Model Output Discussion - Christmas week and beyond

[Allseasons-Si]

17 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

at last - after a run of fizzlers on the op we have a sizzler - eps mean doesn't look all that interested though, if you run the sequence through last few frames it just doesn't really do much - usually indicative of a fizzler.

 

What site did you get that chart from Feb,...need to add more sites to my long list of favourites

[feb1991blizzard]

11 minutes ago, Allseasons-si said:

What site did you get that chart from Feb,...need to add more sites to my long list of favourites

ECMWF | Charts

CHARTS.ECMWF.INT

 

[Allseasons-Si]

I know this doesn't look much ATM but you can see the Euro heights starting to edge northwards in the ext'd,it is an amplified pattern out of the states with that +ve anomaly in NE America,...just need to back it further west so that we can get the Euro heights to amplify further to our N/NE just like the latest gfs run shown,what strikes me though is that the jet seems to be firing up on the other side of the NH in the N Pacific which in turm amplifies the pattern in the states

let's slow that trop pv down again,@trop pv,...you had your mini break now give us one he he

the gefs still favouring an decent amplitude into phase 7-8 mid month> but the ECM is less inclined though,when has it shown any better than the gefs,...never has IMO

so a conclusion here then,...a holding pattern for now with some unsettled weather briefly coming in off the Atlantic then a reduction of westerly momentum as we go into Jan mid month looks likely with the NAO/AO slowing down a tad into neg values again thanks to the jet firing up north side of the NH amplifiying the pattern out of the states.

 

 

9 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

ECMWF | Charts

CHARTS.ECMWF.INT

 

Oh!!!,...i have that site already ha ha,just didn't look at the strat charts,...doh!!!!

[RhHh]

6 hours ago, MATTWOLVES said:

Is it just me,or do many of you feel that special sense of occasion on Xmas day. A togetherness and the one real day where you get all your bitterness,frustrations and anger and sweep them all up and put them under the carpet! The one day where your perhaps gonna make it up with a loved one,or a long lost friend who you swore blind that you would never speak to again.

And to think that if your year as been truelly bad with many a bad memory,or your hoping that when that New Year bell sounds this time next week,that a new year will hopefully bring you much more joy and better fortune! For health reasons...for money reasons...and obviously for all things meteorological.

The year is about to wind down and we face a rut of unfavourable weather conditions for at least a 10-14 day period...beyond this anything goes..its a different year and anything is possible to change for the better for both us as persons and yes...weather events that may bring us much joy! We just don't know yet because these events have yet to get started..This for me is the big excitement,not knowing what is coming next! The anticipation of what could happen..yes we could 2nd guess and make a prediction....but until said events materialise we just don't know.

Things may look poor right now,but how will things look this time next week? They could be looking dire...but they could be looking sublime! 

So on this fantastic Xmas day I send you hope...goodwill and the strength and fight to get through 2023 with more vigour than ever before.

And fresh off the grapevine I detect a little hint of some colder ensembles amongst those mogreps 6z runs. Yes it may be a toppler but sometimes small tadpoles become giant . 

Keep positive my friends.

Nope 

[blizzard81]

5 hours ago, bluearmy said:

I can’t rely on someone that can’t spell wintry Matt ….. that should be the pre requisite for a ‘forecaster’ that is prepared to go public with a tweet !

Funnily enough I've seen some meto updates with that exact spelling mistake over the last month. Unforgivable. 

[The Enforcer]

T+120 - Euro heights lowering:

[lassie23]

Will we get another cold spell before March

[alexisj9]

8 minutes ago, lassie23 said:

Will we get another cold spell before March

Yes lol 

[lassie23]

16 minutes ago, alexisj9 said:

Yes lol 

merry christmas

[KTtom]

5 hours ago, blizzard81 said:

Funnily enough I've seen some meto updates with that exact spelling mistake over the last month. Unforgivable. 

Im still not convinced anyone with much authority compiles those updates...even todays uses the term 'Heavy snow showers' in its extended update from a brief northerly. Its very unlike them to be so specific so far out so can only conclude they let the security guard write yesterdays. 

[jules216]

Happy Christmas to all weather followers, our 5 days cold snap mid December now a distant memory, last of snow melted yesterday and so far running about +1.5 anomally, the mild spell that will last well until 10.1 and beyond will put even those regions around me that are runnung -1 anomally in to like +1 anomally. It would have to be a 1985 February style to make this winter anything else then a poor brother of last 4 forgetful winters. 

[John88B]

6 hours ago, blizzard81 said:

Funnily enough I've seen some meto updates with that exact spelling mistake over the last month. Unforgivable. 

Wintry or wintery, either way of spelling it is acceptable, its just that wintry is the more common way of spelling it.

