Model Output Discussion - Christmas week and beyond

[feb1991blizzard]

19 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Yes - I posted the charts a couple of days ago 

thought it was signalled well in both suites but wasnt all that impressed with the ops wrt specifics once inside the reliable - a lot of convective E'ly and N'ly flows  showed on outputs.

[JoeShmoe]

2 hours ago, Cymro said:

Oh Kasim can you not refrain from sucking any positivity away from each run? 

Do you want him to lie to make you feel better? I’d rather read honest analysis instead of long shot charts at +240 and ‘signs’ of an SSW

keep up the good analysis kasim, you are one of the better ones on here

Edited December 30, 2022 by JoeShmoe

[Rocheydub]

Some amount of hope casting here as opposed to forecasting...

[Cymro]

13 minutes ago, JoeShmoe said:

Do you want him to lie to make you feel better? I’d rather read honest analysis instead of long short charts at +240 and ‘signs’ of an SSW

keep up the good analysis kasim, you are one of the better ones on here

I'm sorry I really don't see your rationale here. I don't watch the weather's developments to feel anything?

It's quite evident since the beginning of this winter that Kasim has been more than downbeat in his posts regarding winter weather prospects. 

Much analysis is brilliant I don't doubt that but this is a forum for the whole of the UK and it is incorrect to refer to Scandinavia in his commentary earlier when Scotland tomorrow and Sunday will see heavy snowfall and any PM NWly as modelled in the 6/7 day range will likely bring snow to Wales, Northern England, Scotland and Ireland and at times other areas of England. 

If you set your bar so high (even with being 450m abs) you will never be satisfied and I think at times a little perspective and context of the UK's position in the Northern Hemisphere wouldn't go a miss for most of us. 

Edited December 30, 2022 by Cymro

[Kasim Awan]

Signs of a temporary polar maritime influence around 7th-9th Jan. Under current modelling the wind strength and lack of stagnant troughing would likely limit wintry potential to 300-400m+. This may change, however it's clear that a change to a less optimal flow is more likely given recent GFS backtracks following in hindsight overestimations in negative angular energy. Any decent chance to more marginal land is more likely to be on the western side of the low as it cleara. However, given the block over western Russia, this is no guarantee and it's possible that the low may just churn away in the Atlantic like is shown on the JMA - this keeps a steady flow of polar maritime air into Scotland whilst the south sees "faux cold zonality" establish. As a result any rear end northerly input would be rather temporary.

On a positive note, seeing a large low develop on modelling is an OK sign as it signals that the PV is ready to partition energy. This could eventually result in a more prolonged cold zonal flow. However, @Cymro, with all due respect, cold zonality is extremely fickle snow wise, even here mild sectors and sea modification can factor in, so to say the north would "see snow" is probably something of an over exaggeration. Especially under the levels of cold zonality being projected here - which in my experience tend to only deliver to upland regions (i.e. uppers of -2 to -5 in a windy flow).. though we may see small changes in the magnitude of cold predicted. -6 and light winds is what is needed for more marginal regions and there is little widespread indication for this in the output yet.

I am just saying what I think guys.

Edited December 30, 2022 by Kasim Awan

[JoeShmoe]

4 minutes ago, Cymro said:

… when Scotland tomorrow and Sunday will see heavy snowfall …

And this is the problem with the hope casting that goes on here when it’s Atlantic driven for the forseeable. Tomorrow in Scotland is dry and cold with rain and some snow on the mountains arriving late into the night. 95% of the Scottish population won’t see a flake 

[joggs]

After being away for a while I thought I might come back to some decent output for cold. Alas I can see nothing in the reliable to get excited about for me.

Cold rain doesn't cut it for me. Coupled with underwhelming MO further,time for another break.

Happy new year all.

[Kasim Awan]

6 minutes ago, JoeShmoe said:

And this is the problem with the hope casting that goes on here when it’s Atlantic driven for the forseeable. Tomorrow in Scotland is dry and cold with rain and some snow on the mountains arriving late into the night. 95% of the Scottish population won’t see a flake 

90% yes

Streamer activity north of Inverness early hours 3-9cm above 200m asl

1-3cm locally above 30m asl inland

[matty40s]

3 minutes ago, joggs said:

After being away for a while I thought I might come back to some decent output for cold. Alas I can see nothing in the reliable to get excited about for me.

