Model Output Discussion - the cold has arrived

[TSNWK]

Generally consistent with 12z to this point. Maybe a tough slower. Do think everything is trending a little south east each run. Which is a postive

[goosey007]

Looks good so far snow on the charts always works for me 

[Snowy L]

Quite the northerly

[Derecho]

A good 18z so far, nice to see high pressure over Greenland encouraging an eastwards nudge of the cold air.

Lets hope we can speed up the onset of that cold air and further dislodge that Euro slug. 

I'm usually someone who focuses a lot more on SLP patterns in our area of the Atlantic but can only admire that Arctic high next week.

Quite remarkable.

Less said about the 18z ICON the better.

[on the coast]

Fabulous 18z for cold

[Allseasons-Si]

The gfs has a snow event for the midlands from 168hrs

and i also should mention that the high to our NW is better aligned too,...NW-SE,

great run so far.

[blizzard81]

You couldn't really wish for a much better chart than this in the days leading up to Christmas.

[Battleground Snow]

Bye bye euro heights 

[joggs]

10 minutes ago, blizzard81 said:

You couldn't really wish for a much better chart than this in the days leading up to Christmas.

Look how far the polar high is making its way over. Granted it's only for the last couple of runs.

[MATTWOLVES 3]

Whisper it quietly...Scotland will get tanked over the coming days!

Whisper it even quiter there's a chance that Snow showers become more extensive by the middle of next week.

No drama let's have a white Xmas! It's a possibility for sure.

Edited December 14, 2022 by MATTWOLVES

[1947s coming]

5 minutes ago, Battleground Snow said:

Bye bye euro heights 

Yep that’s definitely a big part of the jigsaw hopefully that trend grows as the week goes on allowing the cold to push further south. The low to the west is tilted down to, hopefully that could slide interesting viewing for sure 

[Captain Shortwave]

It seems that the general toning down of low heights over Canada is resulting in a weaker jetstream across the Atlantic. As such it is unable to fully undercut the ridge west of the U.K. This means no retrogression and hence we are able to pull an Arctic maritime flow either from the north west (ECM) or a direct northerly.

 

To be honest I suspect that the northerly route would be preferred in the run up to Christmas, especially with a huge Arctic high on the scene. Any easterlies coming via that high have the potential to be severe.

[MJB]

Just now, MATTWOLVES said:

Whisper it quietly...Scotland will get tanked over the coming days!

Whisper it even quiter there's a chance that Sniw showers become more extensive by the middle of next week.

No drama let's have a white Xmas! It's a possibility for sure.

Great charts , I am guessing this is miles away from reality or the Beeb are a day behind lol

[IDO]

Two good blocked runs in a row by GFS, so if repeated in the morning, it may be onto something:

18z:  12z: 

Nice Euro trough:

D9: 

[fromey]

Just now, MJB said:

Great charts , I am guessing this is miles away from reality or the Beeb are a day behind lol

they use the ECMWF generally its behind, i may be wrong 

[Day_9]

GFS Op has been first onto the trend this year. And it takes a bold nosedive after the weekend.  They will all fall in behind their master in the coming days.

 

 

[MATTWOLVES 3]

1 minute ago, MJB said:

Great charts , I am guessing this is miles away from reality or the Beeb are a day behind lol

Most definitely not miles away from reality mate..the chances of this are just as high as something milder.

You will probably have to give the Beeb at least a week to catch on though..

[Allseasons-Si]

Look at these two,...erm,...holding hands and about to kiss

seriously though,...another great gfs run in the bag and following on from a great 12z,i await again for the gefs ens.

Edited December 14, 2022 by Allseasons-si
Added text

[1947s coming]

5 minutes ago, Captain Shortwave said:

It seems that the general toning down of low heights over Canada is resulting in a weaker jetstream across the Atlantic. As such it is unable to fully undercut the ridge west of the U.K. This means no retrogression and hence we are able to pull an Arctic maritime flow either from the north west (ECM) or a direct northerly.

 

To be honest I suspect that the northerly route would be preferred in the run up to Christmas, especially with a huge Arctic high on the scene. Any easterlies coming via that high have the potential to be severe.

Yes and most of the pv looks to the east that artic high could definitely start to push it towards us , possibly a nice north easterly, air feed from the pv

Edited December 14, 2022 by 1947s coming

[blizzard81]

Just now, Day_9 said:

GFS Op has been first onto the trend this year. And it takes a bold nosedive after the weekend.  They will all fall in behind their master in the coming days.

 

 

The GFS used to be King in it's handling of amplification to our north west. Time for it to remind us of this.

[MJB]

1 minute ago, MATTWOLVES said:

Most definitely not miles away from reality mate..the chances of this are just as high as something milder.

You will probably have to give the Beeb at least a week to catch on though..

I hope you are right Matt , the first 2 weeks of December have been the coldest first half of the month for 100 years , be great to top it of with a seasonal Xmas period 

[Allseasons-Si]

5 minutes ago, MJB said:

Great charts , I am guessing this is miles away from reality or the Beeb are a day behind lol

 

4 minutes ago, fromey said:

they use the ECMWF generally its behind, i may be wrong 

Yes this mornings ECM.

[MATTWOLVES 3]

1 minute ago, Allseasons-si said:

Look at these two holding hands and about to kiss

seriously though,...another great gfs run in the bag and following on from a great 12z,i await again for the gefs ens.

That's amazing si...2 baby seals and the missus also looks pregnant

Nice looking charts though..let's play this statement to death...The vortex is stretched...we are in unchartered territory! Exciting times!

[Snowmadsam]

The Azores high moves off on its holibobs on the 25th Dec. - Retrogression 

(Rrrreeeettttrrrrrooooooggggggrrrreeeeessssssiiiioooooonnnnnn)

Leaving the UK frosty. 

Edited December 14, 2022 by Snowmadsam

[Allseasons-Si]

Boxing day battleground anyone,...bring it forward a day