Model Output Discussion - the cold has arrived

[MATTWOLVES 3]

How's about something like this occurring! A chunk of Vortex about to drop over us and some real cold air in its wake. Many options are on the table.

[minus10]

 18z gfes so far...

 

Interesting cluster below the mean and op from 14th...

Edited December 9, 2022 by minus10

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

If the models are struggling how far north the low will get over the next 4 days, then how can we trust any FI output!? Until we clear that off, we can’t know for sure how long the cold May hold on for. Also the Scandi trough, how strong will that get? We don’t yet know! These small differences over the next 48 hours could change a lot over the next week or two! That’s why we are starting to see model disagreements creeping in. 

[BlueHedgehog074]

It’s kinda like the way we moderate the forums, including this thread. Some people may feel we’re too strict with the moderating, while some others might think we’re not tough enough. Can be difficult to get the right balance, but we can only do our best really  

[Mark wheeler]

14 minutes ago, minus10 said:

 18z gfes so far...

 

Interesting cluster below the mean and op from 14th...

Wow many go Cold  

[MATTWOLVES 3]

8 minutes ago, DiagonalRedLine said:

It’s kinda like the way we moderate the forums, including this thread. Some people may feel we’re too strict with the moderating, while some others might think we’re not tough enough. Can be difficult to get the right balance, but we can only do our best really  

You know what they say DRL..you can keep some of the people happy some of the time,but you'll never keep all of the people happy all of the time! And in fairness your a really good moderator who let's the place run pretty smoothly and fluently...like a good referee who rather than keep issuing yellow cards, will instead have a quite word in the players ears and tell them to calm it..and that always gets the most respect out of the players!

Sorry to go off topic there. 

[Cheshire Freeze]

1 minute ago, MATTWOLVES said:

You know what they say DRL..you can keep some of the people happy some of the time,but you'll never keep all of the people happy all of the time! And in fairness your a really good moderator who let's the place run pretty smoothly and fluently...like a good referee who rather than keep issuing yellow cards, will instead have a quite word in the players ears and tell them to calm it..and that always gets the most respect out of the players!

Sorry to go off topic there. 

Yep, one of the best moderators. I can tell he’s an empath too, which is a good trait to have.

[Eagle Eye]

1 minute ago, MATTWOLVES said:

You know what they say DRL..you can keep some of the people happy some of the time,but you'll never keep all of the people happy all of the time! And in fairness your a really good moderator who let's the place run pretty smoothly and fluently...like a good referee who rather than keep issuing yellow cards, will instead have a quite word in the players ears and tell them to calm it..and that always gets the most respect out of the players!

Sorry to go off topic there. 

Plus he knows his stuff. Anyway, it's not like moderating is an exact science, it's very much subjective, having been one once myself, everyone believes they are in the right and it's hard to get a good balance but I think the moderator's have got it basically spot on, on here.

[Beanz]

25 minutes ago, Downburst said:

It’s got that bias baked in believe me. Even the mods have unconscious bias. I had semi sensible posts removed years ago on here, when illiterate to semi illiterate experts on here with all the badges nowadays waffled their way to notoriety. Too much concentration on the south of England. Two people may have different opinions about these matters. Basic primary school education in western countries that isn’t comprehensive. The winds of change.

I recently discovered the ‘ignore’ feature works wonders for removing the illiterate waffle - apply this generously and you essentially self moderate to the point of pure MO discussion bliss

The shear fact I saw your comment is a badge of honour!

Edited December 10, 2022 by Beanz

[Pembroke Dangler]

The overriding pattern still points towards the polar vortex sitting primarily over the north Asia/Siberia local with continuing higher than average heights over Greenland and a general trend to put the uk in lower heights. Make of it what you will but we are in the ball park for a cold few weeks I would say. 

[Eagle Eye]

All agreed that we love the WRF-NMM in the south and the midlands for delivering the snow right?

