Model Output Discussion - moving into Winter

[lassie23]

Here are my thoughts on the recent model output but in emojis.

[Mark wheeler]

3 minutes ago, Allseasons-si said:

Noboby posted the UKMO 168?

this scenario is coming together nicely.

Edit: snap @Mark wheeler

 

Yeah I have been continuously refreshing the page for 30mins LOL . Its a great trend this evening so far for sure .

one question to you and others though, are the uppers here concerning at this stage on these charts ?

[Derecho]

8 minutes ago, Midlands Ice Age said:

The real problem (IMO) here starts not at the Spanish low, but that there is insufficient 'push', coming down from the north. This can be seen also by virtue of the fact that the GFS takes longer to get the real cold air further south.  The GEM and ECM both have the more powerful  (and quicker0 polar front arrival here.  - Particularly the  stronger polar front coming down (with the GEM?), would push the low out of the way. 

MIA

I think the model output has firmed up on the Greenland high, I think the two main issues are a) whether the cold air over the Arctic pushes into Scandi because the high is so big and b) if the cold air heads straight towards us, will an area of low pressure act as a trigger? (and provide a big snow event?)

If the cold pushes directly into Scandi, this will make for a slower evolution but could bring a cold easterly further down the line.

I prefer outcome b). P15 in the GFS nails this perfectly.

You'd get sub zero maxima and -20C minima if that came off if there is deep snow cover. This is the most extreme scenario of course but we can hope!

Edited November 30, 2022 by Quicksilver1989

[Snowy L]

1 minute ago, Mark wheeler said:

Yeah I have been continuously refreshing the page for 30mins LOL . Its a great trend this evening so far for sure .

one question to you and others though, are the uppers here concerning at this stage on these charts ?

UKMO not perfect, not enough of that Scandi mass of low pressures makes it South and the little one over us looks like detaching from the main mass. ECM and GEM are 10/10, UKMO 7/10, GFS doesn't deserve a score.

[Allseasons-Si]

1 minute ago, Mark wheeler said:

Yeah I have been continuously refreshing the page for 30mins LOL . Its a great trend this evening so far for sure .

one question to you and others though, are the uppers here concerning at this stage on these charts ?

No,not at all at 168 hours away because we won't know the severity of the cold blast from the north just yet.

[Methuselah]

An interesting GFS 12Z run (I assume it's the new version?) which clearly builds a decent cold block, only to crumble it in Fantasy Island... But, with the Met favouring the other models, the only thing we need fear is Murphy's Law:

    

    

    

    

Anyhoo, for me, the crucial period will come at the back-end of next week: If we see the northerly the Met are suggesting, the whole of NW Europe will go into the freezer... If not: 

[I remember Atlantic 252]

GFS dosen't deserve a score, gone off again in FI, hope for good EC

 

[iceman1991]

47 minutes ago, Daniel* said:

I have been far from impressed by UKMO but maybe it is starting to smell the coffee. It is abundantly clear we haven't seen early winter potential like this since 2010 how UK surface weather evolves it is less clear but it is going to be cold if very cold on what we typically see.

 

I have also published my winter forecast for 2022/23... feel free to check it out, feeling bold this year!

Winter forecast 2022/23: The Winter of Discontent?

WWW.THESNOWDREAMER.BLOG

---

Winter Forecast Headlines: Overall over December, January and February the 3 months of meteorological winter, temperatures are forecast to be colder than average to 1991-2020 long-term average...

 

Very interesting read Daniel if you don’t mind me asking how did you get on with last winter and the one before ? 

[Polaris]

8 minutes ago, Allseasons-si said:

Noboby posted the UKMO 168?

this scenario is coming together nicely.

Edit: snap @Mark wheeler

Those 850s -8 are still way off. Need a real push for snow to lower levels. 

