Model Output Discussion - Christmas week and beyond

[blizzard81]

2 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

I wouldn’t trust those . Too far out and there’s a model bias in these set ups.

The GFS in particular also has a bias to overplay the depth of cold in PM flows.

 

You're right about gfs but it's not just that model. It's ecm and yes, I can't believe I'm posting jma and gem lol but there is a growing model consensus that shouldn't be ignored. 

[SqueakheartLW]

Here's a few I'd take in mid January

I know I've cherry picked them but it's a while since I've seen these sorts of charts in the ensembles on any of the 3 main models.   

[Drifter]

31 minutes ago, Kasim Awan said:

No such thing as standard meteorological terms.

 

What a strange thing to say. 
I’m sure the RMS or Universities teaching Meteorology degrees don’t just make up terminology on the go. 

Edited December 30, 2022 by Drifter

[Eagle Eye]

3 minutes ago, Drifter said:

What a ridiculous thing to say. 
I’m sure the RMS or Universities teaching Meteorology degrees just make up terminology on the go. 

They just love guys called Eddy and heat flux don't they

[Don]

2 minutes ago, Kasim Awan said:

I think anyone who even suspects a Jan 2014 esque reduction in north atlantic energy is possible in the next 15 days is not grasping the fact that the long range output got the early dec cold nailed on back in oct. Those same long rangers forecast a strengthening in zonal winds about now and to last a while. That is exactly what we are seeing. 

What long range output forecast the early December cold back in October and zonality now?  More to the point, what are they forecasting for February and March?  More Atlantic dross I suspect?!!

[Kasim Awan]

7 minutes ago, Drifter said:

What a ridiculous thing to say. 
I’m sure the RMS or Universities teaching Meteorology degrees just make up terminology on the go. 

No one is bound to a terminology glossary on a social forum though. Concepts are concrete pathways for atmospheric behaviour which we all conform to when interpreting charts. However, the terminology used to express these concepts are ambiguois in this science however the variants all allude to the same thing. Varied terms also help explain variations of the same mechanism and are generally accepted in the community (bartlett, azores, sceuro highs etc). That's why I will use a varied terminology and continue to do so. There are individuals who are more conforming in this regard - kudos to them - even though their wording may seem wildly different the underlaying concepts are still the same.

3 minutes ago, Don said:

What long range output forecast the early December cold back in October and zonality now?  More to the point, what are they forecasting for February and March?  More Atlantic dross I suspect?!!

The met office long range model glosea5 long range I think. I can't remember all I know is that it forecast a flip to zonal and strengthening of the tropospheric hadley circulation in Jan / Feb.

Edited December 30, 2022 by Kasim Awan

[northwestsnow]

Nervously waiting ext eps ..

Will the Arctic High offer hope ?

[Cymro]

53 minutes ago, Kasim Awan said:

...For central Scandinavia. Looks nothing more than bog standard zonal affair for us.

Oh Kasim can you not refrain from sucking any positivity away from each run? 

[Mike Poole]

ECM clusters T192-T240, the op run sits in cluster 4, while the GFS type evolution is the majority one in cluster 1:

The other two pull the euro heights west as the trough moves through.

T264+:

And we’re heading to - blocked.  3x -NAO (detail close to UK notwithstanding) 1x Atlantic Ridge, 1x Scandi block.  All in all, a decent afternoon’s model output, hopefully future runs firm things up a bit.

Edited December 30, 2022 by Mike Poole

[Lukesluckybunch]

Just now, Cymro said:

Oh Kasim can you not refrain from sucking any positivity away from each run? 

but kasim is right...its so often the case the cold air reluctant to cross the north sea!

[Marting]

7 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Nervously waiting ext eps ..

Will the Arctic High offer hope ?

The cooling trend continues in the ECM 15 dayers  tonight

Edited December 30, 2022 by Marting
Typo

[northwestsnow]

Just now, Mike Poole said:

ECM clusters T192-T240, the op run sits in cluster 4, while the GFS type evolution is the majority one in cluster 1:

The other two pull the euro heights west as the trough moves through.

T264+:

And we’re heading to - blocked.  3x -NAO (detail close to UK notwithstanding) 1x Atlantic Ridge, 1x Scandi block.  

Excellent news Mike

[Daniel*]

Broadly the EPS mean is not much different to last night. Good to see those Euro heights erode away.

[northwestsnow]

Just now, Daniel* said:

Broadly the EPS mean is not much different to last night. Good to see those Euro heights erode away.

Its excellent ..

[Lukesluckybunch]

1 minute ago, Daniel* said:

Broadly the EPS mean is not much different to last night. Good to see those Euro heights erode away.

that looks great daniel i must say..you would be thinking east or northeasterlies come the end of the run?

[MATTWOLVES 3]

1 hour ago, Drifter said:

What a strange thing to say. 
I’m sure the RMS or Universities teaching Meteorology degrees don’t just make up terminology on the go. 

