Model Output Discussion - moving into Winter

[Guest]

Just now, Eskimo said:

Anyone know why it takes models to eek out frames of data over a period of x-amount of time? Why does it take the ECM, for example, nearly an hour?

Somebody is watching the netweather forum to gauge members responses before teasing them with the next chart.

[Tim Bland]

Plenty of snow showers midweek onwards 

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

168 CANNOT be like 0z 168…..no way in hell

 

BFTP

[Mark wheeler]

7 minutes ago, Skullzrulerz said:

Are you referring to a West Based NAO?

Sorry I should have been clearer. No this morning the push south of the 1st fronts seem to gone through the Atlantic or far west  rather than the uk . Before this morning ecm gave us  a direct hit . Of course I am happy to wait a few days as long as we make it in the end . Still learning from others and thanks to all on thread for brilliant responses to any questions.

Edited December 1, 2022 by Mark wheeler

[Singularity]

Well then - I can’t say I was expecting ECM to produce the coldest det run chart we’ve see. so far for next Wed but there it is… goes to show, we really can’t take individual runs very seriously at the moment. Too many moving parts in a highly abnormal pattern.

[Eagle Eye]

Cheers to the ECM  

[Guest]

ECMWF 168hrs = potentially snowy

[sheikhy]

Amazing ecm at 168 hours and a massive improvement over the 00z!!

[Allseasons-Si]

Under a slack flow,that would be dam cold with evap cooling bringing snow to lower levels,...what a run

ECM 168...

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

Deep snowfall…..

 

BFTP

[tight isobar]

If anyone moans or waffles b####x regarding the ec 12z I’m gonna come round and poke ya in the eye 👁...

[Man With Beard]

ECM T144 looks seriously wintry. Although, lows approaching from the NE aren't always as snowy as they might look.

[GSP]

This slack low which has settled over us originates and has migrated from Scandi.

There must be some pretty cold air wrapped up in and in the instability anything could happen of a wintry nature.

[Allseasons-Si]

1 minute ago, tight isobar said:

If anyone moans or waffles b####x regarding the ec 12z I’m gonna come round and poke ya in the eye 👁...

Cheers,...iv'e just waisted my coffee on me lap.

Edited December 1, 2022 by Allseasons-si

[Frosty.]

The ECMWF 12z op looks increasingly cold too my untrained eyes ?.. nice cold dam thicknesses there!…hey, I’m used to very mild rubbish, so this looks good.. go figure?.. !  

Edited December 1, 2022 by Frosty.

[swebby]

27 minutes ago, Geordiesnow said:

A polar low are not usually modelled until 24 to 48 hours. That is a nuisence shortwave which usually scupper cold set ups! If its over the UK it could bring more prolonged PPN but we need a clean flow before all of that. 

Not arguing with your analysis of the feature, i agree, it does look like a nuisance shortwave.

But just to say it has been pointed out previously that the improved resolution of some of the models over the past few years means polar lows can now crop up in the solutions a lot further out than 48hrs.  As to if they ever verify is another matter entirely.......

[Captain Shortwave]

I would guess there would be showers rotating around that low. However very low heights and slack winds will mean some very cold surface temperatures (negative double digit minima in favoured spots).

The day 8 chart is a tad frustrating. A reload from the north? A proper easterly under a sinking area of low pressure? We get neither really here but both options are there from day 7.

Edited December 1, 2022 by Captain Shortwave

[seb]

I mean I won’t ever take snow charts seriously even within a 24 hour time frame but I’ll bank 4cm and lows of -6 for my neck of the woods a week from today

[Methuselah]

1 minute ago, Man With Beard said:

ECM T144 looks seriously wintry. Although, lows approaching from the NE aren't always as snowy as they might look.

But with SSTs running warm, they might be even snowier?

[Guest]

ECMWF 192hrs - brrrr - severe frosts under that I'd say.

 

[Ali1977]

FI reload possibly looking at this. Cold run

[Cheshire Freeze]

Uppers are mixing out by D8 but we've probably got enough surface cold at this point to keep anything falling from the sky as snow

[Geordiesnow]

I think there is similarities between this run and this mornings run, it's a good run though because you get the initial proper cold blast followed by slack low pressure with the potential for some nice frosty weather. 

Obviously if you want something more long term, the initial northerly needs to be further eastwards but amplification to remain as good as the ECM shows and not like the UKMO run for example. 

 

[sheikhy]

Im waiting for someone to complain about the ecm like a walley!!!for me its the best run of the day!forget the gfs and its fi rubbish from the 12z this ecm brings it sooner which is why i pip it over the 12z gfs!

[Metwatch]

Night and midday temperatures next Friday from the ECM, very cold