Winter 2022/23 - Moans, Ramps & Chat

[tinybill]

if  the  gfs  is  right  it kicksoff    march  4   , isee  over  pond they very bad storm this  week

[damianslaw]

I'm hoping next winter can deliver its coldest conditions run up to Christmas - New Year, its been an age we've had a cold run into christmas, 2010 last time, all since have been mild/exceptionally mild. Late Jan/early Feb also has been devoid of any especially severe cold snowy weather.. 2009, 2012 arrived in time for Feb. 2010 again last time we had a cold core peak winter period. 

Snowfall wise this winter has been every bit as woeful as our worst snowless winters such as 13/14, 16/17, 18/19, 19/20 and 21/22.. forgetting what snow looks like! Two dustings of a cm or two so far, still March I guess.

 

Edited February 20, 2023 by damianslaw

[North-Easterly Blast]

5 minutes ago, damianslaw said:

I'm hoping next winter can deliver its coldest conditions run up to Christmas - New Year, its been an age we've had a cold run into christmas, 2010 last time, all since have been mild/exceptionally mild. Late Jan/early Feb also has been devoid of any especially severe cold snowy weather.. 2009, 2012 arrived in time for Feb. 2010 again last time we had a cold core peak winter period. 

Snowfall wise this winter has been every bit as woeful as our worst snowless winters such as 13/14, 16/17, 18/19, 19/20 and 21/22.. forgetting what snow looks like! Two dustings of a cm or two so far, still March I guess.

 

Well the most notable feature is that we are long overdue a notably cold February.  We have not had a really cold one since 1991 - 32 years ago.  

We have not had a winter that was even below average at all by 1961-90 standards since 2012-13, so there has been far fewer cold outbreaks since then - so it can be said that many different parts of the winter season have lacked notable cold spells since then.

[CryoraptorA303]

44 minutes ago, damianslaw said:

I'm hoping next winter can deliver its coldest conditions run up to Christmas - New Year, its been an age we've had a cold run into christmas, 2010 last time, all since have been mild/exceptionally mild. Late Jan/early Feb also has been devoid of any especially severe cold snowy weather.. 2009, 2012 arrived in time for Feb. 2010 again last time we had a cold core peak winter period. 

Snowfall wise this winter has been every bit as woeful as our worst snowless winters such as 13/14, 16/17, 18/19, 19/20 and 21/22.. forgetting what snow looks like! Two dustings of a cm or two so far, still March I guess.

 

Next winter is provisionally looking to be mild-moderate Nino and easterly QBO, so it's favourable from the outset. Judging by historical records, it's about a 50/50 for a really nice cold spell, probably in December or January. The last time this setup happened was Winter 2009, which delivered the coldest spell of this century so far.

However nothing is guaranteed this far out and a hyper Nino like 2015 or +NAO can kill the winter fairly quickly, as can an unprecedented return to Nina by then which seems to have a lower incidence of cold spells.

At this point, next winter is probably not worth worrying about yet. We'll get there, but first we have to deal with this year's horrendous, dry, hot summer (I hope not). Although I agree that this winter is probably a write off and spring has likely begun.

[summer blizzard]

22 minutes ago, CryoraptorA303 said:

Next winter is provisionally looking to be mild-moderate Nino and easterly QBO, so it's favourable from the outset. Judging by historical records, it's about a 50/50 for a really nice cold spell, probably in December or January. The last time this setup happened was Winter 2009, which delivered the coldest spell of this century so far.

However nothing is guaranteed this far out and a hyper Nino like 2015 or +NAO can kill the winter fairly quickly, as can an unprecedented return to Nina by then which seems to have a lower incidence of cold spells.

At this point, next winter is probably not worth worrying about yet. We'll get there, but first we have to deal with this year's horrendous, dry, hot summer (I hope not). Although I agree that this winter is probably a write off and spring has likely begun.

Before we get too excited there are plenty of springs which lose Nina and fail to get the Nino going so I’d not get overly excited yet. Also, the winter of 2015 saw a weak Nino and -QBO combination.

 

[Ms Rock & Blues]

4 hours ago, East_England_Stormchaser91 said:

Whilst I’m excited. I’m also a bit annoyed that this is happening into March. Even if it was a month earlier, we could have seen so much more effect from the deep cold. We can’t take away the fact now that solar input is many fold stronger than it would’ve been only a month ago, as we near to the peak acceleration rate of solar insolation per day. As good as the BFTE was, and 2013, even they felt somewhat ‘wasted’ compared to what they would’ve delivered in say late January. 1987 and 1991 were pretty much perfectly timed events. 

