Model Output Discussion - the cold has arrived

[frosty ground]

southerly tracking jet

cold air digging into the north with runners along the southern base of the trough.

just need a bit of luck for these ingredients to mix 

[IDO]

3 minutes ago, Battleground Snow said:

Gem now disagrees with it's overnight run, and now has the best prospects for early cold,

Models really struggling with how intense this low will be at just 96 hours 

GEM has subtle differences from this morning:

D5 0z/12z:  

But pretty much the same long wave pattern. Of course, subtle differences in this setup can just edge cold in the right direction.

[booferking]

All the money spent on the gfs model and you can't get one consecutive run in the reliable what a show.

[Anon90]

Looks like a more typical winter type pattern setting in later on this run and you certainly wouldn't bet against it being bang on money.

Edited December 15, 2022 by Anon90

[Snowmadsam]

1 minute ago, booferking said:

All the money spent on the gfs model and you can't get one consecutive run in the reliable what a show.

Not at all surprised, many here want consistency but with this pattern you will naturally find that will not be the case because:

a.) this pattern does not happen that often

b.) even the teleconnection profile for this pattern doesn't happen often

 

In regard to watching runs from run to run there isn't much point as they will wobble. It's most likely better to wait for ens. 

 

(its frustrating me as well!!) 

[nick sussex]

This Arctic high seems to be causing all manner of model variability .

It could be partly due to the lack of observational data in that region . This was commented on as I remember by NCEP a while back .

 

[swfc]

9 minutes ago, sheikhy said:

Hopefully it has everything further east earlier on!!!

OK but it will be different on the oz Tom. The fluidity and confusion via the artic high on the charts is stark run to run. Maybe the late weekend will provide a clearer path or the meto,

Edited December 15, 2022 by swfc

[Ali1977]

I bet thé ECM flips cold later, that’s how these situations roll . The GEFS do seem to be following the Op however  

On the plus side, the heating bills should drop. 

[frosty ground]

6 minutes ago, LRD said:

Yes, it is. UKMO hasn't shown anything like that for days (apart from the upcoming mild).

Delayed cold? Until when? If that comes off, it's difficult to see when cold would come back

Delayed cold until the cold arrives, the cold will arrive on the 12z run and unless I’ve missed something is the 12z run now the final arbiter of what the weather will be next week?

 

[Derecho]

Ouch that GFS is a bitter pill to swallow, deeper low to our west, we struggle to get any cold air further east and heights over Europe struggle to drop. We may still manage some chiller incursions but that OP is a big step back for decent cold.

Hope the EC throws a curveball later but the closer we get to the key moment (the deepening of the low to our west on Sunday), the less likely the model output will make dramatic changes. Not good for our part of the world. Lets see what the ensembles say.

[Battleground Snow]

Just now, Ali1977 said:

I bet thé ECM flips cold later, that’s how these situations roll . The GEFS do seem to be following the Op however  

On the plus side, the heating bills should drop. 

ECM usually is similar to the gem right?

So nothing to worry about

[Frigid]

Yes its the CFS, but still an interesting outlook over the coming weeks. 2nd chart looking great for the christmas period. 

[Mucka]

Too late to save Xmas but GFS about to rebuild Atlantic High pressure toward Greenland, cold for New Year?

 

[Jake March-Jones]

Wow... It's really getting quite annoying now isn't it? Cold one minute, mild the next. 

Perhaps for Xmas it's just going to be average? I dunno... But it seems that people take each model run as the final determining one. It'll be alright... And if it's not, it's Christmas.

 

I bet it's 4c and dry Xmas day. 

[LRD]

1 minute ago, nick sussex said:

This Arctic high seems to be causing all manner of model variability .

It could be partly due to the lack of observational data in that region . This was commented on as I remember by NCEP a while back .

 

Yep agreed. Definitely time for things to swing back to cold. Let's look at the ensembles and ECM later and see how things stand this time tomorrow. A definite, pretty big setback so far from the 12s though

[Allseasons-Si]

So much chopping and changing within the models WRT this phasing of lows will it won't it with the Chuckle brother's saying to me to you that i wouldn't trust the models past 96 hrs

and as @nick sussex says,this arctic high and heights to our NW are proving a reel headache to forecast.

 

Edited December 15, 2022 by Allseasons-si

[tight isobar]

15 minutes ago, TSNWK said:

its not good. its phasing too far north and west on this run..

Was tongue in cheek mate. Anyway with an Arctic profile on view- it’s very difficult not to see us in the game big time preety soon!.. +96hrs is as far as I care to note atm.. there will be some notable changes soon I’m sure.. check the 12z ens suite against this op..ina bit.. I’ll think you’ll see the notion...

[booferking]

2 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

This Arctic high seems to be causing all manner of model variability .

It could be partly due to the lack of observational data in that region . This was commented on as I remember by NCEP a while back .

 

The euro slug not helping things either complete mess the models or at the minute. 

[bluearmy]

22 minutes ago, IDO said:

Again GFS moves towards this morning's GEM, a model that has been leading rather than trailing of late:

GEM 0z:  GFS 12z: 

Gem takes a different route on the 12z …..

[tight isobar]

1 minute ago, Allseasons-si said:

So much chopping and changing within the models WRT this phasing of lows will it won't it with the Chuckle brother's saying to me to you that i wouldn't trust the models past 96 hrs

and as @nick sussex says,this arctic high and heights to our NW are proving a reel headache to forecast.

 

[Connor Bailey Degnan]

Gem says merry Christmas everyone!!

[Cold Winter Night]

Now that's a Christmas run!

Removing all those Euro heights.
Excellent for long term cold.

[Ali1977]

Yes, merry Christmas from the GEM. If only 

[Mucka]

Scrap that Atlantic ridge, didn't expect the carcinogenic bomb

 

[nick sussex]

2 minutes ago, booferking said:

The euro slug not helping things either complete mess the models or at the minute. 

The Euro slug is really the result of the upstream pattern . I know it sometimes takes on mythical powers in here .

So now we’ve got the Euro slug and errant Arctic high to deal with !