Model Output Discussion - the cold has arrived

[MJB]

ECM 240 ...........yes FI but brilliant chart 

[ICE COLD]

Got to love it . The cold spell to continue until at least March

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

3 minutes ago, geordiekev said:

Did someone order a reload? 

Yesterday’s?

 

 

BFTP

[feb1991blizzard]

6 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

More drama ! We now need another favour from the ECM for day 10.

Needs to eject a shortwave se from the main upstream troughing .

The two highs the Greenland one and the one over Spain mustn’t make First Contact .

We need lower heights between the two.

it did! just about - not sure whether to place any faith in it though, given it was close to busting at least twice during the run. whether to place any faith in it t

 

 

Edited December 9, 2022 by feb1991blizzard

[chris55]

15 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

Whoop , get in. This will be a nice twist

This looks totally feasible to me. 
 

I was thinking two roads to continued cold earlier, one being the Atlantic ridge (ahead of the Atlantic low) reinforcing heights towards Greenland . As above

[SqueakheartLW]

Just now, ICE COLD said:

Got to love it . The cold spell to continue until at least March

Another 1962/63 repeat, only with an even colder December than that year

[I remember Atlantic 252]

2 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

As you ordered, so ECM delivers:

Aye, very good angle, miles better than GFS 12Z, talking about deep FI here, but great EC

[TSNWK]

@nick sussex if we all chip a few quid can you come back again please for the next set of runs.. 

@nick sussex if we all chip a few quid can you come back again please for the next set of runs.. 

[geordiekev]

Didn't @CreweCold suggest a Manx (fidget spinner) looking set up a couple of days ago. Looks very similar

Edited December 9, 2022 by geordiekev

[fromey]

1 minute ago, MATTWOLVES said:

Get in there me son.

Anyone noticing how fantasy Island is now becoming a term for chasing the mild and not the cold.

Let the tables turn I say..

Could we get a link up with the pacific and the greenland high?? 

[sheikhy]

Well this looks very ec46 to me!!signs were there between 192 and 240 hours of disruption in the atlantic on the gfs aswell!!eyes down for the 18z!!!

[chris55]

So part of the Trop PV moves across the globe from east to west, with another cross polar flow setting up on EC 240….

December 2022 going down in the history books at this rate!

Edited December 9, 2022 by chris55

[Skullzrulerz]

3 minutes ago, sheikhy said:

Well this looks very ec46 to me!!signs were there between 192 and 240 hours of disruption in the atlantic on the gfs aswell!!eyes down for the 18z!!!

We can only hope! I don't think it will be the most likely outcome though! 

Let's see what happens! 

Edited December 9, 2022 by Skullzrulerz

[Cymro]

12 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

More drama ! We now need another favour from the ECM for day 10.

Needs to eject a shortwave se from the main upstream troughing .

The two highs the Greenland one and the one over Spain mustn’t make First Contact .

We need lower heights between the two.

Can we all just sit back and appreciate Nick's continously insightful commentary on the models? 

I must say I absolutely enjoy reading your summary on what's needed rather than what's shown it's invaluable when trying to learn how to read the charts. 

Thanks Nick

Edited December 9, 2022 by Cymro

[ItNeverSnowsInWindsor]

Need to get them gaps filled fairly pronto!!

[Captain Shortwave]

The cold spell according to the ECM

 

In fairness at the moment there are a couple of GFS ensembles that get close to this, but it is only a couple and even then the ECM op eclipses them with that Atlantic/Alaskan ridge double team to bring a return to colder weather.

[SqueakheartLW]

1 minute ago, chris55 said:

So part of the Trop PV moves across the globe from east to west, with another cross polar flow setting up on EC 240….

December 2022 going down in the history books at this rate!

Definitely seeing a strong EP La Nina signal there with that Pacific ridge pushing into the pole. Maybe this winter will be the one. Could also be influence from the cold stratosphere in the southern hemisphere too.

[blizzard81]

9 minutes ago, MJB said:

ECM 240 ...........yes FI but brilliant chart 

That really is one epic stonking chart. I was going to mention a particular year..... But I won't lol

[Cheshire Freeze]

EC locks in the cold really. If the scales tip that way then, well…

[blizzard81]

11 minutes ago, SqueakheartLW said:

Another 1962/63 repeat, only with an even colder December than that year

Records are meant to be broken. 

[alexisj9]

13 minutes ago, IanT said:

So…. Forecaster Nick is forecasting the forecast, and you are commenting upon his ability to predict what the predictive model is predicting?

 

Just making sure I’m keeping up here!

That's about right lol, he's even got it right .

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

Just looked at the GFS Control….for me it’s very feasible as is the ECM.  I’m liking what I see and I think traction will be gained over coming days ahead….plenty of days of runs as we are talking FI…so let’s see where we are come next week………I’m intrigued by the timing here….

 

 BFTP

Edited December 9, 2022 by BLAST FROM THE PAST

[alexisj9]

16 minutes ago, ICE COLD said:

Got to love it . The cold spell to continue until at least March

If only lol, that's not very likely, although if we are lucky it could be a cold winter full of reloads. It'll stop at some point.

[Mike Poole]

JMA rather lost the plot earlier in the run, but its worth posting the T264 as it has turned the vortex into a pram!

After the ECM, we probably won’t be throwing toys out of it!  Not today, anyway.

[northwestsnow]

EC det is superb.

Fingers crossed its on the ball..