I agree totally. If it were Jan / Feb we would ( possibly) be looking at deep snow that hangs around for days and when the weak sun appears makes it all beautiful for walking. However I'd rather March that not at all & then look forward to spring.

[Weather Enthusiast91]

1 hour ago, damianslaw said:

I'm hoping next winter can deliver its coldest conditions run up to Christmas - New Year, its been an age we've had a cold run into christmas, 2010 last time, all since have been mild/exceptionally mild. Late Jan/early Feb also has been devoid of any especially severe cold snowy weather.. 2009, 2012 arrived in time for Feb. 2010 again last time we had a cold core peak winter period. 

Snowfall wise this winter has been every bit as woeful as our worst snowless winters such as 13/14, 16/17, 18/19, 19/20 and 21/22.. forgetting what snow looks like! Two dustings of a cm or two so far, still March I guess.

 

I am personally hoping that next winter gives us a cold February as we surely must be due one now, much in the same way that we were due a warm sunny August. Despite peoples' expectations being skewed (thanks to so many mild Februaries in recent years), February is still a winter month. The last decent cold spell I can recall happening in February was in 2019, but even then it was only during the first half which was followed by a springlike second half. 

[CryoraptorA303]

5 minutes ago, summer blizzard said:

Before we get too excited there are plenty of springs which lose Nina and fail to get the Nino going so I’d not get overly excited yet. Also, the winter of 2015 saw a weak Nino and -QBO combination.

 

Of course, as I said going off historical data it's about a 50/50. Other signals can kill the winter dead.

2015 in particular was killed by +NAO, but the hyper Nino probably didn't help. Funnily enough summer 2015 was not especially extreme aside from that funky day when it reached 36.7c in London. The pattern I see with ENSO in Europe is Nina tends to lead to more schizophrenic summers and Nino leads to more stable summers, and something like vice versa in winter: long Ninas tend to end up with mild winters and Ninos increase the odds of cold spells, although sometimes other factors will kill the winter dead during Nino.

You are quite right, there is no guarantee of a Nino after Nina, however the forecasts seem to be widely agreeing on a moderate Nino by autumn, and a period this long without a notable Nino would be unprecedented: the 2015 Hyper Nino is the last significant Nino activity we've seen, after that it's been neutral or Nina aside from a short-ish period in late 2018-early 2019 which was an exceptionally weak Nino, followed by the triple Nina we've experienced since then. Yet another period without Nino would likely push the next Nino to late 2024 at the earliest, which is nearly a decade after the last real Nino activity. That would be an extreme scenario if it materialised. If we then somehow entered another Nina at that point, it's time to start seriously considering the possibility that we're heading towards a La Nina world with a permanent netural-to-Nina or straight up permanent Nina configuration, the effects of which are simply unknown at this point.

Having said all this, the worst European winters in recent memory, such as 62-63, 81-82 and 87 all happened during ENSO-neutral, so perhaps neutral is your best bet for a total wipeout winter. Although keep in mind 76, 03 (although that was going into Nino in autumn), and winter 2013-14 also happened in ENSO-neutral, so results may vary.

[BlueHedgehog074]

Probably varying where you are in the UK, but although maybe not a particularly stand out period, February 2010 was quite a cold one overall. There was a possibility of that February being even more memorable with a chance of very bitter Easterly winds, which didn’t quite happen. Still was, however, a chilly and, at times (especially in this part), wintry month. 

Due to this Winter lacking in snow, except for a few odd small dustings (so better than nothing), am kinda hoping for something wintry in March and also some mild, bright, sunny, Spring spells. Which, to be fair, it has felt quite Spring-like on and off throughout this February. A number of dry days with some sunshine at times. Today in particular felt pleasant in the sun. Even some of the daffodils have been recently flowering. Seems a little early this year. 

Edited February 20, 2023 by DiagonalRedLine
Adding bit more

[CryoraptorA303]

17 minutes ago, Weather Enthusiast91 said:

I am personally hoping that next winter gives us a cold February as we surely must be due one now, much in the same way that we were due a warm sunny August. Despite peoples' expectations being skewed (thanks to so many mild Februaries in recent years), February is still a winter month. The last decent cold spell I can recall happening in February was in 2019, but even then it was only during the first half which was followed by a springlike second half. 

Funnily enough, I can actually think of a few recent Februaries that had cold spells. 2012 had a notable cold snap in February, 2012-13 in general was a cold winter with several cold spells, one of which hit at the end of February. BFTE 2018 hit in late February-early March, and most recently, there was a short lived cold spell in February 2021.

