Model Output Discussion - moving into Winter

[sundog]

The cold air back in Dec 81 set in around the same time. With all the comparisons to 2010 poor old Dec 81 has been forgotten.  First chart Dec 8th  81, second Ecm for the 8th.

Edited November 30, 2022 by sundog

[BlueHedgehog074]

Will probably find, as is the case sometimes with these things, some kind of half way solution between what the ECMWF/GEM shows and what the GFS shows. Nice to see the GFS showing a bit more of a cleaner evolution to Greenland heights though.

 

[Snowy L]

Big step to the ECM from the 06z. Still not perfect though as again, strong Canadian lobe linking to Siberia causes GH to be tilted NE/SW rather than N/S seen with ECM, favouring more west based greenland high than we'd like on our side of the north pole.

[sorepaw1]

Morning all,  gfs T+168 hrs, I know  precipitation charts aren't that accurate. I would like to think something of a wintery mix to most areas on this chart.

And cold at night under clear skies.

That Greenland high is quite something. I'm trying to remember a year I've seen such a setup. 

 

[phil nw.]

Yes GFS06z is ok until around day 6 and is close to the ECM.After that though the trough from the north east disrupts all over the shop and halts the cleaner feed of colder air that is shown on the ECM suite.

 

[seabreeze86]

What is the GFS doing now looks like it’s setting up a easterly . Very strange set up 

[Frostbite1980]

Is that low west of Spain going to scupper things or maybe bring a nice draw from the E/NE.....

[tight isobar]

The draw we want.. sinking jet.. with block in situ = big draw of deepening lower uppers.. you’d have to say a notable cold SPELL is welln,truly on the horizon!

[Lloyd1]

God it’s funny watching these models All over the shop. Hopefully no major downgrades like last winter (tears were shed). 
 

I can see ECM bringing something a bit milder back on the 7th but then temps slowly dropping back off, I haven’t had a chance to assess models yet today but I’m assuming it’s due to Greenland High trying to creep further east. 

[Singularity]

Alright, so not a complete cave-in, rather a significant step toward the other modelling, via being a little slower (only by about 12 hours!) to sever the Pacific side connection to the high pressure over the Arctic.

Yet even that sends enough additional cold air toward the UK that the polar boundary is forced to locate further south, with opportunities to source cold from the east down the line.

So, a significant development in my opinion, though as I said, we need to see how the next couple of GFS runs behave first.

[Ali1977]

Even the mean at day 5 looks more ECM like with the trough setting up to deliver the northerly , a good step for the better but we just need everything to move slightly more east for the holy grail.

[IDO]

1 minute ago, tight isobar said:

The draw we want.. sinking jet.. with block in situ = big draw of deepening lower uppers.. you’d have to say a notable cold SPELL is welln,truly on the horizon!

Yes, that driver for cold is def getting that initial drop from the Asian tPV, as that chunk will help stop the GH from sinking and/or interacting with the HP systems to our south. As you say, get the jet to sink and cold is the watchword. Obviously ECM keeps the fuel pumping in and looks the better synoptic up to D10 and maybe beyond as it locks in the GH.

[Frostbite1980]

It will feel bitter, especially at night under those slack conditions.....hoar frost and freezing fog with temperatures struggling to get above freezing.....

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

GFS maintaining an easterly flow.  It’s cold and I also favour that as an outcome rather than 2010esque.  Yes to get the cold but the evolution following on 06z seems very plausible indeed.  
 

BFTP

[Day 10]

GFS Day 10, all change as usual.

[Paul_1978]

13 minutes ago, sorepaw1 said:

Morning all,  gfs T+168 hrs, I know  precipitation charts aren't that accurate. I would like to think something of a wintery mix to most areas on this chart.

And cold at night under clear skies.

That Greenland high is quite something. I'm trying to remember a year I've seen such a setup. 

 

Paging @Weather-history to let us know when we have had monster Greenland highs in the past and how long they lasted

[Liam Burge]

This is all very exciting! Definitely getting into the Winter spirit now.  

[Eagle Eye]

This GFS run makes a lot of sense in its evolution (maybe my bias coming in).

Look at the mean at 150 hours and you can really see that the Greenland high is arguably the best positioned on the GFS mean it's been since it got into a time space where we start getting fairly accurate.

 

[ScottSnow]

The GFS seems to have been all over the place since the reported upgrade (that apparently is less accurate).

[sheikhy]

Sorry but you just gota laugh at the gfs!!!nuttin more to say!!

[TSNWK]

anyone order Genoa LOW!

 

[Northwest NI]

Just now, TSNWK said:

anyone order Genoa LOW!

 

Yes, that was me.

[mushymanrob]

1 hour ago, Singularity said:

Come to think of it, a chart exists that demonstrates what I'm talking about.

As I suspected, mean polar boundary likely somewhere over southern UK (-5°C 850 hPa isotherm is usually a sufficient loose guide).

In fact the mean low pressure axis is arguably through the Channel.

Overall, support from the ECM det. pathway has increased this morning, though it's still not enough to make a confident call in my opinion.

 

Rouge UKM chart removed - thanks to @Blessed Weather

 

Appreciate the response, cheers, lets just see how accurate those anomaly charts are though, im still not 100% about this cold spell... or the severity of it..

49 minutes ago, Quicksilver1989 said:

GFS parallel also on board, what a chart!

is it?

[sorepaw1]

Looking at the Current models 

Just took my old winter beast out of my garage. 

Good improvement on the gfs 06z

I've got quite a bit of catching up to do on other models too

My Internet signal is shocking up here today. 

I can't get passed T+192hrs.

 

 

[Eagle Eye]

2 minutes ago, TSNWK said:

anyone order Genoa LOW!

 

Thanks for the delivery just don't throw it at my door.