Model Output Discussion - the cold has arrived

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

4 minutes ago, Bats32 said:

Petagna on Twitter suggesting it's going to get milder next weekend, says the EC 12z OP is a clear outlier.

It might, probably will, from what baseline…and what happens after?  So much uncertainty 

 

BFTP

[Malarky]

1 minute ago, BLAST FROM THE PAST said:

 

Good Heavens!!!  
 

BFTP

Only 4 days to go!

[MattStoke]

Just now, BLAST FROM THE PAST said:

It might, probably will, from what baseline…and what happens after?  So much uncertainty 

 

BFTP

He actually said there’s a trend in the models for milder conditions to return then but it’s uncertain and can change given that it’s 8 days away.

[snowbob]

4 minutes ago, BLAST FROM THE PAST said:

It might, probably will, from what baseline…and what happens after?  So much uncertainty 

 

BFTP

Love that response reminds me of what Willy wonka  might say

 

 

Edited December 9, 2022 by snowbob

[Gowon]

ICON gives the south of good dumping on Tuesday..

[matt111]

6 minutes ago, Bats32 said:

Petagna on Twitter suggesting it's going to get milder next weekend, says the EC OP is a clear outlier.

Not exactly what he said. He just said the models were showing a potential return to milder conditions but could still change with how far out it is, which mirrors what I've been reading in here all day. 

I've posted the tweet here 

 

[Bats32]

Just now, matt111 said:

Not exactly what he said. He just said the models were showing a potential return to milder conditions but could still change with how far out it is, which mirrors what I've been reading in here all day. 

I've posted the tweet here 

 

He replied to a comment that the EC OP was a clear outlier. Doesn't seem as enthusiastic as us for continued cold!

[GSP]

2 minutes ago, Gowon said:

ICON gives the south of good dumping on Tuesday..

Just Great!! I hope it clears it up!

[bluearmy]

well technically Marco is correct about the op 

[matt111]

Just now, Bats32 said:

He replied to a comment that the EC OP was a clear outlier. Doesn't seem as enthusiastic as us for continued cold!

Yes he did say that, although of course we've had outliers in the other direction regularly lately too so I wouldn't say it's anything to get too disheartened about, especially this far out. 

[Battleground Snow]

1 minute ago, Bats32 said:

He replied to a comment that the EC OP was a clear outlier. Doesn't seem as enthusiastic as us for continued cold!

Quite a few of ecm ensembles have similar profiles. 2 examples attached 

[Bats32]

Just now, Battleground Snow said:

Quite a few of ecm ensembles have similar profiles. 2 examples attached 

Not to get Off Topic but it's Exeter too, they'll hedge their bets until it's tied down.

[TSNWK]

I guess as much as ecm cheered us coldies up the reality is likely to be milder from next week as per 500 day 8 to 14 anniomy plots.. ?

 

[Battleground Snow]

I think it's quite common knowledge, but you can see all 50 runs on wetterzentrale including the extended period for the ecm

[Mike Poole]

Nice little south of the M4 snow event on Tuesday night from the ICON:

This from the tropical storm that wasn’t - seems to threaten the south of the UK on some runs if the low splits and the forward part heads NE, T99:

[Skullzrulerz]

51 minutes ago, Earthshine said:

Cold into US

They may cause the jet stream to fire up, something to watch out for.

[Mark Parsons]

1 hour ago, East_England_Stormchaser91 said:

Starting to pay attention now to high res outputs, and already we have a possibility of a cheeky little channel low that’s popped up on the runs out of nowhere! This could be quite a snowmaker for London, Sussex, Kent etc! 

Is this not what the weather warning is for on Sunday/Monday??

 

[minus10]

16 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

well technically Marco is correct about the op 

Looking at it on wetter i would say not an outlier but towards the bottom..

Note how the mean starts to drop off again towards the latter third of the run...

[northwestsnow]

EC det trend setter ...

You never know- be nice if GFS made a move towards it...

 

[Scandinavian High.]

4 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

Nice little south of the M4 snow event on Tuesday night from the ICON:

This from the tropical storm that wasn’t - seems to threaten the south of the UK on some runs if the low splits and the forward part heads NE, T99:

Is Sunday night still on table south east

[IDO]

Just now, Scandinavian High. said:

Is Sunday night still on table south east

Models, as they do, are edging it south on the latest runs:

18z:  12z: 

[Mike Poole]

2 minutes ago, Scandinavian High. said:

Is Sunday night still on table south east

Not really - on that run, but there’s still a warning for it, I think.

[jmp223]

44 minutes ago, snowbob said:

Wow just wow at the charts we have had the pleasure to view this last week

such a difference for a change rather than waiting for deep fi for a frost.

the way I see it 

England still in world cup

england still cold

england for a chance of snow 

what is not to like right now.

we seriously need to enjoy these moments of cold chasing especially as it’s in our favour right now and as a certain Steve would say

its as rare as hens teeth to be in the game in december

England in the world cup   

Strong French uppers led by Mbappe and Grizeman are threatening to dislodge their shot blocking pattern...hehe, in all honesty good luck

[sheikhy]

Hmm whats gfs doing at 90 hours!!low seems more round and not disrupting as much!nothing like icon ecm or ukmo!!

[sheikhy]

What a dead 18z lol!!!!no excitement at all!!!!looks different at only day 4!!!