[Lukesluckybunch]

On 22/12/2022 at 20:30, Sunny76 said:

 

Absolute awful gfs run in terms of cold..and ECM was horrid also!

[IDO]

Looking at the GFS op from D8-16 we see the tPV ragged, and there for the taking. There does not appear to be any strength or connect with the sPV:

Just a bellowing Pacific high can easily send a wedge into the polar region, so any forcing wave patterns would seemingly develop into another blocked NH pattern. If there is an MJO signal for higher-heights, the GFS is currently not modelling that. It is a benign setup that hopefully is not a saga. Of course, a polar high without some sort of meridional flow is not that great within the current flow.

The ECM NH at D10 is similar with regard to the tPV, so assuming status quo, week 2 of Jan, may be too early to see something better to surface. My optimism level is 3/10 for the first half of January. Hopefully a new signal will pop up earlier.

For IMBY, the hope is a N/S divide, so respite from the rain in week 2; the mean hints at that (D8-16):

Have a good Boxing Day.

Edited December 26, 2022 by IDO
more specifics

[KTtom]

24 minutes ago, Lukesluckybunch said:

Absolute awful gfs run in terms of cold..and ECM was horrid also!

Yes, I think the best outcome I can see for week 1 January is high pressure nudging in from the south making it dry and mild as opposed to wet, windy and mild.

[bluearmy]

2 hours ago, John88B said:

Wintry or wintery, either way of spelling it is acceptable, its just that wintry is the more common way of spelling it.

You’re probably correct - the same people that have made slippy acceptable. Language evolves - bah humbug!

some scandi ridges in the extended manage to advect a fair amount of deep cold into europe and a few as far as nw europe. the back end of the clusters are encouraging but a long way away 

straws ……

[johnholmes]

8 hours ago, blizzard81 said:

Funnily enough I've seen some meto updates with that exact spelling mistake over the last month. Unforgivable. 

Re this wintry wintery discussion.

As a meteorologist of the old school, I always used wintry, but

Showing results for oxford dictionary for wintry or wintery
Search Results

Featured snippet from the web

In modern English, wintry is the preferred spelling of the adjective meaning of, like, or relating to winter. Wintery has a long history in English, but it has never been the preferred form, and it has no meanings of its own.

Turning to the likely weather for the next 10-14 days. The NOAA charts have little signal for a cold blast!

Climate Prediction Center - 6-10 Day 500mb Outlook

WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

 

Edited December 26, 2022 by johnholmes

[KTtom]

God you can tell the models are crap when there is virtually a whole page discussing the spelling of a word!

[Fozfoster]

Just now, KTtom said:

God you can tell the models are crap when there is virtually a whole page discussing the spelling of a word!

Yep its about as wintry/wintery as it gets a the moment! 

[northwestsnow]

We cant shake those godforsaken euro heights.

It's just eating away winter.

[bluearmy]

Now seeing the gfs introduce a second warming by day 16 as the earlier one fizzles somewhat, having displaced the vortex towards svaalbard.  This is evident on a fair few gefs members. This has my interest as I recall some ssw splits in the past following this evolution. Repeated strong warmings, each one a little stronger than the last.  The eps mean only goes to day 15. There is an indications that something is headed into the Asian sector from europe at that point in time but it’s going to need to be picked by the 46 later (which is possible as it will run off the back of this eps run) if we are to see today if the eps have seen the same second warming ahead. 

[SLEETY]

9 minutes ago, KTtom said:

God you can tell the models are crap when there is virtually a whole page discussing the spelling of a word!

Exactly, just shows you again as we head into January, that as far as the UK is concerned it should not be classed as a winter month as the temperatures are more spring like year after year. 

Nothing in the model output indicates any change for at least two weeks. 

We have to hope the warming high up will effect Europe hopefully tail end of January, otherwise just mild weather will be dominating throughout the month. 

So utterly predictable!!! 

[pip22]

GFS has the early NYE storm further north now.

Winter is still on. I bet you don't see these during the Spring/Summer anyway.

 

[Ventnor Viking]

6 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Now seeing the gfs introduce a second warming by day 16 as the earlier one fizzles somewhat, having displaced the vortex towards svaalbard.  This is evident on a fair few gefs members. This has my interest as I recall some ssw splits in the past following this evolution. Repeated strong warmings, each one a little stronger than the last.  The eps mean only goes to day 15. There is an indications that something is headed into the Asian sector from europe at that point in time but it’s going to need to be picked by the 46 later (which is possible as it will run off the back of this eps run) if we are to see today if the eps have seen the same second warming ahead. 

Thanks for the update. On previous occasions has this usually led to cold conditions for the UK? Thanks

[Alexis]

Models strangely flat as a pancake this morning?

lack of data flights yesterday? (I'll get my coat)