Model Output Discussion - moving into Winter

[Downburst]

1 minute ago, Ali1977 said:

That’s a severe Thurs morning on this run - and this isn’t me cherry picking my location

Snowtastic, in a Slade kinda way 

[Vikos]

 

well, why not a polar high?

[Guest]

 Quickly printing this off  and sending  a fax to the inlaws letting them know xmas weather looking tricky best stay put, see you at Easter, weather permitting!...send

[sheikhy]

The mean and control look very good as well!nothing like ecm!!this saga is crazy!!!

[ghoneym]

9 minutes ago, Downburst said:

Pub run is a total misnomer. It used to, and I haven’t checked recently, but I believe it has the richest of data input. In the states this is the midday run. Not the evening run. So all data inputs into the operational and the ensemble’s. If anyone knows otherwise please confirm. And just to clarify, just because it’s 4 pm in the USA , doesn’t mean it’s not pub time in , far from it as it happens.

Metcheck.com - GFS GDAS Information - How much observation data went into this GFS run? Latest run and archive information

Less Balloon data on the 06z and 18z runs.

[Ali1977]

Just now, ghoneym said:

Metcheck.com - GFS GDAS Information - How much observation data went into this GFS run? Latest run and archive information

Less Balloon data on the 06z and 18z runs.

Less is more my misses keep telling me, and she’s always right so the GFS has nailed it

[Ali1977]

Possible the coldest set of ENS yet 

[TSNWK]

1 minute ago, Ali1977 said:

Possible the coldest set of ENS yet 

So what the heck is ecm op and many of its ensembles seeing? Or missing and vice Versa

[Don]

1 minute ago, TSNWK said:

So what the heck is ecm op and many of its ensembles seeing? Or missing and vice Versa

Hopefully the WRONG trend!!

[ghoneym]

Interesting that this latest run has a significant amount more data input that Typical. Those extra flyby's must have pumped much more water vapour into the atmosphere causing those snow depth chart increases....

[Allseasons-Si]

11 minutes ago, sheikhy said:

If ecm comes around tomorrow this place is gona explode!!

And if it doesn't,...im going to explode

the mean is looking pretty good so far along with the 850's and dew points.

[Vikos]

2 minutes ago, TSNWK said:

So what the heck is ecm op and many of its ensembles seeing? Or missing and vice Versa

classic GFS vs EC

 

[Ice Day]

Just now, TSNWK said:

So what the heck is ecm op and many of its ensembles seeing? Or missing and vice Versa

Quite simply, they are two different models with their own inbuilt biases. If I had to put my money on one, it would undoubtedly all go on the ECM.... but it is sometimes wrong 

[Don]

2 minutes ago, Ice Day said:

Quite simply, they are two different models with their own inbuilt biases. If I had to put my money on one, it would undoubtedly all go on the ECM.... but it is sometimes wrong 

Me too but no model is perfect, so we are not out of the game yet!!

[Aiden2012]

Perfect end to the pub run

[northwestsnow]

If anybody is aware of  any balloon data issues with ECM now is a good time to mention it.

Hearing it from Dave the plasterer while in the pub is acceptable 

Edited December 2, 2022 by northwestsnow

[Don]

4 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

If anybody is aware of  any balloon data issues with ECM now is a good time to mention it.

Hearing it from Dave the plasterer while in the pub is acceptable 

Apparently there were issues with balloon data for the 12z ECM?! 

I heard it from Cyril the cold seeker down the pub and i believe him!

Edited December 2, 2022 by Don

[Allseasons-Si]

The control is looking good

and what about this little whipper (jff at this range) at 216,there would be blizzards down the central spine of the country...

the mean is showing a NE'ly too with colder 850's

all to play for.

Edited December 2, 2022 by Allseasons-si
typo

[Malarky]

One thing that drew me to weather watching was that it’s so predictable.

 

Said nobody ever.

[ghoneym]

For anyone interested...from top left to top right picture on each run...

Air cargo flights - commercial aircraft flights - upper air satellite sensors - surface satellite sensors - weather balloons - sondes and other sensors - METAR observational Data 

Bottom left to right picture on each run...

Microwave surface sensors - previous model data run - Atmospheric surface profilers including LIDAR - satellite multi-layer sensors - surface observations inc. ships - Total data.

 

[MJB]

32 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

That’s a severe Thurs morning on this run - and this isn’t me cherry picking my location

Bang over my house lol

[mother nature rocks]

Atleast the Netweather Emotion Trainline is not yet on strike

All hail the GFS 18z

MNR

[Don]

2 minutes ago, mother nature rocks said:

Atleast the Netweather Emotion Trainline is not yet on strike

All hail the GFS 18z

MNR

The GFS pub run has cheered us up tonight, just hope we are not left feeling hungover with the 00z runs!!

[MJB]

Control sends a reload from the North

[Chertseystreamer79]

I dunno...gfs is so good, cold, snowy, and backed by cold ensemble suit, mean and control....

BUT....

Is it just 24 hours behind what the ecm has seen...

 

I'm hoping and praying as having just come back from lapland with the wife and kids we are missing the snows beauty! 

 

Everything crossed...

Edited December 2, 2022 by Chertseystreamer79