[Ali1977]

The GFSP starts showing snow/sleet showers quite widely as early as Sunday. Next week could be interesting if that Iberian low meets cold enough Air - battleground snow etc…

[Paul_1978]

1 minute ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

GFS dosen't deserve a score, gone off again in FI, hope for good EC

 

A temp chart for 14th Dec! Hardly worth mentioning. 

[Allseasons-Si]

1 minute ago, Polaris said:

Those 850s -8 are still way off. Need a real push for snow to lower levels. 

Remember that this model doesn't go that far out as to what the ECM,gem and gfs show,plus you can see kinks in that flow to the north on that chart i have circled,this would bring the colder uppers in an unstable flow.

[MATTWOLVES 3]

7 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

GFS dosen't deserve a score, gone off again in FI, hope for good EC

 

The problem is far to many are putting all there faith in this model,and tbh the newer updated version is gonna be a complete pain in everybody's backside! It will overplay cold sypnotics and most definitely blow up a low more times than someone blowing up a beach ball..

The best blend by far I feel will be UKMO and ECM...with GEM coming in next...I know longer even bother viewing the GFS op I instead wait for all the ensembles to run.

I'm feeling confident here we are gonna be seeing a very positive ec 12z run.

Feel free folks to linch me at 7pm if it throws a wobbler...I've got broad shoulders and I'm here for the duration at....

Matt.co.coldcamp22/23 the day the UK froze..

Edited November 30, 2022 by MATTWOLVES

[Noob]

Im getting a little confused, i thought this was model output discussion moving into winter, from what limited knowledge i do know winter isnt even here yet. Yet ive read so many posts about 2010 comparison  on a winter thats been and gone over 12 years ago. If someone says looks a bit like it that should be it not posts trying to disprove a simple comment made as the weather hasn'st even happened yet . Im trying too learn but it becomes so difficult when you have to troll through post just to gain bits of knowledge and today has been so frustrating. Argue about it in a pm after the event has happened . Forgive my rant im 49 and find it so childish , just enjoy whats being shown .

Peace out  too all 

[Methuselah]

4 minutes ago, Noob said:

Im getting a little confused, i thought this was model output discussion moving into winter, from what limited knowledge i do know winter isnt even here yet. Yet ive read so many posts about 2010 comparison  on a winter thats been and gone over 12 years ago. If someone says looks a bit like it that should be it not posts trying to disprove a simple comment made as the weather hasn'st even happened yet . Im trying too learn but it becomes so difficult when you have to troll through post just to gain bits of knowledge and today has been so frustrating. Argue about it in a pm after the event has happened . Forgive my rant im 49 and find it so childish , just enjoy whats being shown .

Peace out  too all 

Did you miss the comparisons to December 1962?

[Singularity]

Regarding 850s, worth bearing in mind that air sourced from the high Arctic gives us a bit more leeway versus North Atlantic, due to lower dew points.

Warm seas will counteract somewhat but on balance I can see around -5°C 850s being a reasonable benchmark for the setup. Maybe 1-2°C higher if & where winds fall light, away from coasts.

[Noob]

1962 i wasn't even born then and don't really care tbh lol

[Tim Bland]

Hope ECM follows the GEM 

[Mike Poole]

ECM T120 compared to UKMO.

Looks even cleaner this run, going to be epic.

[weatherguy]

ECM well on its way here at +120h!  Enough to drag me out of my slumber, that's for sure. 

[Kasim Awan]

Can hear the distant marches of the Arctic army when I look at this

[Midlands Ice Age]

5 minutes ago, Noob said:

1962 i wasn't even born then and don't really care tbh lol

There are also signs of a 1947 redux in the good old longer term GFS>>>

 

[tight isobar]

Ecm lining up nicely @120.. be nice for a mirror Synoptics of the Canadian ....

[Mike Poole]

ECM T144 compared to GEM and UKMO:

I’d say ECM cleaner evolution than GEM.  Quick route to cold this.

[on the coast]

The 168chart could be quite special.