Model Output Discussion - Christmas week and beyond

[nick sussex]

5 minutes ago, KTtom said:

If this isnt a Bartlett could someone show me one?

 

I’ve seen worse and still have my I survived the 1988/1989 winter horror show t-shirt! 

The ECM is poor but throws a few scraps by day ten as the PV to the north starts relenting and heights begin to rise there .

Edited December 23, 2022 by nick sussex

[Bartlett High]

5 minutes ago, KTtom said:

If this isnt a Bartlett could someone show me one?

 

C

[Continental Climate]

1 hour ago, Weather-history said:

Wonders of a continential climate

Deep freeze for Christmas and Spring for New Year! 

 

Look at the lack of frigid air at 850hpa across the pond. Its almost as if the storm completely drains away the intense frigid airmass away like water down a plughole

 

Oh no my heart bleeds for the blessed yanks lol. 

[Climate Man]

2 hours ago, RJBingham said:

Word from where?  based on what?

Been listening to Madden?!

[supernova]

Control shows one possible route out of humdrum on the GFS deep in FI but not particularly well supported by other members of the suite.

 

Edited December 23, 2022 by supernova

[johncam]

2 hours ago, CreweCold said:

Given what we’ve seen over the past couple of weeks, post ‘upgrade’, I’m really not too sure how much use using the GFS will be going forward.

Or how much use the new GFS is at all , not been performing well 

[LetItSnow!]

50 minutes ago, KTtom said:

If this isnt a Bartlett could someone show me one?

 

Warm and soggy NYD if that comes off! All the appeal of a soggy piece of moldy bread that the ducks forgot. Wouldn’t want that to come off. That would ensure two exceptionally mild New Years in a row. Haven’t looked at the other models myself yet so I’m n off sure if that’s what the consensus is at day 10. Good for heating bills. Bad for sunshine. Exceptional for ducks.  

[ANYWEATHER]

As the Atlantic is now looking to go on Overdrive, I think between Christmas and new year the concerns will turn to Flooding issues ,as there does look some potent low pressures being Predicted due to a very strong jet stream. Very strong winds will likely also be an issue....the models are useless at predicting blocking and cold spells, but are amazingly good at predicting turbulent weather...

[Ali1977]

Something to look for, signs of a SSW in a few weeks. 
 

Current GFS FI as a marking point!! 

 

Control a little stronger 

Edited December 23, 2022 by Ali1977

[SLEETY]

Why is ECM op always a mild outlier at the end, waste of computer memory, just stop it at 168hours

Pointless it running any further 

[RJBingham]

1 hour ago, Climate Man said:

Been listening to Madden?!

It's the sort of thing he'd say, this was his Christmas forecast from a couple of weeks ago.

"We could see the dominant winter theme persist through the rest of this month and into January. In addition, while it is still tricky to give specific dates and times, the signals show a strong chance that parts of the country will have some heavy and disruptive snow in the run up to Christmas."  

How he gets people to pay for this  

[Ali1977]

3 minutes ago, RJBingham said:

It's the sort of thing he'd say, this was his Christmas forecast from a couple of weeks ago.

"We could see the dominant winter theme persist through the rest of this month and into January. In addition, while it is still tricky to give specific dates and times, the signals show a strong chance that parts of the country will have some heavy and disruptive snow in the run up to Christmas."  

How he gets people to pay for this  

Even the METO longer range forecasts flip from one day to the next, total gamble trying to predict more than 7 days out it seems. 
This maybe a crumb of comfort with todays FI charts - they are likely to be wrong and we could be in a BFTE in 2 weeks! - that would be nice 

[mulzy]

22 minutes ago, SLEETY said:

Why is ECM op always a mild outlier at the end, waste of computer memory, just stop it at 168hours

Pointless it running any further 

You can apply that to an operationals - only of any use up to day 5 (or day 4 if GFS).  Ensemble guidance post day 5.

[bluearmy]

35 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

Something to look for, signs of a SSW in a few weeks. 
 

Current GFS FI as a marking point!! 

 

Control a little stronger 

Ec 46 was showing broadly this for end week 2 and into 3 - very few members went v weak through the rest of the month. 

[syed2878]

Horrifying model runs today for the next couple of weeks. I think we will be at the mercy of the Atlantic it does not look good. Anyway, despite what the models are showing I wish all members and staf at netweather her a very happy Christmas and I hope you all enjoy your selves with family and friends on Sunday. Still all is not lost the Met office going for call mid Jan so let’s wait and see what happens.

[sparky71a]

6 minutes ago, syed2878 said:

Horrifying model runs today for the next couple of weeks. I think we will be at the mercy of the Atlantic it does not look good. Anyway, despite what the models are showing I wish all members and staf at netweather her a very happy Christmas and I hope you all enjoy your selves with family and friends on Sunday. Still all is not lost the Met office going for call mid Jan so let’s wait and see what happens.