Edited December 10, 2022 by Eagle Eye

[Wilxy]

3 minutes ago, Eagle Eye said:

All agreed that we love the WRF-NMM in the south and the midlands for delivering the snow right?

I mean I won't be complaining 

[alexisj9]

42 minutes ago, minus10 said:

 18z gfes so far...

 

Interesting cluster below the mean and op from 14th...

Sorry just realised these are the short gets, it's weird to see some warm runs back, hopefully they don't happen.

Edited December 10, 2022 by alexisj9

[geordiekev]

Why is it the models always like to end the week on a tease. It's almost like it doesn't want us to have a late lie in past 4am. Luckily the last chase fell on my night shifts but please models be kind & give us some consensus.

To be fair I've fancied a Greeny reload or thereabouts for some time seeing as the Atlantic is largely MIA

[MATTWOLVES 3]

Tell you what gang even though we have mentioned the ECM op was an outlier there's a fair bit of support amongst them ens for the cold to continue...I would say a 60/40 split.

 

[MJB]

240 Control looks good to me 

[alexisj9]

1 minute ago, MJB said:

240 Control looks good to me 

An Iceland high with low undercutting, it chase the slider time perhaps.

[The Enforcer]

As of midnight:

Was it forecasted?

WRF-NMM 2k 18z - not bad

WRF-NMM 0.05 18z - a bit too coastal

UKMO HD 12z - largely coastal

ARPEGE 0.1 18z - largely coastal

ICON-EU 21z - only coastal

UKV 21z - needed more precip

All have picked up on something happening in the area, but most have underplayed the inland penetration and/or amount of precipitation.

Edited December 10, 2022 by The Enforcer

[Coastal Eddy]

4 hours ago, Nick123 said:

Don't stop believing... hold onto the snowy feeling... streetlights, lampposts.. 

You must have been born and raised in South Detroit

 

[Earthshine]

Regardless of your weather preferences, you have to admit these are some very unusual synoptics for the second week of December (where you'd expect a roaring jet stream with rain band after rain band after rain band...)

 

Edited December 10, 2022 by Earthshine
Wrong gif uploaded

[ItNeverSnowsInWindsor]

Wouldn’t mind the high risk high reward opportunity by the ecm at 240h.

8A0042A7-9F8F-4CB0-BAB6-7263146C8A45.webp

[Allseasons-Si]

Just read the novel,...this thread and i like what i see but i needed these as it's getting on...

some stunning commentary in here this evening and @nick sussex  is like the Piccaso at giving us the art form of the models,..love it Nick and i am glad that you are back posting,i hope you are well and enjoying your vacation mate

i think that the gfs op/control will slow down with their progression bais of the pattern being blown away into a more zonal pattern as they are out of kilter with the other models even into/borderline reliable,the atlantic profile looks so much different from 144-168 hrs,...FL 120 tops IMO as always.

You can see from these two means from both the gefs and EPS at 144 hrs that the gefs keeps the -ve height(low) out into the Atlanic attached to the one SW of the uk whereas the EPS doesn't,we need this seperation of the two to gain amplitude/+ve heights up towards our NW,this would in turn prolong the cold spell for the UK.

the 18z gfs control is easier on the eye right now out to day ten>

removes matchsticks

G'night

Oh and one last thing,...the EPS regime projections are signaling another amplified blocking regime in -NAO  territory.

 

 

Edited December 10, 2022 by Allseasons-si
typo

[Kentspur]

As I'm on night shifts from tonight I'm up for the early morning runs. Thought I'd post a bit about the Icon 0z run. Seems to have lost the signal for any SE snow on Sunday into Monday but instead it brings convective style E/NE winds to the SE Tuesday night and Wednesday Morning  by t150 it is much improved with the ridging towards Greenland compared to yesterday's previous run-- a big step towards the 12z ECM op?

Edited December 10, 2022 by Kentspur

[Battleground Snow]

Icon cold throughout run, and ends like this at 180

[Cheshire Freeze]

Yep, ICON is a nod towards yesterday's 12z ECM