February is a mixed bag. The oceans are at their coldest in late Feb-early March, so if you get the right pattern, you can have a really cold period in February. However, on the other side of the coin, insolation starts to reach October levels in February, so any remotely above-average spell is likely to escalate into a really mild period and potentially an early spring; although I would still consider this February to be unusually severe in how warm and dry it has been, and even earlier in January the mild spells were unusually warm.

The worst cold spells in this country tend to hit in December and January. February cold spells are almost always shorter lived when they happen - the only exception to this in my lifetime is probably the Feb 2012 cold snap, which as I mentioned before shoved most of Europe into the freezer for quite some time, and if my memory is correct, dumped a very notable amount of snow.

[BlueHedgehog074]

Even though it was fairly brief, I remember the first part of February 2012 delivering a pretty good dumping of snow here as a front from the West ran into some colder air further East. I think the further West you were, the more that the front was of rain (though there was a bit of back-edge light rain/drizzle from the front here. Mostly got away with it and ended up with around 10cm of wet snow).  

[CryoraptorA303]

5 minutes ago, DiagonalRedLine said:

Probably varying where you are in the UK, but although maybe not a particularly stand out period, February 2010 was quite a cold one overall. There was a possibility of that February being even more memorable with a chance of very bitter Easterly winds, which didn’t quite happen. Still was, however, a chilly and, at times (especially in this part), wintry month. 

Due to this Winter lacking in snow, except for a few odd small dustings (so better than nothing), am kinda hoping for something wintry in March and also some mild, bright, sunny, Spring spells. Which, to be fair, it has felt quite Spring-like on and off throughout this February. A number of dry days with some sunshine at times. Today in particular felt pleasant in the sun. Even some of the daffodils have been recently flowering. Seems a little early this year. 

I'm a lot further south and east than a lot of people on this thread (as I will be as I'm on the southeasternmost peninsula in the British archipelago), so my weather events are normally the most severe and extreme in the country. Here, it's been spring since the start of February, and even earlier in January before the average spell (I refuse to call that disappointment a cold spell) things were trying to bloom. The daffodils are coming out and the trees are starting to flower and green. Nature from my estimations is about a month ahead of where it should be. This will vary by location, as Kent does tend to have an earlier spring than many other places in the archipelago, but don't get it twisted, this heat wave we've had is unusually severe and spring starting this early isn't normal at all.

As I mentioned earlier, the precipitation in this month in the southeast has been a disaster; it has probably rained about twice or three times in the whole month, and it was very light and short-lived. Things that don't normally dry up until March and April are already drying up. If this pattern were happening in summer, it would be a severe heat wave. Hopefully the long term forecast is correct and spring trends wetter than average, otherwise this summer is going to be a tragedy even if the temperature extremes are not incredibly severe.

[CryoraptorA303]

2 minutes ago, DiagonalRedLine said:

Even though it was fairly brief, I remember the first part of February 2012 delivering a pretty good dumping of snow here as a front from the West ran into some colder air further East. I think the further West you were, the more that the front was of rain (though there was a bit of back-edge light rain/drizzle from the front here. Mostly got away with it and ended up with around 10cm of wet snow).  

This sounds about right; Kent tends to get more snow than other places in the south for about this reason, and of course because it's closest to the continent. Probably just about the only advantage of living in this county :p

[BlueHedgehog074]

3 minutes ago, CryoraptorA303 said:

I'm a lot further south and east than a lot of people on this thread (as I will be as I'm on the southeasternmost peninsula in the British archipelago), so my weather events are normally the most severe and extreme in the country. Here, it's been spring since the start of February, and even earlier in January before the average spell (I refuse to call that disappointment a cold spell) things were trying to bloom. The daffodils are coming out and the trees are starting to flower and green. Nature from my estimations is about a month ahead of where it should be. This will vary by location, as Kent does tend to have an earlier spring than many other places in the archipelago, but don't get it twisted, this heat wave we've had is unusually severe and spring starting this early isn't normal at all.

As I mentioned earlier, the precipitation in this month in the southeast has been a disaster; it has probably rained about twice or three times in the whole month, and it was very light and short-lived. Things that don't normally dry up until March and April are already drying up. If this pattern were happening in summer, it would be a severe heat wave. Hopefully the long term forecast is correct and spring trends wetter than average, otherwise this summer is going to be a tragedy even if the temperature extremes are not incredibly severe.

Yep, despite being somewhat further North and West, I can’t help but feel things feel further ahead that what would normally be the case at this time of year. Aside from first part of January being wet here, it’s been dry a lot of the time and I remember one or two others saying this month, especially, being one of the quietest Februaries they have ever experienced. So definitely quite unusual. The early start to Spring/Spring-like weather has been (for me) welcoming. I would have to agree there is going to be a lot of problems should the next few months or so be absent of much precipitation. I mean, I would love a dry(ish) Summer - the rain coming in the form of heavy thunderstorms to try making up for any drought conditions that occur. From a personal view, as interesting as it was, wouldn’t want a repeat of last Summer where it became a touch too hot and dry at times. 

