Model Output Discussion - Deeper into Autumn

[Frosty.]

Just to prove I don’t always post fantasy cfs charts! …I’ve cherry picked a few from the GEFS 12z! ….I really don’t like seeing a rampant Atlantic which is why I’ve posted these..need I say more?… the bottom line is, I want a proper winter this time, recent ones have stunk this place out! ..time for something better…and I don’t mean the autumn statement!  

 

[Methuselah]

And, at the end of the day (spot the cliche!) you don't need a frigid winter for notable snow events: the winter of 1970 wasn't terribly cold, from what I recall, but it certainly produced some outstanding blizzards? Also, as someone else has already pointed out, the mid-November predictions for 2009-10 and December 2010 were hardly that inspiring TBH!

IMO, drastic departures from the norm tend to catch us all out?

[Met4Cast]

Looking at the ensemble suites & ignoring the dets there really is no support for cold into the UK in the mid-extended range. A brief period of below average temperatures this weekend/early next week but beyond that quite a strong signal for a return to above average conditions right out into early December.

So all in all.. a very grim outlook for snowmantics. 

[CoventryWeather]

29 minutes ago, Day 10 said:

For the fun of it, just thought I would see how November 2010 looked compared with today.

Here's how they compare.

Surprised that it's that similar. Apart from that deep low near Greenland..

[BlueHedgehog074]

@phil nw. Some good points you’ve unearthed in your post. In fact, none of the latest operational models, especially the 12Z GFS and GEM, show the Vortex becoming all super moody over Greenland. This continuing being the case on both of those models up to 240 hours:

12Z GFS

 

12Z GEM

Heart of the Vortex mostly on the other side of Greenland just to the North of it, especially on GFS where it’s greens occupying Greenland. While a weak Greenland and/or Canadian Vortex doesn’t (at least not always) necessarily guarantee cold and snowy weather for the UK, it can be a great thing to see from a cold weather fan’s perspective. Especially the way the lack of strong low heights to our North-West/North can allow Northern blocking via high heights and surface High Pressure to develop. Clearly can be some exceptions where a Greenland Vortex doesn’t always have to be any enemy for UK cold if, for example, it was just about far enough West and allowed Scandinavian heights to become influential enough to bring cold, wintry, conditions to our part of the world. 

Nevertheless, we’ve always got this as a secret weapon should the blue and purple thing cause trouble for the cold weather enthusiasts in the future!

[carinthian]

Monday paints a rather complex picture over the British Isles. Looks like going to be the coldest day of the Autumn season with widespread single digit max temps and lowest temps in the NE.

C

[Scandinavian High.]

17 minutes ago, Met4Cast said:

Looking at the ensemble suites & ignoring the dets there really is no support for cold into the UK in the mid-extended range. A brief period of below average temperatures this weekend/early next week but beyond that quite a strong signal for a return to above average conditions right out into early December.

So all in all.. a very grim outlook for snowmantics. 

Yes not looking good for snow for uk at moment any chance of sudden switch frosty outlook 

[minus10]

Well although the end of the gfs12z run doesnt look that promising from a cold perspective the z500 mean anomolies still having a reasonable shot at higher than average heights to the north....

[Day 10]

19 minutes ago, CoventryWeather said:

Surprised that it's that similar. Apart from that deep low near Greenland..

My thoughts also, definitely some similarities there. Probably means absolutely nothing in the grand scheme of things, but thought it was worth posting.

[sheikhy]

Ouch ecm!!!!!on to the next saga lol!!!!been raining here all day!!!!!!with plenty more to come!!!

[northwestsnow]

EC is ,well,Atlantic low after Atlantic low.

[Met4Cast]

10 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

EC is ,well,Atlantic low after Atlantic low.

A wise man once said that the ECM is the best model.. 

I did think the stronger/more amplified high of a couple of days ago on the ECM was the models over-amplification bias at play. The weather just doesn't seem to be playing ball with the usual drivers this year, too many conflicting signals. Making it very difficult to forecast.

[Frosty.]

Here’s a few more from the wonderful CFS 6z to take our minds off the Atlantic filth!…I salute you. 🫡 cfs for at least showing some nice wintery eye candy this winter! 👁 ️ …and here’s a photo from when it did snow once in my back garden!  

