Winter 2022/23 - Moans, Ramps & Chat

[Methuselah]

9 minutes ago, Mark Parsons said:

The MAD thread is in full swing regarding next week with the potential snow! It is often a frustrating read lol......The best snow events are often short lived, and they can occur several times, there doesn't need to be deep cold for lots of snow, however that doesn't seem to float some of their boats on there

I think I'll take out the 'possibly'... the hyperventilating is getting out of control!

[Mark Parsons]

3 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

I think I'll take out the 'possibly'... the hyperventilating is getting out of control!

[I remember Atlantic 252]

5 hours ago, Ed Stone said:

A lot of things can still go wrong with next week's possibly over-hyped snow fest... And should that indeed turn out to be the case, I wonder if the 'cause' will be: an unexpected coronal mass ejection, or the GFS leading everyone 'up the garden path'?

definitely think so, to me this looks like normal 'large teapot' setup, 3 coolish days with snow for high ground in the north, then back to double digits again south, with probably a thaw even in north

[RJBingham]

It's gone very quiet ,

 

 

[damianslaw]

Ok time for a rare moan from me - don't usually, but the constant wet dull weather since 18 December, and predominantly mild weather to boot, bar a brief interlude such as 2 January is now getting to me.. 

[cheeky_monkey]

been horribly flat with a thick smog..not fog but smog which has the air quality index at an 11 in some parts of the city..which is as bad as it gets even when we have had smoke envelope the city from forest fires in the summer..very unusual conditions for January 

[Don]

1 hour ago, RJBingham said:

It's gone very quiet ,

 

 

What the sun?!! 

7 hours ago, Ed Stone said:

A lot of things can still go wrong with next week's possibly over-hyped snow fest... And should that indeed turn out to be the case, I wonder if the 'cause' will be: an unexpected coronal mass ejection, or the GFS leading everyone 'up the garden path'?

Or a butterfly farting in India?! 

[Cheshire Freeze]

Even the best output looks very marginal next week. Could be a fair bit of snow on hilly areas and very little where 80% of people live.

Cold and wet instead of mild and wet isn't really an improvement.

[Don]

Just now, CreweCold said:

Even the best output looks very marginal next week. Could be a fair bit of snow on hilly areas and very little where 80% of people live.

Cold and wet instead of mild and wet isn't really an improvement.

One of those setups that could have delivered for many 20 or 30 years ago?

[moorlander]

2 hours ago, damianslaw said:

Ok time for a rare moan from me - don't usually, but the constant wet dull weather since 18 December, and predominantly mild weather to boot, bar a brief interlude such as 2 January is now getting to me.. 

I always come to the lake district in Jan. 

I go home Friday and it's been pants it really has. If I had webbed feet I'd be over the moon.

[matt111]

It's not the most exciting but something slightly interesting tonight in that I can hear the roar of the wind. Not something I've heard a lot this winter.

[Cheshire Freeze]

Winter getting you down? 

Don't fear spring will soon be here...oh, wait. GLOSEA and CFS on same page with Scandi trough into mid-late spring

[KTtom]

Be interesting to see how Nick S latest post goes down in the other thread...I posted something similar yeaterday in relation to snow being reserved to higher ground in the south, no reactions apart from a stroppy reply accusing me of being a moaner! Me, moaning ?! 

[RJBingham]

9 minutes ago, KTtom said:

Be interesting to see how Nick S latest post goes down in the other thread...I posted something similar yeaterday in relation to snow being reserved to higher ground in the south, no reactions apart from a stroppy reply accusing me of being a moaner! Me, moaning ?! 

If past history is a guide, it will be , pretend it never happened, or petulance.

[Weather-history]

11 minutes ago, KTtom said:

Be interesting to see how Nick S latest post goes down in the other thread...I posted something similar yeaterday in relation to snow being reserved to higher ground in the south, no reactions apart from a stroppy reply accusing me of being a moaner! Me, moaning ?! 

Could be one of those scenarios where people and forecasters are caught out as happened on the 6th January 1994, we'll have to wait and see. 

[Weather-history]

30 minutes ago, Weather-history said:

Could be one of those scenarios where people and forecasters are caught out as happened on the 6th January 1994, we'll have to wait and see. 

 

[cobbett]

The ground is so sodden and flooded round here any snow which may appear next week will be next to useless if you want anything settling and with an avg temp of around 4/5c - forget it.

Next stop Feb

[Methuselah]

I've already lost count of just how many 'incoming snow events' there will be next week... I guess the GFS has been rehabilitated too... A scent of arabica is in the air?

[kold weather]

4 hours ago, cobbett said:

The ground is so sodden and flooded round here any snow which may appear next week will be next to useless if you want anything settling and with an avg temp of around 4/5c - forget it.

Next stop Feb

Depends, I've seen snow settle on basically flooded socks before. If it gets enough when snowing it will settle and surprisingly quickly.

If its snowing, you can also guess that unless it's it's real heavy convective shower air temperatures will be much lower than 4-5.

[A Face like Thunder]

8 hours ago, CreweCold said:

Winter getting you down? 

Don't fear spring will soon be here...oh, wait. GLOSEA and CFS on same page with Scandi trough into mid-late spring

It's already here in Crewe!

[johncam]

Latest Met update crap for me , will get a few frosts then back to mild crap , SE may at leat turn dryer and brighter , wish I had moved to bloody Canada when I had the chance 30 years ago  

[joggs]

9 minutes ago, johncam said:

Latest Met update crap for me , will get a few frosts then back to mild crap , SE may at leat turn dryer and brighter , wish I had moved to bloody Canada when I had the chance 30 years ago  

Yes,high sinking with too much energy to the north as per norm.

[kold weather]

With todays rain I'm now above the monthly average here, and this will likely be the wettest period since the mid June-mid July 2021 spell relative to average.

After tomorrows rain it does look considerably drier here, we don't tend to get too much rain on a NW type wind (I can recall 2 snow events from a NW flow here) during winter, though of course the odd front coming down is always possible. Either way we are almost certain to see the current extreme to date average finally start to come down from the 225% above average we are at currently.

Still even with the drying trend, we are still 100% going to be above average now.

[Summer8906]

12 hours ago, CreweCold said:

Winter getting you down? 

Don't fear spring will soon be here...oh, wait. GLOSEA and CFS on same page with Scandi trough into mid-late spring

Not so bad, temp below average over Scandinavia and slightly above here. Cool but dry - arguably just what we need in March and April, though I note that time period (AMJ) also includes early summer when it should be turning warmer.

Edited January 12, 2023 by Summer8906

[Summer8906]

1 hour ago, kold weather said:

With todays rain I'm now above the monthly average here, and this will likely be the wettest period since the mid June-mid July 2021 spell relative to average.

After tomorrows rain it does look considerably drier here, we don't tend to get too much rain on a NW type wind (I can recall 2 snow events from a NW flow here) during winter, though of course the odd front coming down is always possible. Either way we are almost certain to see the current extreme to date average finally start to come down from the 225% above average we are at currently.

Still even with the drying trend, we are still 100% going to be above average now.

I suppose the question is what happens after the possible cold/snow early next week?

Seems to be quite a bit of uncertainty on that, will we keep cool and dry or will it turn mild and very wet again?

Certainly seems almost reminiscent of 2014 thus far, if it keeps up towards the end of the month then we are going to seriously rival that year.