[Daniel*]

36 minutes ago, CryoraptorA303 said:

I'm a lot further south and east than a lot of people on this thread (as I will be as I'm on the southeasternmost peninsula in the British archipelago), so my weather events are normally the most severe and extreme in the country. Here, it's been spring since the start of February, and even earlier in January before the average spell (I refuse to call that disappointment a cold spell) things were trying to bloom. The daffodils are coming out and the trees are starting to flower and green. Nature from my estimations is about a month ahead of where it should be. This will vary by location, as Kent does tend to have an earlier spring than many other places in the archipelago, but don't get it twisted, this heat wave we've had is unusually severe and spring starting this early isn't normal at all.

As I mentioned earlier, the precipitation in this month in the southeast has been a disaster; it has probably rained about twice or three times in the whole month, and it was very light and short-lived. Things that don't normally dry up until March and April are already drying up. If this pattern were happening in summer, it would be a severe heat wave. Hopefully the long term forecast is correct and spring trends wetter than average, otherwise this summer is going to be a tragedy even if the temperature extremes are not incredibly severe.

Heatwave? 14c is hardly a heatwave think what’s been more notable is very mild nights. Thinks appear to be running quite normal in my part of London. The daffs are not out.

Edited February 21, 2023 by Daniel*

[CryoraptorA303]

8 minutes ago, DiagonalRedLine said:

Yep, despite being somewhat further North and West, I can’t help but feel things feel further ahead that what would normally be the case at this time of year. Aside from first part of January being wet here, it’s been dry a lot of the time and I remember one or two others saying this month, especially, being one of the quietest Februaries they have ever experienced. So definitely quite unusual. The early start to Spring/Spring-like weather has been (for me) welcoming. I would have to agree there is going to be a lot of problems should the next few months or so be absent of much precipitation. I mean, I would love a dry(ish) Summer - the rain coming in the form of heavy thunderstorms to try making up for any drought conditions that occur. From a personal view, as interesting as it was, wouldn’t want a repeat of last Summer where it became a touch too hot and dry at times. 

Yeah. Of course, February is approaching the start of the Atlantic dry season, so you would expect it to start drying up a little bit from January - But this is just ridiculous. As you point out, even the end of January was unusually dry.

The main problem with a bone dry period this soon after Summer 2022 is a lot of the Atlantic carpet bombing from October-November and in January 1. fell in the west and missed us quite a lot, and 2. instantly waterlogged and flooded the shriveled up ground, so not much of it sticks as groundwater at all. With a bone dry period this early in the year, the little water that does stick as groundwater is already evaporating. Continue the dry period into the spring and bam, the moment you have a heatwave in summer we're in a drought again. Rinse and repeat until the wildlife is completely out of commission.

Late Dec-early January was wet here, as it was everywhere, but honestly? Not overwhelmingly. The west coast took the brunt of it and by the time it got to us, it was mostly just consecutive days of moderate rain. Above average for sure, but not as severe as the flooding was in Autumn 2019 and Winter 2020. Then in late January that average spell dried everything out again. In the last couple of years it seems like the west has been taking an unreasonable amount of the Atlantic bombing and leaving us with less than usual for wet periods, so we aren't really recovering from the severely dry summers that are oh so common these days.

Last summer was a complete nightmare for us. We had next to no rain from May until later on in September (and there was yet another dry period in there before the autumn Atlantic bombing campaign) and the daily highs were ridiculous. Where I am peaked at about 38c on the fateful day July 19th, perhaps locally 39c as I'm in a valley and further downhill from the nearby weather stations, but what made it truly severe was the average high. High 20s for an unreasonably long time, with very few breaks back down any lower than 24c, and of course there was that August heatwave which took the south above 32c for a week again. I'm not eager for a repeat of that again anytime soon.

However I have a high chance of not being in luck, as this year is so far showing a striking resemblance to 76: Coming down from triple Nina into ENSO-neutral, dry, mild start to the year. Let's not forget that 76 was precipitated by an unusually dry winter and spring period before the actual severe temperatures hit. The difference being, 76 was 50 years ago and the climate is warmer than back then. Adjust 76 for today's extremes and it's an absolute tragedy, especially if its just after last summer. Even if it doesn't break the record, it still has the potential to be extremely hot and dry for a long time. I sincerely hope the long term forecast is correct, otherwise this year has the potential to be a complete disaster.

