Model Output Discussion - Christmas week and beyond

[bluearmy]

Icon 12z and eps control 06z both less amplified to our ne in the 5/6 day period 

[Nick F]

Before the 12z GFS / UKMO / GEM / EC roll out, not a bad look from 00z EPS extended day 15 H500, T850 and T2m:

GEFS getting into MJO P8 eventually, as does EC, albeit low amplitude:

Edited December 30, 2022 by Nick F

[nick sussex]

Rather embarrassingly the GEFS were wrong at T24 hrs with their MJO forecast!

US forecasters rarely use the GEFS for the MJO and mostly  prioritize the ECM.

[78/79]

2 hours ago, Chesil View said:

I don't know about not wanting it when you're older Alexis. I'm 62 and work outdoors and would happily welcome back another Jan 87 type spell.  Cold frost and snow beat endless wet and windy crap any day of the week for me.

Know what you mean, the bloody wind and rain plays havoc with my work right throughout the year.    Doesn't get any easier as you get older either.   

[Don]

10 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

Rather embarrassingly the GEFS were wrong at T24 hrs with their MJO forecast!

US forecasters rarely use the GEFS for the MJO and mostly  prioritize the ECM.

So, until the ECM goes for it like the GEFS, the MJO will look to be less favorable for mid month?

[Nick F]

12z GFS says forget about the Scandi high having any influence next week, seemingly easily pushed out the way by a stronger Atlantic on this run ... 

[Don]

1 minute ago, Nick F said:

12z GFS says forget about the Scandi high having any influence next week, seemingly easily pushed out the way by a stronger Atlantic on this run ... 

That and along with a poor Metoffice monthly outlook this afternoon, not a great start to the evening?!

[nick sussex]

Just now, Nick F said:

12z GFS says forget about the Scandi high having any influence next week, seemingly easily pushed out the way by a stronger Atlantic on this run ... 

Looks like another backtrack . They really need to sort out the GFS before it sinks without trace . 

The upgrade has made it worse not better .

[Don]

Just now, nick sussex said:

Looks like another backtrack . They really need to sort out the GFS before it sinks without trace . 

The upgrade has made it worse not better .

Yes, they do!

[lassie23]

4 minutes ago, Don said:

That and along with a poor Metoffice monthly outlook this afternoon, not a great start to the evening?!

First week of January is often utter garbage if you like cold and snow

[Nick F]

6 minutes ago, Don said:

That and along with a poor Metoffice monthly outlook this afternoon, not a great start to the evening?!

We'll have to wait until we get to the end of the GFS op run, besides, the Scandi high idea next week was looking like a lame duck with only GFS hinting it may hold back the Atlantic. Medium range should hopefully still hold interest on the midday runs wrt to colder polar martime flows from the west or northwest and maybe the odd brief lee Nly up towards mid-month. It's by mid-Jan things may get interesting if we get some amplification from the MJO lag. 

As for the Met Office LR forecasts, don't really take a great deal of notice of it, as it seems to change like the wind.

Edited December 30, 2022 by Nick F

[Gowon]

Not bad UKMO.. Interested to see what happens later on

[Don]

1 minute ago, lassie23 said:

First week of January is often utter garbage if you like cold and snow

Unless we can find a time machine to take us back 13 years, how about that?! 

Certainly has been in recent years though!

[LRD]

8 minutes ago, lassie23 said:

First week of January is often utter garbage if you like cold and snow

Corrected for you mate

[Daniel*]

Signs of trough disruption here against Scandi cold block but the Icelandic low is a big thorn, It’s a shame we couldn’t have seen this happen a few weeks ago as trop was very fertile to cold/blocked weather patterns.

Edited December 30, 2022 by Daniel*

[Eagle Eye]

1 hour ago, bluearmy said:

the end of the gfs 06z shows a profile between 30 and 50N above 20 hpa that I’m not sure I’ve seen before. ???

@chionomaniac @lorenzo- does that look strange to you Ed/Tony ?
 

 

Vertical cross u-mean + EPflux

WWW.WEATHERISCOOL.COM

 

Looks to me like a large shifting of the polar-night jet due to increased thermal flux action as expected though its a very odd position of the Vortex for it still to be that strong as well considering the quick zonal wind shifting and EHF vectors but that's just my thoughts and I don't follow these charts that much. Looking at it and it's looks like with increasing connectivity with the subtropical Eddy jet, the polar-night jet strengthens somehow. Perhaps the Stratopause holds the key here. I'll update my thoughts when the Stratobserve update for today comes out though.

 

Edited December 30, 2022 by Eagle Eye

[bluearmy]

An intriguing gem fi …….

[Day 10]

Just now, bluearmy said:

An intriguing gem fi …….

Was just posting day 10, way into FI but yes at least it's something...

[Mucka]

19 minutes ago, Gowon said:

Not bad UKMO.. Interested to see what happens later on

Best looking chart for the timeframe in a long while as far as "potential" goes and UKMO has been backing the blocking W for the last few runs and strengthening Arctic blocking.

If something like this can come off then we should get a trough digging SE lowering those Euro heights and bringing NW flow.

That in itself won't be so exciting unless the blocking is strong enough to sharpen that trough up and mix in more Polar and less maritime air in which case snow showers for S Scotland, N Wales, NW and central England become possible but the knock on will be to finally amplify the pattern and we would need to see how the moth flops from there.

Edited December 30, 2022 by Mucka

[Nick F]

5 minutes ago, Daniel* said:

Signs of trough disruption here against Scandi cold block but the Icelandic low is a big thorn, It’s a shame we couldn’t have seen this happen a few weeks ago as trop was very fertile to cold weather patterns.

Definitely a signal there for wave breaking of the Atlantic jet just to our east, with WAA going north aloft over Scandi and to Svalbard on UKMO, GFS doesn't get WAA that far north before the Icelandic TPV overwhelms and pushes the Scandi ridge east - but at least the jet is on a more southerly track with the TPV displaced from Greenland into the far N Atlantic - this allows colder uppers to get quite a way south across the UK.

[Allseasons-Si]

I am keeping  my eye on this Scandi/Urals block as it keeps on upgrading with trough disruption against it,...the UKMO looks interesting at 168 in that regard.

Edited December 30, 2022 by Allseasons-si
typo

[MJB]

Wasn't the SH only building at this point , the one next week was a mere carrot dangler 

[blizzard81]

Are we beginning to see the model suites sniffing out the embryonic stages of a 'beast from the east' scenario for January? Or another tease? Gem and ukmo at differing timeframe but similar in their thinking. I think that's the first time I've ever posted a gem chart...... But I like it . Anyway, a watching brief for now. Onto the ecm. 

[nick sussex]

Its a Scrussia,  Arctic high combo on the UKMO at day 7 .

Its a shame all those shortwaves are complicating things and a chunk of vorticity looks like it’s being sent from the ne  to reinforce the PV over west Greenland .

You’d need to get low heights into central Southern Europe and a clearance of those shortwaves before the reinforcement finishes.

Edited December 30, 2022 by nick sussex

[Daniel*]

They say wedges make sledges, well a bit more amplification to north on UKMO at day 7 with low sliding SE and well look at all that cold to northeast. Interest has returned to model output it began yesterday evening really.

Edited December 30, 2022 by Daniel*