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Model Output Discussion - Deeper into Autumn

BlueHedgehog074
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Paul
Message added by Paul,

With winter now almost upon us, the model thread is getting ever busier, and as such it's important to keep it on topic. So, please keep your posts to discussing the model output, and for more general winter weather chat please use the winter thread. 

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johncam Seasoned

johncam

Posted
  • Location: Coatbridge, Scotland 129 m
  • Weather Preferences: snow in winter,warm sun in summer!!!!
  • Location: Coatbridge, Scotland 129 m
Posted
10 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

the gefs mean at T300 a little less exhuberant 

 

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Think anything that far out won't be correct anyway , if we all stuck to 5-7 days there wouldn't be the constant disappointment we all get from time to time 

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Methuselah Maestro

Methuselah

Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
Posted
6 minutes ago, johncam said:

Think anything that far out won't be correct anyway , if we all stuck to 5-7 days there wouldn't be the constant disappointment we all get from time to time 

Are there any indications of any major upcoming snowfalls in today's GEFS 06Z temperature ensembles? I thought not!

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Oh well, it's back to the drawing (I mean Ouija) board?:santa-emoji:

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Downburst Seasoned

Downburst

Posted
  • Location: Ireland - East Coast
  • Location: Ireland - East Coast
Posted
1 hour ago, prolongedSnowLover said:

Does anyone have the precipitation totals for the previous two runs ?

Would be good to see how the snowfall projections are looking for Norway.

ECM has a good chart for total snow over 6 hours. Of interest to highlands of Scotland is snow for Sunday morning, John explains so well above as to why that is 

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But I question these charts (difficult snow forecasts) as have a look at south west Ireland, admittedly very mountainous in Kerry, but still Could contain: Plot, Chart, Map, Atlas, Diagram

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Rain All Night Accomplished

Rain All Night

Posted
  • Location: Dorset
  • Weather Preferences: Warm and dry, or very cold. See my profile for model trivia
  • Location: Dorset
Posted (edited)

Is that what you call a "Barlett" showing in two of these cluster representatives? Though not on the one that most resembles the mean.

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Could contain: Plot, Chart, Nature, Outdoors, PersonCould contain: Plot, Chart, Nature, OutdoorsCould contain: Plot, Chart, Nature, Outdoors, Map, Sea, Water, Person

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Seems a lot of mild would come up if that were in place.

Edited by RainAllNight
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Skullzrulerz Maestro

Skullzrulerz

Posted
  • Location: St Austell,Cornwall
  • Location: St Austell,Cornwall
Posted
1 hour ago, sheikhy said:

Latest 06z ecm at 90 hours has scandi high backing west even more and cold pool in near continent further west!!!move toward ukmo!!!🤘

That's a good start, if we can get to that position that is.

Get the cold in first then reap the rewards later?

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Scandinavian High. Experienced

Scandinavian High.

Posted
  • Location: Orpington Kent
  • Weather Preferences: Snow freezing rain heat waves
  • Location: Orpington Kent
Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, sheikhy said:

Latest ecm 06z for 90 hours attached...

 

 

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Latest met office update now saying colder air from the east could send temperatures slightly below  average.

Edited by Scandinavian High.
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Sceptical Veteran

Sceptical

Posted
  • Location: Alford, Aberdeenshire.
  • Location: Alford, Aberdeenshire.
Posted
4 minutes ago, Scandinavian High. said:

Latest met office update now saying colder air from the east could send temperatures below average.

And transient snow.

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Methuselah Maestro

Methuselah

Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
Posted
7 minutes ago, Sceptical said:

And transient snow.

And, should it dare to fall after midnight, you miss it anyway!🤣

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Cold Winter Night Accomplished

Cold Winter Night

Posted
  • Location: Near Gouda, Holland. 6m Below Sea Level.
  • Weather Preferences: Sun, snow, ice. Very hot or very cold.
  • Location: Near Gouda, Holland. 6m Below Sea Level.
Posted
1 hour ago, RainAllNight said:

Is that what you call a "Barlett" showing in two of these cluster representatives? Though not on the one that most resembles the mean.

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No, a Bartlett High is a persistent High over Biscay and/or the Alps, with a Low anomaly to our N/NW, a High that keeps being renewed from Labrador through the Azores in a seemingly endless cycle. It is tied to a strongly Positive NAO.