[CryoraptorA303]

13 minutes ago, Daniel* said:

Heatwave? 14c is hardly a heatwave think what’s been more notable is very mild nights. Thinks appear to be running quite normal in my part of London. The daffs are not out.

It's not necessarily the temperatures themselves, its how long its been this warm. For February standards, this is a severe heatwave. And I neglected to mention the mild nights, that is also a reflection of how severe this event is.

Rotherhithe in Inner London is not a good reflection of the normal climate, you have urban heat island effect. Here the temperature is the same if not higher than you consistently, and our daffs are coming out.

[Daniel*]

10 minutes ago, CryoraptorA303 said:

It's not necessarily the temperatures themselves, its how long its been this warm. For February standards, this is a severe heatwave. And I neglected to mention the mild nights, that is also a reflection of how severe this event is.

Rotherhithe in Inner London is not a good reflection of the normal climate, you have urban heat island effect. Here the temperature is the same if not higher than you consistently, and our daffs are coming out.

There are earlier varieties. And that’s nonsense. Temps anomalies are +1.5-2C in Kent. Nothing extreme. This warm anomaly will reduce soon. The month will likely finish within 1C of average.

 

Edited February 21, 2023 by Daniel*

[CryoraptorA303]

1 minute ago, Daniel* said:

There are earlier varieties. And that’s nonsense. Temps anomalies are +1.5-2C in Kent. Nothing extreme. This warm anomaly will reduce soon.

 

A warm anomaly that has been around for three weeks... right. Definitely reducing soon.

The only reason it's "reducing" is because the average temperature for the time of year is actively rising to match it as we move into March. The average high in Kent in February is 7.4c while the average high in March is 10.3c. Hmm I wonder why the anomaly is dropping without the actual temperature dropping. Could it be that the whole of February has been in a heatwave with temperatures that are warm even for the first half of March? 

[Daniel*]

5 minutes ago, CryoraptorA303 said:

A warm anomaly that has been around for three weeks... right. Definitely reducing soon.

The only reason it's "reducing" is because the average temperature for the time of year is actively rising to match it as we move into March. The average high in Kent in February is 7.4c while the average high in March is 10.3c. Hmm I wonder why the anomaly is dropping without the actual temperature dropping. Could it be that the whole of February has been in a heatwave with temperatures that are warm even for the first half of March? 

I have my own weather station you’re dead wrong it’s been very mild the whole last 3 weeks. We had a run of frosts and near normal temperatures for a week. The anomaly has only jumped up recently. Also average Feb high in Kent is not 7.4C maybe that is an older baseline in London it is 9C I don’t believe it would be that much cooler. Modern Februaries are not that cold anymore. 

Edited February 21, 2023 by Daniel*

[lassie23]

This winter has been one long bore.

[Weather-history]

It will be interesting to see the pressure anomaly chart for this month and  how anticyclonic it has been against past Februarys and other past anticyclonic dominated months

Edited February 21, 2023 by Weather-history

[snowspotter]

Bearing in mind we are currently at +2:85c above February average I find it strange that people on the model thread are expecting some miracle from the SSW. Everytime I look on there there seems to be more and more data posted from different sources (dare I say overkill) yet the same end result is something may happen in 16 days time . And this gets shunted down the line . I think people need to get realistic on this winter . It’s done . People should be looking for spring now . We had a decent cold spell December and that was it . The met office outlook doesn’t even suggest anything other than ‘colder than average ‘ for march . Not bitterly cold . I really don’t get the hyperbole on the model thread . It’s never been the same since the top posters have left or been banned . I just glance at it now as quite frankly a lot of fragile egos on there as soon as you comment something they don’t agree with . I guess that’s social media and keyboard warriors for you 

[stainesbloke]

[ANYWEATHER]

11 minutes ago, markw2680 said:

Is it just me or are the really good charts at day 10 all the time lol. As soon as they get inside day 10 the closer they get the more watered down they become.

for me personally if we are not going to get snow I’d much rather a decent spring now than cold 6 degrees crap tbh.

yes with the ssw things are still up in the air and could go either way but still find it pointless in getting excited at day 10 charts unless you like a rather large garden path unfortunately.

give me a southerly wind sun and 18c now

I think we can put away the speculation,  hopecasting, etc, there ain't no deep cold Easterly, even in FI, not saying it won't get colder to average at some point in March, but I think Spring is going to steal the headlines as we enter into March, already has done here. Hoping for a pattern change too as March progresses, I think it could well be that March goes out like a lion! I think it's about time we put the Winter baby to bed now, time is ticking quickly ......☺