do not clear through east of us.  Look at the run on the NH profile, that block to our East/NE goes absolutely nowhere.  Now what one mustn’t think is that a deep cold easterly is iminent.  Put that to oneside.  We want the PV to be ‘stressed’, and it is

 

BFTP

Edited November 12, 2022 by BLAST FROM THE PAST

[Frosty.]

Can I have a P please Bob?!.. …any P that shows any hint of cold will do?…  …looking on the bright side…it’s still autumn.. phew!! 🐿

 

 

Edited November 12, 2022 by jon snow

[MATTWOLVES 3]

A big question for you all to ponder folks! Many of us love a good cold snap with snow and ice,but the key question is do we hope its an intense 10 fay freeze with big snowfalls or a repeat of 2010 when we get a good month of it?

When we all know that many will suffer if we did end up with a long hard Winter! NHS strikes and high energy bills would make it unbearable for many....thats one serious concern that troubles me.

But I have to admit the enthusiast in me would love nothing more than a good shot at Winter proper but I will be keeping an open mind and hoping that any of you who begin to suffer will get all the luck and help they can get.

Like many have said there's no point in getting hung up over where we are in mid November....one thing for sure is that next week will feel more seasonal than for quite some time,and the Exter update states that temps could fall below the average as we move  into Xmas month!

It will soon be the season of joy and happiness but not for all of us and all of you,so I hope that you all can have a little joy and good fortune as we move closer towards the big day.

Final thoughts....I feel we could be looking at something a fair bit colder through December and into the following month. Just check out this NH chart towards months end...It looks primed for action!

Much love guys and gals  enjoy yourselves.

[Methuselah]

Oh dear! The GFS 12Z is out to T+240... and there's no sign of imminent snowfall. But, who cares, it's not even winter!

    

[Allseasons-Si]

21 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

Oh dear! The GFS 12Z is out to T+240... and there's no sign of imminent snowfall. But, who cares, it's not even winter!

    

And a bit on and everythings backed west,...a lot

12z 312 vs 06z 318...

the 12z looks good to me Pete with the Atlantic held west of the meridian

Edited November 12, 2022 by Allseasons-si

[Methuselah]

22 minutes ago, Allseasons-si said:

And a bit on and everythings backed west,...a lot

12z 312 vs 06z 318...

the 12z looks good to me Pete with the Atlantic held west of the meridian

Well, Si, I have no idea at all about how this winter will pan out... But, of one thing I'm certain: the Atlantic Ocean has always been 'held west of the Meridian'!

Anyway, it's not winter yet; the GFS at T+360 doesn't worry me in the least!

     

 

[Allseasons-Si]

The control inside day ten twitches my eyebrow somewhat with blocking from Scandi to E Greenland,...jet forced further SE too

[Allseasons-Si]

5 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

Well, Si, I have no idea at all about how this winter will pan out... But, of one thing I'm certain: the Atlantic Ocean has always been 'held west of the Meridian'!

Anyway, it's not winter yet; the GFS at T+360 doesn't worry me in the least!

     

 

Just looking at the building blocks for trends ATM Pete

[Kirkcaldy Weather]

Tell you what thats quite a standout run from the 12z UKMO. Cant remember many Novembers resembling that setup 

You can see the almost split in the TPV lobes (hints of a similar pattern at higher levels of the strat too) 500hpa shows it nicely 

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

1 hour ago, Ed Stone said:

Oh dear! The GFS 12Z is out to T+240... and there's no sign of imminent snowfall. But, who cares, it's not even winter!

    

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

6 hours ago, Ed Stone said:

I did a search on the Beeb, for all the very cold air that's there. But, alas, if it is there, it's steadfastly avoiding any major cities. At least for the next five days or so!

That said, Moscow is down for a max of +2C next week... Wake me up when it's -14!

And now for today's GFS 06Z operational run:

    

    

    

Well, at least the warm Atlantic will beef up western areas' rainfall totals, if nothing else!