Although your chart shows high anomalies in the "Bartlett area," they're transient, plus with all the positive anomalies over the North Atlantic and Scandinavia being shown, it can't be qualified as that dreaded Bartlett High.

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ItNeverSnowsInWindsor Experienced

ItNeverSnowsInWindsor

Posted
  • Location: Windsor
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and cold
  • Location: Windsor
Posted
2 hours ago, Downburst said:

Speaking of SNOW, from this today on the ground, and a week later. Winter is approaching now

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Are these available in Netweather ?

I can’t seem to find them.

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sheikhy Maestro

sheikhy

Posted
  • Location: Leicester
  • Location: Leicester
Posted
Just now, TSNWK said:

Are you happy so far or not ? 🙂@sheikhy

Well the gfs seems to have gone east  but ukmo seems to have steadied the ship and is very consistent with this mornings run!low is sliding at 144 hours!if ecm joins ukmo you would think the gfs is doing what gfs does lol!!

Just now, TSNWK said:

Are you happy so far or not ? 🙂@sheikhy

Well the gfs seems to have gone east  but ukmo seems to have steadied the ship and is very consistent with this mornings run!low is sliding at 144 hours!if ecm joins ukmo you would think the gfs is doing what gfs does lol!!

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TSNWK Maestro

TSNWK

Posted
  • Location: Orpington Kent.
  • Location: Orpington Kent.
Posted
1 minute ago, sheikhy said:

Well the gfs seems to have gone east  but ukmo seems to have steadied the ship and is very consistent with this mornings run!low is sliding at 144 hours!if ecm joins ukmo you would think the gfs is doing what gfs does lol!!

Well the gfs seems to have gone east  but ukmo seems to have steadied the ship and is very consistent with this mornings run!low is sliding at 144 hours!if ecm joins ukmo you would think the gfs is doing what gfs does lol!!

Uk was our best run this morning and the latest met updates appear to be siding with their own model   

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sheikhy Maestro

sheikhy

Posted
  • Location: Leicester
  • Location: Leicester
Posted

Man the gfs dont look great at all up to 192 hours!!!that is some serious low in the atlantic and the disruption into europe has pretty much vanished compared to earlier runs!yeh could change in fi but once again thats fi lol!!

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Kentspur Accomplished

Kentspur

Posted
  • Location: Live in NW Kent by the Thames & work in SE London
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy November to March and Sunny and warm April to October
  • Location: Live in NW Kent by the Thames & work in SE London
Posted

Early stages but GEM is marginally better than its 0z at the same timeframe HIGH further west a little

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TSNWK Maestro

TSNWK

Posted
  • Location: Orpington Kent.
  • Location: Orpington Kent.
Posted
2 minutes ago, sheikhy said:

Man the gfs dont look great at all up to 192 hours!!!that is some serious low in the atlantic and the disruption into europe has pretty much vanished compared to earlier runs!yeh could change in fi but once again thats fi lol!!

If the chase was easy 90% of us would not be here...:) the drama.. met update /UKM and Gem treanding in right direction.  GFS backing away this afternoon... 

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sheikhy Maestro

sheikhy

Posted
  • Location: Leicester
  • Location: Leicester
Posted
5 minutes ago, TSNWK said:

If the chase was easy 90% of us would not be here...:) the drama.. met update /UKM and Gem treanding in right direction.  GFS backing away this afternoon... 

Gfs seems to be missing that cold pool very early on that the ukmo has had on both the 0z and 12 so far!!!seems to be making a big difference on propping that high up further north and west!!

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Downburst Seasoned

Downburst

Posted
  • Location: Ireland - East Coast
  • Location: Ireland - East Coast
Posted
23 minutes ago, prolongedSnowLover said:

Are these available in Netweather ?

I can’t seem to find them.

they are from the main ECMWF site. https://charts.ecmwf.int/ there's a lot in there, including lots of snow measures etc. enjoy!

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Kirkcaldy Weather Maestro

Kirkcaldy Weather

Posted
  • Location: Kirkcaldy, Fife, Scotland 20m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snow,Thunderstorms mix both for heaven THUNDERSNOW 😜😀🤤🥰
  • Location: Kirkcaldy, Fife, Scotland 20m ASL
Posted

GFS P looks good might not get all the way there on this run but here's a rough guide what we're looking for 

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Mega low 850hpas lurking Could contain: Plot, Chart, Art, Outdoors, Accessories, Nature

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