Winter 2022/23 - Moans, Ramps & Chat

[RJBingham]

In the past it has snowed in March, April, May and June, this information in no way  predicts what will happen in the upcoming months 

[Bricriu]

1 hour ago, January Snowstorm said:

For me the difference between first few days of March and mid month are huge! Perhaps because our National holiday falls on 17th I have decades of memories of this day and not one of them was noteworthy of disruptive or even lying snow. Snow in mid March will melt in 10mins no matter how cold the uppers are

Re 2018, a special event that coincided with 26th Feb to 2nd March. Copious snow that year that in my view would not have layed in mid March!

I still feel things will nudge forward over the next few days & it needs to. We have one bite at this, and whether the vortex recovers or not is irrelevant, Spring will take hold mid month onwards

There was two snow storms in April during the 20th century that had, according to accounts of the events, snow on the ground for a few days. 

Edited February 16, 2023 by Bricriu

[Relativistic]

2 hours ago, January Snowstorm said:

For me the difference between first few days of March and mid month are huge! Perhaps because our National holiday falls on 17th I have decades of memories of this day and not one of them was noteworthy of disruptive or even lying snow. Snow in mid March will melt in 10mins no matter how cold the uppers are

Re 2018, a special event that coincided with 26th Feb to 2nd March. Copious snow that year that in my view would not have layed in mid March!

I still feel things will nudge forward over the next few days & it needs to. We have one bite at this, and whether the vortex recovers or not is irrelevant, Spring will take hold mid month onwards

Had nearly a week of lying snow after the solstice in March 2013 down in Essex.

[*Stormforce~beka*]

2 hours ago, matt111 said:

I don't mind cold weather in early March as long as it actually delivers something worthwhile, which It certainly can do as the last proper snowfall I saw was in March 2018. Don't want it hanging on too long though, especially into the latter part of the month.

Hmmm beggers can't choosers and all that. I woudl take it. But I dont want it

[knocker]

It remains a complete mystery why so many, quite correctly, say that it is very dangerous to assume the affects in the trop. of a SSW, and then go on to do so, repeatable. Although after further thought perhaps it isn't.

[andymusic]

8 hours ago, Catacol said:

I have photographs of deep lying snow in Somerset on March 18 2018. It is quite simply not true that snow cannot lie in mid March. Ideally, however, the weather stays cloudy obviously….

Totally agree - If the 850s are freezing enough aloft then the surface cold no matter when that might be mid flippin March/April Easter (more likely to have snow at easter than xmas) etc will promote the right conditions to hold any fallen snow on the ground. Admittedly the sun's influence is slightly stronger but if those siberian easterlies kick or the Artic north easterlies also kick then we are possibly in for a double whammy of FREEZING COLD SNOWY DUMPINGS - SSW tech led reversal!

[Weather-history]

On 25/01/2023 at 07:20, Weather-history said:

 

No doubt come near Easter that old chestnut "more likely to see snow at Easter than Christmas" will be trotted out again but for my area and stats going back to 1985, its just not true.

Since 1985

White Christmases: 1993, 1995, 1999, 2000, 2004, 2020

White Easters (Easter Day): 1998, 2008

Lying snow on Christmas Day: 1995, 2004, 2009, 2010

Lying snow on Easter Day: 0

Snow falling during Christmas period (24th-26th):  1993, 1995, 1999, 2000, 2001, 2004, 2014, 2020

Lying snow during Christmas period (24th-26th): 1995, 2004, 2009, 2010, 2014

Falling snow during Easter period (Good Friday-Easter Monday): 1994, 1998, 2008

Lying snow during Easter period (Good Friday-Easter Monday): 1998 (evening of Easter Monday)

Although the stats only go back to 1985, Christmas is clearly ahead of Easter in the snow stakes, so I can extend further back into time with confidence and still say Christmas is ahead of Easter as regards to snow. In the last 50 years, there have been more White Christmas than White Easters, I can say with great confidence. 

 

And it has and with  7 weeks till Easter I think

[Chesil View]

9 hours ago, January Snowstorm said:

For me the difference between first few days of March and mid month are huge! Perhaps because our National holiday falls on 17th I have decades of memories of this day and not one of them was noteworthy of disruptive or even lying snow. Snow in mid March will melt in 10mins no matter how cold the uppers are

Re 2018, a special event that coincided with 26th Feb to 2nd March. Copious snow that year that in my view would not have layed in mid March!

