Model Output Discussion - Christmas week and beyond

[Daniel*]

14 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

Getting hotter still, and slowing edging closer 

Give this a little more time, major SSW if this verified no doubt about it. Can it be trusted though! 

[Ali1977]

4 minutes ago, Daniel* said:

Give this a little more time, major SSW if this verified no doubt about it. Can it be trusted though! 

Even the mean is showing substantial warming, it wasn’t yesterday. Let’s hope it materialises and we get a February to remember - or even late January. 
 

The control is similar to the Op. 
 

 

Edited December 31, 2022 by Ali1977

[DavidS]

6 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

Even the mean is showing substantial warming, it wasn’t yesterday. Let’s hope it materialises and we get a February to remember - or even late January. 
 

The control is similar to the Op. 
 

 

Yes GFS getting more bullish on this now. Temps now being modelled upto 0c at 10hpa. Still a long way out, but nevertheless very interesting.

[northwestsnow]

High pressure pulled west on the EC mean

 

Id say the det will be an outlier with the pattern..

Edited December 31, 2022 by northwestsnow

[Ali1977]

4 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

High pressure pulled west on the EC mean

 

Id say the det will be an outlier with the pattern..

That’s a very PM looking mean there . The GEM looks good too , it would certainly have us in a cold wind chill!! 

[ANYWEATHER]

Well on the operation models Gfs, Ecm ,apart from the one or two rounds of rPM air ,I can't see anything to get too excited about if your a cold fan, unless you like loads of wind and rain...to start 2023....

[northwestsnow]

8 minutes ago, ANYWEATHER said:

Well on the operation models Gfs, Ecm ,apart from the one or two rounds of rPM air ,I can't see anything to get too excited about if your a cold fan, unless you like loads of wind and rain...to start 2023....

PM isn't my cup of tea either TBH but I guess if you have decent altitude and are exposed to NW winds then you may see decent snowfall over the next 10 days.

For the vast majority though it's a rather crappy pattern.

[Stuie]

Not a bad effort at flatlining from  the ECM 

[BlueHedgehog074]

Despite the pretty nice 00Z ECMWF mean towards the end of it’s run, in terms of 850 hPa temperatures, the ECMWF operational run was on the cold side of things for a time towards the end of the graph. Shown on the example below for Birmingham:

For Aberdeen, the operational was also on the colder side of things from January 5th (not hugely so), then becoming close to the mean at the end of the graph:

 

Bit of a surprise, but might mean models may be partly overdoing how chilly some of the West to North-Westerly flows might be (not to say though that the operational isn’t right).

The 00Z Mogreps ensembles does offer some colder options after a peak in milder 850 hPa temperatures from 5th January onwards, though most struggle to go below -5*C 850 hPa temperatures. Despite that, with it being further North, the Aberdeen ensembles (2nd chart below/across) has quite a few of the ensembles members clustering fairly tightly around the -5*C mark:

 

I do agree nothing particularly remarkable, but some kind of cool down for a time from 5th January onwards, seems possible. 

Mind, there’s always this should not much in the way of white stuff occur in the next 2 or so weeks… ️

 

(Edit: noticed poster above beat me to some of it) 

Edited December 31, 2022 by DiagonalRedLine
Removing double attachment and other bits and bobs

[Tim Bland]

GEM doing its best to irradicate the euro slug and push the PV east. Let’s hope we get that SSW to really shake things up

Edited December 31, 2022 by Tim Bland

[Battleground Snow]

Low has slid under the block this run...

[MATTWOLVES 3]

You know me folks,can't beat a bit of nostalgia.. ever get up in the morning go outside and smell the air...and all of a sudden you start having flashbacks to yesteryear!

Think back...2017...Mid December....a cold snap with a good dumping of snow in places. The cold snap then eased up and was followed by PM shots which brought quite a bit of snow towards the NW. 

What come next? A massive strat split,followed by the BFTE,then a second smaller episode after that!

I'm feeling a sense of deja vu.... The talk of things getting toasty up top are now circulating like a pack of vultures on social media!

Things could,and I emphasise could get exciting further down the road.

So good folks of Netweather...I would like to take the time too wish you a brilliant and Happy New Year,and may all your dreams transpire...if your health is poor,then I wish you a speedy recovery for 2023...God Bless.

[Battleground Snow]

High pressure about to link up?

Is this just another 06z tease, big change early on

[Ali1977]

This is a huge change at day 6, much better with the high holding ground near Scandy and the low sliding from the Atlantic 

snow event day 7 for the north!! 

Edited December 31, 2022 by Ali1977

[Ali1977]

Could this be a flip to cold at day 10, PM into northerly into Scandy

[CoventryWeather]

2 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

Could this be a flip to cold at day 10, PM into northerly into Scandy

It's got easterly all over it.. can it get south enough to allow it to occur? 

Edited December 31, 2022 by CoventryWeather

[MJB]

Snow showers packing into the NW I'd imagine 

[CoventryWeather]

Cold air to the North and East. Could be potentially bitter if that came off at day 10.

[Ali1977]

Day 9 snow in the south, and the pattern now getting very interesting 

[Battleground Snow]

10 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

This is a huge change at day 6, much better with the high holding ground near Scandy and the low sliding from the Atlantic 

snow event day 7 for the north!! 

It's like the models have been underplaying the mjo influence and are now reflecting it the nearer we get..

Remember a couple days ago the scandi high was brushed away with ease, now it's trying to disrupt a piece of the vortex 

[Tim Bland]

Wow , how quickly can fortunes change…by day 10 there’s snow for most! 

[legritter]

Hi gang Something is Brewing .I wish all posters a good new year ,im lurking around and enjoying the chase take care all .

 

[CoventryWeather]

10 minutes ago, Battleground Snow said:

It's like the models have been underplaying the mjo influence and are now reflecting it the nearer we get..

Remember a couple days ago the scandi high was brushed away with ease, now it's trying to disrupt a piece of the vortex 

Models haven't been brilliant with blocking patterns this winter imo. Seems like they have been underestimating most patterns similar to these recently.

Day 10 strat warming - much better than recent runs imo.

Edited December 31, 2022 by CoventryWeather
Added strat charts

[bluearmy]

Well at least we won’t over react to a gfs op run …….

it’s all on the table folks ……. We’ll it’s more of a field than a table at the moment ……

[Polar Maritime]

Plenty of cool/cold PM shots dragging colder air further South on the 6z GFS into Wk2. With strong winds and gales at times for some. Snowfall mainly over high ground (which could see blizzard conditions) but also to low levels at times. Some very active wintry weather on the cards as we head into mid-Winter..

 

Edited December 31, 2022 by Polar Maritime