 

 

[Methuselah]

5 minutes ago, jon snow said:

Here’s a few more from the wonderful CFS 6z to take our minds off the Atlantic filth!…I salute you. 🫡 cfs for at least showing some nice wintery eye candy this winter! 👁 ️ …and here’s a photo from when it did snow once in my back garden!  

 

 

Righty ho, it's going to snow!?

[Cold Winter Night]

EPS 12z, after a period of aggressive Atlantic influence up til Day 10, seems to be hinting at a more High pressure dominated start of December in its far reaches:

[minus10]

Looking at the ecm 12z mean anomoly Z500 run it appears to me that the basic weather pattern doesnt change much over the entire 10 day run...we still end up with the enhanced heights to the ne, enhanced heights over the Aleuticians coming and going...and the troughing to the sw over the Atlantic..

With the provisos that  it is the mean which will not pick out more localised variations or sudden changes and as we know 10 days is a long time in meteorology, i am of the opinion of no major changes to be expected yet...that doesnt preclude cold or extra mild shots....after 10 days..well...as with the clusters above..who knows...

 

 

[Frosty.]

The outer limits of the GEFS 12z which takes us boldly into the start of the meteorological winter hints that the Atlantic would lose some of its venom?!..perhaps a calmer colder crisper start to winter?..obviously I would love a stronger wintery signal but hey-ho…we need to start somewhere don’t we?… and here’s a wintery view from my front garden.. from several years ago!..  

 

 

[northwestsnow]

EC 46 again suggesting the Scandy High eventually neutralizes the Atlantic as we hit the second week in Dec..

Edited November 17, 2022 by northwestsnow

[Don]

1 hour ago, Met4Cast said:

The weather just doesn't seem to be playing ball with the usual drivers this year, too many conflicting signals. Making it very difficult to forecast.

The weather hasn't been 'playing ball' with the usual drivers for sometime now and I think we all know why!  Yes, forecasting possibly more difficult than ever nowadays!!

[Don]

5 minutes ago, jon snow said:

 and here’s a wintery view from my front garden.. from several years ago!..  

 

 

Was that December 2017?  All I would give to have a scene like that this winter!

6 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

EC 46 again suggesting the Scandy High eventually neutralizes the Atlantic as we hit the second week in Dec..

Will be interesting to see what the Met Office make of it.

[cyclonic happiness]

9 minutes ago, Don said:

The weather hasn't been 'playing ball' with the usual drivers for sometime now and I think we all know why!  Yes, forecasting possibly more difficult than ever nowadays!!

yes, the Tonga eruption, it's played havoc 

[Don]

1 minute ago, cyclonic happiness said:

yes, the Tonga eruption, it's played havoc 

Quite possibly a factor yes.

[Cambrian]

Big spread across the 12z ops for Monday - temperatures at 96 hours and northward extent of the rain and the marginal snow at 102 hours. 

The ECM and GEM take the rain and mild air further north than the GFS.

 
 

The GFS is keeping it colder with the precipitation further south, out of interest, the op is slightly less cold and slightly further north than the op-to-be (para).

 
 

More to the point, if either GFS is anywhere near right, with the precipitation and a keen southeasterly or easterly wind set in (these from the para)

 

- that’s going to be a raw day for many to start next week. 

Edited November 17, 2022 by Cambrian

[stodge]

Evening all

The main feature remains the inability of Atlantic LP systems to break past the Meridian - effectively the eastward-travelling LP hit a block and either disrupt or recurve back into the Atlantic. It's the kind of behaviour we see with tropical features as they hit higher-level ridges and are forced either over them or to retreat from them.

It's a million miles from a typical zonal spell when you would see LP sweeping through to Russia and beyond - this year they get as far as London and stop.

That foundation limits where we can go - periodically, as now, there's just enough energy to extend the trough east or possible south east (under negative alignment) as the heights are forced more to the north or north east - this is the hope of those wanting a colder spell - the heights extend to the north and start to move south dragging the weak jet ever further south.

Little sign of that if I'm being honest - indeed, the longer range charts look to this observer to be more of the same with a bit more positive alignment as eventually the Azores HP manages to ridge into Iberia and re-establish the SW'ly flow.

 

[bluearmy]

hard to have much faith in the product (zonal flow at 10hpa) 

Ec46 from Monday                                               Three days later 

      

Edited November 17, 2022 by bluearmy