Model Output Discussion - the cold has arrived

[tight isobar]

Listen!! Ok let’s get a sister suite set @ tooling nxt.. we’ll split the vortex.. and the jet?? .. something reviving up here.. we’ll note the above.. then look at the layer format in the morning... 

[Man With Beard]

1 hour ago, Frosty. said:

I’ve seen worse ECMWF 12z ensemble means for crimbo day!.. just saying! …it’s usually very mild innit!   

Knife-edge. The difference between freezer and hair-drier is close together. Or, potentially one straight after the other.

[snefnug]

16 minutes ago, LetItSnow! said:

Well, considering I was born in 2001, unless I can perhaps recall from a past incarnation, I'm talking about the synoptic charts... if that wasn't obvious?  Mods, feel free to delete this reply of mine!

Phew!

[northwestsnow]

Unless there is a dramatic flip in the morning it looks odds on the lows will phase pretty much where we don't want.

I still think there is scope just after Xmas for something seasonal ,but the run up to Xmas looks wet and windy for most...

Edited December 15, 2022 by northwestsnow

[Trom]

No flip on the 18Z

[Allseasons-Si]

Though UK trough looks like elongating here and maybe split it to two (red arrows),this would bring in a nor'easter afterwards(white arrow)

Edited December 15, 2022 by Allseasons-si
typo

[Johnp]

3 minutes ago, Allseasons-si said:

Though UK trough looks like elongating here and maybe split it to two (red arrows),this would bring in a nor'easter afterwards(white arrow)

Yes, a last minute improvement on this run - could still work out for Xmas?

[frosty ground]

artic air back into Scotland, clash of two airmass over the U.K. likely 

[Johnp]

Starting to look slidey

[Snowmadsam]

Just now, Johnp said:

Starting to look slidey

Please Santa, please 🥹  

[frosty ground]

hmmmm

 ️ 

[tight isobar]

Just now, frosty ground said:

hmmmm

 ️ 

Feasible options...hold fire

[sukayuonsensnow]

My gut is that much of next week will be unsettled, and after a very mild start, temperatures returning to near or just a little above average in the south, perhaps colder in the north. Most of any precipitation rain away from Scotland/mainly northern hills where there could be some wintry showers/hill snow.

A colder, drier interlude for Christmas....? Any snow probably on coasts or northern hills if any. A question as to how cold but either way I can't see much snow being likely for the majority of the UK.

Best case scenario is we get an unsettled period like late December 2009 where we see a milder wetter period away from northernmost UK, before very cold air spreads south again by New Year or a little after. But that's an optimistic scenario and way too early to be sure of that of course.

[Mucka]

Awww bless, GFS trying to give Northerner's a white Xmas?

[Lampostwatcher]

Is that a white xmas

I see on the gfs 18z🌨

[Allseasons-Si]

All knife edge stuff this,...somewhere in the UK could have a snow event around the festive period,...one to watch.

[sukayuonsensnow]

1 minute ago, Allseasons-si said:

All knife edge stuff this,...somewhere in the UK could have a snow event around the festive period,...one to watch.

It's possible. Most likely in northern parts and especially over high ground but not exclusively.

For the southern half of the UK its a long shot.

[Mucka]

 

Own up?

Who has been offering prayers to the imaginary red and bearded one?

[Allseasons-Si]

Ooooh!!!!

i am not an IMBY person cos i would like everyone to have snow around Christmas,...it would be lovely wouldn't it,...good luck alll

[Ali1977]

Just now, Allseasons-si said:

Ooooh!!!!

i am not an IMBY person cos i would like everyone to have snow around Christmas,...it would be lovely wouldn't it,...good luck alll

Imagine it’s so complicated, but it would be nice to have some serious upgrades by morning in time for the big day 

[Battleground Snow]

It's encouraging the models kind of agree the general set up around day 9, even if the mid term is messy 

[Mucka]

A seasonal ice day for Xmas, if only!

[sukayuonsensnow]

Would be great for some if this verified. I expect snow lovers in the Pennines to be dancing in the snow on Christmas Eve!

Only concern is that with each GFS run the colder air returning seems to get pushed back. 

Just something to be cautious about going into further model runs in the next few days.

[Uncertainty]

Not many times you see a band of snow crossing N England on Xmas eve. 
 

Unlikely of course.

But…

GEM

 

ECM

If Someone offered me the above on the big 3 for a random Xmas Eve - I would take it. Yet the mood on here has been despondent (I get why, you don’t need to tell me!).

Just goes to show the forecast for the Xmas period is not finalised yet.

PS

Lol at the Icelandic spoiler! We’re back to square one!

[alexisj9]

11 minutes ago, Mucka said:

Awww bless, GFS trying to give Northerner's a white Xmas?

That makes it look like the main bit of vortex is to our east, with a northeasterly up north.

Edited December 15, 2022 by alexisj9