I still feel things will nudge forward over the next few days & it needs to. We have one bite at this, and whether the vortex recovers or not is irrelevant, Spring will take hold mid month onwards

 

9 hours ago, January Snowstorm said:

For me the difference between first few days of March and mid month are huge! Perhaps because our National holiday falls on 17th I have decades of memories of this day and not one of them was noteworthy of disruptive or even lying snow. Snow in mid March will melt in 10mins no matter how cold the uppers are

Re 2018, a special event that coincided with 26th Feb to 2nd March. Copious snow that year that in my view would not have layed in mid March!

I still feel things will nudge forward over the next few days & it needs to. We have one bite at this, and whether the vortex recovers or not is irrelevant, Spring will take hold mid month onwards

March 18th 2018 South Coast of England.

Strip out December 2010 from my weather station records and March has been the snowiest month of the last 15 years at my  location.

[Neil Harris]

10 hours ago, Catacol said:

I have photographs of deep lying snow in Somerset on March 18 2018. It is quite simply not true that snow cannot lie in mid March. Ideally, however, the weather stays cloudy obviously….

What about March 2013, which ran into an early Easter? From memory snow lingered for a few days, if not a couple of weeks.

[Tn9]

1 hour ago, Chesil View said:

 

March 18th 2018 South Coast of England.

Strip out December 2010 from my weather station records and March has been the snowiest month of the last 15 years at my  location.

Exception to the rule was  2018 ,which if you analyse it is a paradox ,because there can't can't be any rule, can there ,no exeptions ,but yea what a  cracker 

[Weather Enthusiast91]

February is once again ending up being more like a spring month. Our seasons have certainly shifted.

[S Bragg]

2 hours ago, Weather Enthusiast91 said:

February is once again ending up being more like a spring month. Our seasons have certainly shifted.

I was thinking the same thing.  It's really mild out there at the moment and looks set to remain so for the next few days.  

[alexisj9]

11 minutes ago, MATT TATTOO said:

I think you'll find me and a fair few others are more than prepared for it,and are actually willing it to happen. 

I've become fed up with records being broken for Heat...let's break some cold records and have something for the Archives.

Massive Met update coming up! The coffee is being smelt...the aroma is strong...its not Asdas own cheap decaff...but full blown Nescafe gold

I'm glad that you are fully equipped to cope with extreme continental cold, here in the UK, that chart is colder than 2018. And most won't cope. 

I was talking about the right type of clothing, etc. I don't think I know anyone who is prepared. I'm a coldy my self.

[Weather Enthusiast91]

10 minutes ago, S Bragg said:

I was thinking the same thing.  It's really mild out there at the moment and looks set to remain so for the next few days.  

I went out for a walk earlier on, and made the mistake of wearing a winter coat. Needless to say I ended up regretting it.

[matt111]

It does feel mild here but there’s quite a strong breeze which is taking the edge off it a bit. It did mean I didn’t regret taking my winter coat as with the breeze I certainly needed it. 

Edited February 17, 2023 by matt111

[Freeze]

Same here matt, areas in the midlands having 15c+ and sun while here it's a chilly 10c grey and windy with spits of drizzle in the air.

[Mapantz]

14 minutes ago, Freeze said:

Same here matt, areas in the midlands having 15c+ and sun while here it's a chilly 10c grey and windy with spits of drizzle in the air.

I've been stuck inside decorating for quite some time, it makes me feel better knowing it's cloudy and meh outside.

[mushymanrob]

30 minutes ago, Cold Winter Night said:

I wouldn't say that March 2013 was the "main event" following that January 6th SSW.
Mid January 2013 was very cold. Here in Holland, De Bilt counted no less than 12 ice days in a row from the 14th to the 25th, several with snow falling as well. I had a 9 cm snow cover on the 21st.
If indeed that was the result of a QTR impact, that would have been the main event, in my opinion.

 

 

21 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

But it didn’t!  The ‘main event’ occurred almost straight away in mid January!  That effects rumbled on into March is true, but the initial downwelling was very fast.

 

Well obviously im talking from a UK point of view CWN...

Well i guess it depends upon what you classify as "the main event" ....