Search harder…you’ll find ridiculous cold.  Maybe Canada?  

 

BFTP

Edited November 12, 2022 by BLAST FROM THE PAST

[BlueHedgehog074]

Now, now, now… let’s keep it friendly please guys, or we’ll have to zap the posts to dust. Plus, we’ll make you eat a whole plate of fallen-on-the-floor brussel sprouts.

[GSP]

Seeing a chart like this reminded me of a forecast by I believe Jack Scott in the seventies when he said there is High Pressure over Scandinavia, and it’ll probably stay there until April influencing our weather from time to time.

[Sceptical]

"Atlantic onslaught second half of November" according to Gavs weather followed by possible easterly winds, although he does go on to point out that Europe won't be that cold. Sods law.

[Methuselah]

2 minutes ago, Sceptical said:

"Atlantic onslaught second half of November" according to Gavs weather followed by possible easterly winds, although he does go on to point out that Europe won't be that cold. Sods law.

A prognosis that's not exactly refuted by the latest GFS ensembles either:

    

    

An imminent Beast from the East? I don't think so!

[johncam]

Heights to our south killing any chance of any type of Easterly at the moment 

[Dancerwithwings]

Well if this came off…it’ll be a storm that’ll bring headlines for sure

[ItNeverSnowsInWindsor]

The GFS has been chopping and changing from dry one run to unsettled another then back to dry.

Hopefully we get to know by Sunday how next week is looking Snow wise for Scandinavia!

[Frosty.]

The GEFS 12z, here and there longer term is trying to bring some wintry cheer to coldies in the form of an easterly / northerly!….I must admit to being very bored by this obnoxiously mild autumn now, day in day out, night in night out, weathermen saying another very mild day…pffffft….however, I think the wheel will turn and coldies will be grinning from ear to ear at some point in the next three or four months! ️  

 

[Uncertainty]

There is mounting evidence that a substantial anomalous block is going to form and persist to our NE. I don’t want to give it a name, but it’s a big block forming and most likely persisting over Scandinavia. Maybe you can give it your own name. A ‘north Estonian wedge’ perhaps? @johncammight even call it a ‘winter killing mild festing flatcake’? I’ll be really buzzing when you do actually like a chart John, that’ll be winter arriving for me
 

Regardless of its identification. It’s big, and it’s going to influence our weather going forward whatever we name it. In fact, ‘it’ is what I’m going to call it for the rest of this post just to avoid any confusion…
 

In the short term, the developing block (it) is going to slow down the parade of lows heading towards us from the freezing 48 states across the way.

Here ‘it’ is, residing anomalously at 1025mb over North Norway. A North Norwegian Nodule. 

This means unsettled conditions will dominate, as the lows have no where to go other than stall and dump their rainfall.

In the 8-10 day range, as ever, there are multiple options. Especially when, as BA has shown, an Arctic high is involved. On the 12z ecm ‘it’ becomes ever more influential on our weather, having now merged with said Arctic high to become a behemoth. 

On the other hand it could well lose its identity, slipping south into oblivion after its Finnish holiday as per the GEM.

In the medium term, it continues to influence the forecast. The GEFS have been really, really consistent over the last day or two on it residing in… yep. you guessed it. 

There it is on the GEPS too!

NAEFS: You can’t escape it.

 

It even looks to be a big player on the clusters too.

And it was there in week 3 on the ec46 

It was there at the dawn of time, probably.

So there you have it. It is coming. It might even set a chain of events in motion that triggers an ssw in December. Think 1984, without Big Brother. 

Maybe that’s what we should call it: Our (Scandinavian looking) Big Brother. And we may as well accept it, as it’s here to stay.

‘He gazed up at the enormous face. Forty years it had taken him to learn what kind of smile was hidden beneath the dark moustache. O cruel, needless misunderstanding! O stubborn, self-willed exile from the loving breast! Two gin-scented tears trickled down the sides of his nose. But it was all right, everything was all right, the struggle was finished. He had won the victory over himself. He loved Big Brother.’