Model Output Discussion - the cold has arrived

[sukayuonsensnow]

1 minute ago, Allseasons-si said:

Boxing day battleground anyone,...bring it forward a day

Arctic cold v Atlantic. A different definition of Boxing Day.

[Notty]

3 minutes ago, Allseasons-si said:

Boxing day battleground anyone,...bring it forward a day

1962

[Snowmadsam]

Someone then pressed the "Restore to Factory default" on the 18z

But in the BROAD scheme of things - fascinating to see never the less

[blizzard81]

Cool mean

[Allseasons-Si]

The control run is identical to the op at 156

the 18z control is a lot better than the 12z at 162 without the phasing of the Atlantic trough...

 

[Allseasons-Si]

3 minutes ago, blizzard81 said:

Cool mean

Yes it is,...more upgrades in terms of not phasing the Atlantic trough,...great start to the 18z...

18z mean at 162 vs 12z mean at 168...

[blizzard81]

Bank. That's as far as we need to go for now.

[North-Easterly Blast]

1 hour ago, MJB said:

I hope you are right Matt , the first 2 weeks of December have been the coldest first half of the month for 100 years , be great to top it of with a seasonal Xmas period 

What about 2010?  That December had a CET of around 0.1 by mid-month I believe.

[Lukesluckybunch]

17 minutes ago, blizzard81 said:

Bank. That's as far as we need to go for now.

The mean is a real improvement even out as far as 204!

[Allseasons-Si]

4 minutes ago, Lukesluckybunch said:

The mean is a real improvement even out as far as 204!

Yes (and for here) back into the -5 line with a tight cluster starting to appear,...the 12z by this point was -3 so yes def an upgrade.

[minus10]

Quite a good cluster below the mean with the op after the 22nd on gfes 18z...

...ah...Si beat me to it...not quick enough..

[Allseasons-Si]

3 minutes ago, minus10 said:

Quite a good cluster below the mean with the op after the 22nd on gfes 18z...

...ah...Si beat me to it...not quick enough..

I had to find out where you live as i have never heard of Welwyn Garden City ha ha,that's not a bad set for N London i have got to say

[MJB]

15 minutes ago, North-Easterly Blast said:

What about 2010?  That December had a CET of around 0.1 by mid-month I believe.

My info was from the 21:55 with D Bett , so I guess they must know 

[Frigid]

Well.. after a 48hr mild spell, the mean goes back to where it was . A nice cluster forming around -6/7C. 

Great ens from the pub run 

[minus10]

4 minutes ago, Allseasons-si said:

I had to find out where you live as i have never heard of Welwyn Garden City ha ha,that's not a bad set for N London i have got to say

Never heard of Welwyn Garden City ?? Where have you been mate?

Actually that is some NH profile..

 

Dont think i have ever seen anything as ......well...'crazy'...

[Allseasons-Si]

1 minute ago, minus10 said:

Never heard of Welwyn Garden City ?? Where have you been mate?

Actually that is some NH profile..

 

Dont think i have ever seen anything as ......well...'crazy'...

Ha ha i guess i don't get around much but i am a few hundred miles away from ya

meanwhile the control run has got huggins of potential from here,..it's crazy.

[Frigid]

1 minute ago, minus10 said:

Never heard of Welwyn Garden City ?? Where have you been mate?

Actually that is some NH profile..

 

Dont think i have ever seen anything as ......well...'crazy'...

Has to be the chart of the winter, and its only the 14th Dec lol. 1070mb greeny high, PV sliced in half. Synoptically, its incomprehensible, haven't seen anything alike on the archive charts. 

[geordiekev]

Well that's 2 GFS runs in a row showing a more normal less west based NAO, so people will have to accept that the mild weather, some long for, just isn't happening as the momentum moves towards cold.

Have I done this right?

Seriously though, you have to be brave or stupid to call anything beyond the weekend & most respected posters are clearly using this inbetweener period to recharge, reflect & buy those much needed last minute pressies. Hopefully we'll get some concensus post blip. ⅚ of Winter to go so lots to be positive about with NH profile

[minus10]

17 minutes ago, Allseasons-si said:

Ha ha i guess i don't get around much but i am a few hundred miles away from ya

meanwhile the control run has got huggins of potential from here,..it's crazy.

Real animal theme to the nh profile tonite, puppies, kittens and seals...

[geordiekev]

21 minutes ago, minus10 said:

Never heard of Welwyn Garden City ?? Where have you been mate?

Actually that is some NH profile..

 

Dont think i have ever seen anything as ......well...'crazy'...

I know I've posted before but the CFS last week for week 4 was touting similar & seems a few models are toying with that evolution, albeit 2 weeks earlier than expected.

To me that's an indication that the background drivers are dragging the operationals to their destination point

[Allseasons-Si]

6 minutes ago, minus10 said:

Real animal theme to the nh profile tonite, puppies, kittens and seals...

And a crows face

the control has it nailed

 

look at those heights and temps,...spiffing

 

Edited December 15, 2022 by Allseasons-si
typo

[snowbob]

Think I did say last night patients 

this is really a setup we haven’t seen the models have to deal with.

technology has come a long way since the days of winter fairs on the thames

 lol

just saying 

but what if

there is a time when maybe just maybe.

upgrades are always better than waiting for Stella charts  that only go one way

well you know

Edited December 15, 2022 by snowbob

[minus10]

12 minutes ago, Allseasons-si said:

And a crows face

the control has it nailed

 

look at those heights and temps,...spiffing

 

Thats the 'Plaice' to be....eh...well maybe not..on that note i wish you goodnight...perfect winters night here , hard frost on the crisp snow, clear cold moonlight and a flat car battery tomorrow probably...goodnight..

[Purga]

I'll take the Control run for a spledid entree to the New Year

Edited December 15, 2022 by Purga

[Kentspur]

1 hour ago, minus10 said:

Never heard of Welwyn Garden City ?? Where have you been mate?

Actually that is some NH profile..

 

Dont think i have ever seen anything as ......well...'crazy'...

I used to work in Welwyn for a few months part time caring for some disabled children on Peartree Lane when I went to uni in Hatfield back in the day just after I got into this Netweather forum, all I think of is that posh little shopping centre there and the old Shredded wheat factory you could smell as soon as you got off the train. My best uni mate also was from there.

Nice enough place but I thought to myself I'd be bored sh##less as a kid, growing up around there or Hatfield where I was living. Although they have built quite a bit more there now.  Was nice being in Herts but I couldn't find a man's clothes ship in all of St Albans and I found in general people much more reserved, and a bit standoffish than here in the Garden of England& gateway to Europe where were used to having to greet and meet all different sorts of people all the time. Family came from East Kent originally the oldest civilisation in the country!

I was living in Herts for the Feb 06 snow event from a channel low there was about 6inches of snow which stuck around a couple days atleast yet back home in Dartford, Kent it was already melting the day it fell and was only half as much. This current spell has been more impressive for here atleast much better having snow when the suns weaker and with everyone's Christmas lights up.

Changing the subject- what's the record for this time of year Temps wise going from cold to warm to cold? This latest GFS ensemble setfor both SE and NW England looks impressive.

Edited December 15, 2022 by Kentspur