If you were wanting to blow a good deal of your hard earned on the central heating,then I suppose they are indeed horrifying. I'm a cold lover,but these are fabulous charts if they come off this year. Just no damaging winds please! Have a good Christmas everyone

[Nick F]

47 minutes ago, SLEETY said:

Why is ECM op always a mild outlier at the end, waste of computer memory, just stop it at 168hours

Pointless it running any further 

Seems to be a repeating theme of the det. - 00z really is the warmest member at the end for London. Perhaps because it is the most extreme of members with the jet stream orientated SW-NE and deepest Atlantic trough /  strongest Euro high drawing air from the Azores.

Though the EC det and its mild end of the spread tendencies has probably been closer to the mark at range with the milder theme Xmas - New Year than the GFS op which has tended to go for colder scenarios with blocking over Greenland or to our NE that never look likely.

Day late, but chance of some flakes for western Scotland, N. Ireland, NW England and N Wales on Boxing Day

Rather disturbed weather setting in thereafter, with a strong jet streak aimed at the UK from Wednesday, which could spawn a few deep lows which could cross somewhere over or close to the UK and could be worthy of being named. GFS and EC show a deep low threat for Wednesday and Friday. Tracks differ a lot between models but to be expected that tracks and timings will be unknown this far out.

 

Edited December 23, 2022 by Nick F

[78/79]

10 hours ago, Mark wheeler said:

Keep up the good work everyone, must admit I feel quite low for a number of reasons. 
 

My Ill health has had an upside as recently it has meant I have had the pleasure to chase the cold in the last few weeks. More So to learn more about all aspects of the tools available to us. 
 

I have enjoyed the cold period and a bit of snow fall we had here too.

I admit I was clinging on to the GFS charts a little at the end but it's the hope that gets you eh. Hats off especially to @CreweCold that called this right so early on ( had my fingers in my ears ) 

My Ulcerative Colitis in the meantime has got a little worse so much more fatigued but I have been fortunate that I am being treated by some fantastic Doctors and Nurses at Kingston Hospital. 
 

Hopefully we can turn on the winter tap once again this winter. 
 

Kind Regards Mark

Get well soon Mark, hope you have a good Christmas. 

[TSNWK]

46 minutes ago, SLEETY said:

Why is ECM op always a mild outlier at the end, waste of computer memory, just stop it at 168hours

Pointless it running any further 

Maybe me.. but all this talk of ecm being  a mild outlier is a little unjust as to my eye ecm day had called it right in essence...

On bills.. last week I was clicking up 20pd thus week its 12pd so as ardent coldie I'm content for it now to stay mild as this set up will do for next month or so and hope for a 1 week Jan 87 in 4 weeks or so than spring.

Merry Christmas  

[blizzard81]

Worst set of model suites this winter so far. Yesterday looked promising down the line for some decent polar north westerlies digging in but they have evaporated into thin air this morning. I should have known this because I've noticed the models do this every winter and have done for quite a few years now - they forecast the polar front digging south only for the dreaded Euro heights to inflate more than predicted at approx day 5 or 6. It's a model carrot dangler that has become very predictable and boring now. I expect the meto monthly to have a 'milder' wording to it when it is updated today. 

[mushymanrob]

2 hours ago, KTtom said:

If this isnt a Bartlett could someone show me one?

 

Pretty much supported by the NOAAs..

 

[TSNWK]

6 minutes ago, blizzard81 said:

Worst set of model suites this winter so far. Yesterday looked promising down the line for some decent polar north westerlies digging in but they have evaporated into thin air this morning. I should have known this because I've noticed the models do this every winter and have done for quite a few years now - they forecast the polar front digging south only for the dreaded Euro heights to inflate more than predicted at approx day 5 or 6. It's a model carrot dangler that has become very predictable and boring now. I expect the meto monthly to have a 'milder' wording to it when it is updated today. 

It was set from start of this week when we lost the northern blocking abd vortex setup.. we might still get an occasional run with a chilly toppler in a week but likely to disappear as much as verify and we are now living on scraps for January abd hope for a SSW for a final horary in February 

[snowspotter]

Isn’t the high pressure set up exactly what happened last January ? I seem to remember a huge warm high pressure system over southern Europe. 

[Purga]

The future is orange.

And Bartlet shaped,

. Sod it ! - have a great Christmas everyone -

 

 

[frosty ground]

18 minutes ago, blizzard81 said:

Worst set of model suites this winter so far. Yesterday looked promising down the line for some decent polar north westerlies digging in but they have evaporated into thin air this morning. I should have known this because I've noticed the models do this every winter and have done for quite a few years now - they forecast the polar front digging south only for the dreaded Euro heights to inflate more than predicted at approx day 5 or 6. It's a model carrot dangler that has become very predictable and boring now. I expect the meto monthly to have a 'milder' wording to it when it is updated today. 

The swing in the GFS ensembles is quite extreme from a possible PM shot between Christmas and new year to nothing but a build of warmth with 850’s steadily increasing until the end.