Cold rain doesn't cut it for me. Coupled with underwhelming MO further,time for another break.

Happy new year all.

We will see you again in February then

[Eagle Eye]

20 minutes ago, Rocheydub said:

Some amount of hope casting here as opposed to forecasting...

For me it's fine saying it but you've got to have proper evidence to back it up,  (e.g a new trends emerging) this is a forum rather than a Met Office forecast. I don't see too much in the short term for now but I don't see why a +VE EAMT event or slightly more amplified MJO phase 7/8 can't lead to some decent cold mid January onwards. Most support is for a zonal pattern but there's still some backing for a colder pattern and at this range it's too difficult to tell of course especially with the AAM so close to neutral, a strong +VE event and all of a sudden we're back in the game. Plus we've got the Strat pattern that might help us.

Edited December 30, 2022 by Eagle Eye

[joggs]

5 minutes ago, matty40s said:

We will see you again in February then

We'll see. Chasing 10 day charts for snow,I've learnt over the years to not be too involved on model output.

No problems with people that do. Just like to keep it realistic.

Enjoy your chase.

[Ali1977]

Decent chart building here , shame it’s FI 

[Polar Maritime]

Let's please keep discussion nice and respectful

[Tim Bland]

Hints there of a split or at least space for a ridge?

[Kasim Awan]

4 minutes ago, matty40s said:

We will see you again in February then

See him in 2058?

I agree that factors seem to be building to provide some potential interest later in Jan. However, the ramifications of this are unlikely to show on model output for a while. So lets not let that deny the fact the forseeable is generally poor. PM incursions wont cut it for most given the strength of the jet. We'll see in a week or two perhaps if the build in telleconnection potential begins to reflect on output.

[Man With Beard]

I'm interested in that little ridge to the north east on the ECM mean between D7-D10. That could result in something interesting by mid month. If ridging towards Iceland is even slightly more than currently projected, a back-edge north easterly becomes an option...

Not a forecast but just seeing a possible way forward for coldies in the short-term!

[damianslaw]

Last post from me 2022, continued signs we may see something less mild at least as we move through second week of January, the jet shifting slightly further south allowing polar maritime air to infiltrate more concertedly and importantly eroding heights somewhat to our SE.. not expecting any major change generally though through first part of January, broadly atlantic driven, in the days ahead watch for further signs of pressure builds to our west longer term as the trough lifts out and shifts east, a precusor to something possibly colder mid month with either mid atlantic heights or heights wrapping around a diving trough into scandi, building to our north/north east. Whilst we have a strong jet right now, we have had much stronger PV at this point in the year, and there is no signal it is about to shift into a stronger gear. January all to play for..

 

[blizzard81]

As some might say on here - Just for fun...... This is what the 12z ecm control looks like at days 14 & 15.

[Battleground Snow]

Repeated warmings, eventually it has to take the strat vortex down right?

Edited December 30, 2022 by Battleground Snow

[blizzard81]

Old skool January anybody?

[bluearmy]

14 minutes ago, Battleground Snow said:

Repeated warmings, eventually it has to take the strat vortex down right?

Only if we can manage to get the spv to be much more stretched than currently forecast

btw, another run which ends with a very displaced spv at 1 hpa ( close to Baffin). 

[blizzard81]

That would pack a punch in the heart of winter. 

[RhHh]

1 hour ago, joggs said:

After being away for a while I thought I might come back to some decent output for cold. Alas I can see nothing in the reliable to get excited about for me.

Cold rain doesn't cut it for me. Coupled with underwhelming MO further,time for another break.

Happy new year all.

Don't let the MO outlook put you off watching. Their updates change regularly. 

[alexisj9]

14 minutes ago, RhHh said:

Don't let the MO outlook put you off watching. Their updates change regularly. 

Yes, but they do reflect today's models very well. Let's hope for the lows to be slacker then they look at the moment. The wind will mix out the cold.

[blizzard81]

2 minutes ago, alexisj9 said:

Yes, but they do reflect today's models very well. Let's hope for the lows to be slacker then they look at the moment. The wind will mix out the cold.

I suspect they are slightly behind the curve and expect their update tomorrow to be a slight upgrade.