CET January 2013 = 3.5c, position 183/364
CET February 2013 = 3.2, position 123/364
CET March 2013 = 0.8 Position 14/364

January cold spell lasted 10th - 25th
February cold spell lasted 21st - 26th
March cold spell lasted March 10th - April 11th (apart from 4 days - and some Western areas didnt get the full cold as much as other eastern/northern areas did on all occassions)

As i see it, the March 2013 event was the longest and most severe, we had snowdrifts here blocking roads...IN DERBY (outskirts) - to me THATS the main event, we remember March not January.

But again, my point is simply that the affects of this SSW may not be manifest for some time... do we not all agree on that?

[Freeze]

1 hour ago, Mapantz said:

I've been stuck inside decorating for quite some time, it makes me feel better knowing it's cloudy and meh outside.

I'm stuck at work until midnight so I too am OK with it being meh.

[Mike Poole]

5 minutes ago, mushymanrob said:

As i see it, the March 2013 event was the longest and most severe, we had snowdrifts here blocking roads...IN DERBY (outskirts) - to me THATS the main event, we remember March not January.

But again, my point is simply that the affects of this SSW may not be manifest for some time... do we not all agree on that?

I guess there’s some IMBYism there.  I know March 2013 was epic further north, but down south we had some snow, yes, but it melted very quickly!  January was far more memorable here!

I think we can agree that the effects of a SSW may continue to manifest for some time, but to invoke 2013 as evidence the first manifestation may take 2 months is pushing it, in my opinion.  Anyway, let’s return to the here and now…

[mushymanrob]

35 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

I guess there’s some IMBYism there.  I know March 2013 was epic further north, but down south we had some snow, yes, but it melted very quickly!  January was far more memorable here!

I think we can agree that the effects of a SSW may continue to manifest for some time, but to invoke 2013 as evidence the first manifestation may take 2 months is pushing it, in my opinion.  Anyway, let’s return to the here and now…

Ahh .. ive just read what i posted (hurriedly) and i can see where the impression came from that i suggested it took 63 days for the "first" impact... i knew in my head what i was thinking, but worded it badly...

Viewing the 2013 charts alot of the time the Country was divided, according to Bonacina the Midland had 20 days lying snow in March... but the South and west often missed out.

[North-Easterly Blast]

1 hour ago, mushymanrob said:

 

Well obviously im talking from a UK point of view CWN...

Well i guess it depends upon what you classify as "the main event" ....

CET January 2013 = 3.5c, position 183/364
CET February 2013 = 3.2, position 123/364
CET March 2013 = 0.8 Position 14/364

January cold spell lasted 10th - 25th
February cold spell lasted 21st - 26th
March cold spell lasted March 10th - April 11th (apart from 4 days - and some Western areas didnt get the full cold as much as other eastern/northern areas did on all occassions)

As i see it, the March 2013 event was the longest and most severe, we had snowdrifts here blocking roads...IN DERBY (outskirts) - to me THATS the main event, we remember March not January.

But again, my point is simply that the affects of this SSW may not be manifest for some time... do we not all agree on that?

March 2013 had a CET of 2.7 on legacy, but Cv2 revised it upwards to 2.8.

January 2013 is one of those months where the overall CET does not tell you accurately about the sort of weather that the UK experienced during the month.  It contained a two week significant cold spell from the 10th to 25th where the CET was -0.1 for 16 days, but the CET up to the 8th was 8.0, so it had a very mild first eight days, and then it turned milder late on in the month, so it was a case of where despite it having a 16 day significant cold spell, the month's overall CET actually didn't end up particularly cold in the end.

February 2013 was one of those months that was generally cold for most of the month, with little in the way of mild weather, but did not really have a big freeze.

Edited February 17, 2023 by North-Easterly Blast

[*Stormforce~beka*]

3 hours ago, matt111 said:

It does feel mild here but there’s quite a strong breeze which is taking the edge off it a bit. It did mean I didn’t regret taking my winter coat as with the breeze I certainly needed it. 

Wore my down coat to Basingstoke. Was indoors most of the time and I was ok

[LRD]

11 hours ago, Weather-history said:

And it has and with  7 weeks till Easter I think

Spot on. Every year, from about late Feb (but EVEN earlier this year), the nonsense about snow being more common at Easter than Xmas is constantly rolled out

You gave the stats to disprove that old chestnut but people will still say it!

[Catbrainz]

Somehow it is raining here at a pressure of 1025ish. Even in a UK winter that seems odd that you'd get rain at this relatively high pressure.