Model Output Discussion - the cold has arrived

[northwestsnow]

1 minute ago, Lord Baltimore said:

In what way ?

The cold air has already pentrated Scotland and the PV is about to drop in ,IMO of course.

[blizzard81]

Ignore the south westerlies. This chart is jam packed full of potential. Balmy south westerlies in conjunction with a northern hemisphere profile like this is how many if not most of the classic old skool snowy, freezing cold spells started. 

[Malarky]

4 minutes ago, blizzard81 said:

Interesting! I'm seeing signs of my prediction of a pre Christmas scandi high being resurrected this evening. The gfs was toying with this possibility days ago in the extended. Scandi highs do have a habit of cropping up at relatively short notice. Gfs control and mean attached. 

Amazing the lack of intensity in the pv there.

Can’t help but think nothing is off the table with a profile like that.

[blizzard81]

Just now, Malarky said:

Amazing the lack of intensity in the pv there.

Can’t help but think nothing is off the table with a profile like that.

Indeed. The mean chart is amazing over the arctic. 

[blizzard81]

8 minutes ago, blizzard81 said:

Ignore the south westerlies. This chart is jam packed full of potential. Balmy south westerlies in conjunction with a northern hemisphere profile like this is how many if not most of the classic old skool snowy, freezing cold spells started. 

Loving how it progresses. 

[Rossmcfc]

It's interesting to see the GFS continue to push the snow for the South on Tuesday and Wednesday, its completely on its own so I expect it too change soon. But what happens if it doesn't and its right with the front being further North, I reckon if it keeps pouring it out in the 24 hours maybe the others may change too it.

Interesting battle coming up, GFS vs every other chart

Edited December 11, 2022 by Blessed Weather
Large space under post removed.

[markw2680]

49 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

if only! - this wedge would would deliver a huge country wide blizzard if pattern was shifted East - usually we're hoping its further West.

As we all no we normally hope it’s further west for it to actually verify further east so based on that chart it could end up bang on. But will be changes come the next run anyway so it’s pretty irrelevant imo

[bluearmy]

6 minutes ago, Rossmcfc said:

It's interesting to see the GFS continue to push the snow for the South on Tuesday and Wednesday, its completely on its own so I expect it too change soon. But what happens if it doesn't and its right with the front being further North, I reckon if it keeps pouring it out in the 24 hours maybe the others may change too it.

 

Interesting battle coming up, GFS vs every other chart

You will notice that each run takes the precip that bit further south ……that’s a typical gfs trait ….

[That ECM]

Not your normal gefs. Look at the nhp. 

[Rossmcfc]

1 minute ago, bluearmy said:

You will notice that each run takes the precip that bit further south ……that’s a typical gfs trait ….

I agree, but the scenes if it was right 

[Methuselah]

Well, having just gone through the entire GFS 12Z, I have to say -- I'm none the wiser. As Napolean might have said when rampaging around Europe: Keep your barbecues close and your sledges closer?

    

[feb1991blizzard]

1 minute ago, markw2680 said:

As we all no we normally hope it’s further west for it to actually verify further east so based on that chart it could end up bang on. But will be changes come the next run anyway so it’s pretty irrelevant imo

it needs to clear East though, preferably quicker, and its just not - its moving very slowly NE on an Ensemble mean of 30 members.

- The canadian trough is catching it up and ends up phasing so the wedge ends up getting squashed in between the 2 troughs, a better suite though in that the wedge seems to last a bit longer - a good few members on the uppers graph quickly dip to -5c again

[Johnp]

GEFS suggest there should be plenty of fun and games on the run up to Xmas!

[geordiekev]

Once again the models doing their usual improvements as the day progresses. All very odd and does make you wonder if less overnight flights effect the amount of data available on 0z & 6z compared to later in day for our relevant timezones/locality. Have seen similar for years of watching, to not get too downbeat unless a full daily set have consensus 

[Vikos]

Can anyone please tell me how the models/ens in 2010 where since I can’t remember right if there was something similar i.e. massive mild predictions all over just before…? 
thnx

Edited December 11, 2022 by Vikos

[Frosty.]

Well…I just looked at the Gfs 12z op charts for Christmas Day and thought, what a garbage chart, but then I looked again..and thought, what a garbage chart!…. but then I looked at the surface temps and thought..well, at least it’s not mild!!!.. ..even with winds originating in Africa! ..hey, even southerlies can be rather cold!.. how things have changed since that record breaking warm autumn.. wouldn’t it be jolly spiffing not to have a mild Xmas like we usually get!!

 

 

Edited December 11, 2022 by Frosty.

[joggs]

But we've been promised screaming easterlies on here a few days ago.

Seriously. A warm up is on cards,for how long?.

Although on all the models,it's not a bad nh profile. We just seem to hit it wrong a lot more often than not.

Edited December 11, 2022 by joggs

[snefnug]

14 minutes ago, geordiekev said:

Once again the models doing their usual improvements as the day progresses. All very odd and does make you wonder if less overnight flights effect the amount of data available on 0z & 6z compared to later in day for our relevant timezones/locality. Have seen similar for years of watching, to not get too downbeat unless a full daily set have consensus 

You quoted flights and data, I claim my £5.00!  However a serious question which has probably been asked elsewhere above in the myriad posts.  Given the very cold environment (airmass?) we are in now, how would a mild sector manage to move in to effect return to Atlantic mild/wet in the timescales being mentioned?  Second question, how come models are showing increased volatility?

[feb1991blizzard]

Just now, bluearmy said:

12z ec keeps most of the snowfall east of the meridian 

yes - in line with the warning when you actually read the text.

[bluearmy]

15 minutes ago, Vikos said:

Can anyone please tell me how the models/ens in 2010 were since I can’t remember right if there was something similar i.e. massive mild predictions all over just before…? 
thnx

They were better as far as I recall 

yes,  post day 7/8 they wobbled but not like we’re currently seeing 

[Vikos]

1 minute ago, bluearmy said:

They were better as far as I recall 

yes,  post day 7/8 they wobbled but not like we’re currently seeing 

Thank you BA

[That ECM]

4 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

They were better as far as I recall 

yes,  post day 7/8 they wobbled but not like we’re currently seeing 

Agreed and not surprising when you look at this set up and then. More certainty then. This is more dependent on little features being in various places and the potential outcomes vary depending. 
 

i struggle to recall a more interesting period of output watching. It has professionals and amateurs on their toes for sure. Brilliant and I absolutely love it.

[Stuie]

Nice rebuild of the Pacific  HP ridge on this ECM run.

[MATTWOLVES 3]

I remember the days when I was a lad the PV used to be so beautiful,always well turned out and always kept itself together...well my god you've let yourself go...your completely falling apart

Edited December 11, 2022 by MATTWOLVES

[snowice]

 

 

 

 

Ecm 168 cold breakdown next weekend very consistent last few runs.