December 2022 C.E.T. and EWP contests _ start of a new contest year

[snowray]

4.9c and 48mm please.

[syed2878]

For first month of winter 2022/2023 i'm going for 7.1C as for precip i'm going for 45MM. thank you.

[Stargazer]

I'm noting the early signals for a colder settled spell - let's say 4.6 and 64mm.

[NeilN]

3.9c and 22mm. Cold and Dry. 

[Wold Topper]

3.8°c and 63mm please

[NorthYorksWeather]

2.9c and 48mm please many thankyous

[JeffC]

4.1 C and 80mms please

[DR(S)NO]

4.0c and 80mm thank you please

[WarwickshireLad]

6.9C and 25mm for me please

[Cymro]

1.4, 78mm 

[Leo97t]

3.6c and 90mm

[jonboy]

I rarely go early and usually wait until the day before but what the heck I'm going 2.6 c and  124mm which would make it a really interesting December

[Mark Neal.]

4.4c. 75mm (In form of snow by midmonth onwards... )

[John88B]

3.7c and 50mm please.

[moorlander]

4.1 and 53mm for me please

[Metwatch]

Probably the only month that will be below average this year.

Drier than recent too.

3.6⁰C and 34mm

[Summer Sun]

4.2c for me please

[Snowboy111]

4.8 and 126mm

[summer blizzard]

4.1C, 53mm.

[Connor Bailey Degnan]

1.2c, 27mm

 

[Mapantz]

3.5°C / 44mm

[LetItSnow!]

@Roger J Smith maybe can answer this curious question for me - what's the biggest drop from November to December? I can think of December 1981 which had about a 7 degree drop from November's average. Are there any larger drops?

[icykev]

1.9c 49mm thanks  

[Roger J Smith]

3 hours ago, LetItSnow! said:

@Roger J Smith maybe can answer this curious question for me - what's the biggest drop from November to December? I can think of December 1981 which had about a 7 degree drop from November's average. Are there any larger drops?

That was the largest drop by 7.4 deg, in CET v2.0, from 7.5 to 0.1.

The second largest was 6.6 deg, a tie between 1817 (9.1 to 2.5) and 1822 (8.2 to 1.6), then 1890 fell 6.5 (5.7 to -0.8), 1846 dropped 6.4 (6.9 to 0.5), 1788 fell 6.3 (6.0 to -0.3) which was duplicated by 1899 (8.5 to 2.2), 1730 down 5.8 (from 9.2 to 3.4) which was matched by 1874 (5.6 to -0.2), and 2010 (5.1 to -0.7), all just ahead of 1818 at 5.7 (9.5 to 3.8) and 1732, 1963 and 2009 at 5.6 (7.2 to 1.6), (8.2 to 2.6) and (8.6 to 3.0).

1678, 1680, 1844, 1917 and 1939 had falls of 5.5 deg (6.0 to 0.5), (6.5 to 1.0), (5.9 to 0.4), (7.8 to 2.3) and (8.7 to 3.2).  1995 rounds out the top twenty at 5.4 (7.5 to 2.1). 

Although 1938 only fell by 5.0 (9.4 to 4.4) it's worth noting that by mid-month there was severe cold and snow for about a week, after a November with a very similar profile to this year. Also 1946 fell 5.0 from 8.1 to 3.1 C. 

It's interesting that these large falls in temperature at the start of winter appear to cluster, more than half of the years that are listed are in pairs either one or two years apart. This may speak more to the tendency of mild Novembers to follow soon after a previous example, since to get these large drops to December you generally need to start from a reasonably mild November.

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will post a forecast on the 30th, current guidance has me thinking very cold CET but if that cold signal weakens we could easily end up in more average territory. 

[cumbrian ice]

2.1c and 66mm for me