Kasim is saying some very strange things this Winter. I think some of it is coming down to past failures of cold snaps..which should never make you feel that every year will play out the Same way. He was far more upbeat last year and that failed to deliver anything..

The way I see things is a slow burner to something colder at times...I feel that a Strat split will occur further into January,but I feel more certain that the pv will again become stretched,and you can tell by tonight's output that we are already seeing signs of the Vortex becoming displaced again.

Long range modelling picking out the December cold back in Autumn! I'm not sure, i know that the met said there was little sign of anything cold for this December back in October! Cause they got criticism for it from an MP regarding our gas usage! And that's not me throwing stones at the met...cause 2 months out is a bloody hard thing to predict...but I do find they are always very cautious these days regarding wintry conditions.. its almost like they never got over the embarrassing fail of 2019! And this is another reason why we shouldn't discount Winter based on there monthly updates!

Bottom line.. there is more interest moving forward than what we were seeing around Xmas...when it really did look flat with a far to strong iberian high.

Edited December 30, 2022 by MATTWOLVES

[Daniel*]

4 minutes ago, Lukesluckybunch said:

that looks great daniel i must say..you would be thinking east or northeasterlies come the end of the run?

Remember those are anomaly charts… it’s not showing strong blocking for example, but this is what you expect given the long range but there is clearly a big enough signal within ens, which are more blocked at those higher latitudes. The lower heights are one big part of hurdle fortunately that looks more secure. Similar to what we had earlier this month I would imagine. Notice similar areas seeing worst of cold Scandi and U.K. almost like a repeating pattern. Northeasterly winds would be brutal. Important to stress uncertainty, but interesting signals nonetheless the EPS identified the last cold spell very well.

[Lukesluckybunch]

1 minute ago, MATTWOLVES said:

Kasim is saying some very strange things this Winter. I think some of it is coming down to past failures of cold snaps..which should never make you feel that every year will play out the Same way. He was far more upbeat last year and that failed to deliver anything..

The way I see things is a slow burner to something colder at times...I feel that a Strat split will occur further into January,but I feel morr certain that the pv all again become stretched,and you can tell by tonight's output that we are already seeing signs of the Vortex being displaced again.

Long range modelling picking out the December cold back in Autumn! I'm not sure I know that the met said there was little sign of anything cold for this December back in October! Cause they got criticism for it from an MP regarding our gas usage! And that's nit me throwing stones at the met...cause 2 months out is a bloody hard thing to predict...but I do find they are always very cautious these days regarding wintry conditions.. its almost like they never got over the embarrassing fail of 2019! And this is another reason why we shouldn't discount Winter based on there monthly updates!

Bottom line there is more interest moving forward than what we were seeing around Xmas...when it really did look flat with a far to strong iberian high.

there are some slight hints at the moment it may begin to start colder around 11/12th jan..i think the next week 10 days are a right off! with the angry looking PV in place..if we see somthing sustained again im not so sure,i would love a prolonged cold spell though end of january

[snefnug]

1 hour ago, Cymro said:

Oh Kasim can you not refrain from sucking any positivity away from each run? 

Sorry, Mrs Grammar here, just omit the ‘not’ otherwise he’s gonna keep doing it…. 
 

and to be fair, he calls what calls.  

 

Edited December 30, 2022 by snefnug

[Lukesluckybunch]

6 minutes ago, Daniel* said:

Remember those are anomaly charts… it’s not showing strong blocking for example, but this is what you expect given the long range but there is clearly a big enough signal within ens, which are more blocked at those higher latitudes. The lower heights are one big part of hurdle fortunately that looks more secure. Similar to what we had earlier this month I would imagine. Notice similar areas seeing worst of cold Scandi and U.K. almost like a repeating pattern. Northeasterly winds would be brutal. Important to stress uncertainty, but interesting signals nonetheless the EPS identified the last cold spell very well.

yes those low heights towards the end of the run,are exactly where we want them central and southern europe...nice graph looks a bit cold over norway!

Edited December 30, 2022 by Lukesluckybunch

[MATTWOLVES 3]

This is exactly what I've been talking about the last couple of weeks..to early to say if we can get a major split...but disrupted and stretched looks highly likely..Keep in mind we had madden oscillation going through the latter stages with a stretched PV earlier in the month! What's the chances we end up in a similar situation come mid and final 3rd of the next month...I await with anticipation  

[Eagle Eye]

4 minutes ago, MATTWOLVES said:

This is exactly what I've been talking about the last couple of weeks..to early to say if we can get a major split...but disrupted and stretched looks highly likely..Keep in mind we had madden oscillation going through the latter stages with a stretched PV earlier in the month! What's the chances we end up in a similar situation come mid and final 3rd of the next month...I await with anticipation  

I've also been saying for a while about the Wave-1 initial onset (don't wish to bang my own drum, it was the models showing it that made me actually look into it)but so far no reversal is forecasted and displacement SSW'S (usually minor though I think can be major)typically end up better for North America with Europe wanting a split which would usually want a Wave-2 warming so just want to tamper expectations. The forecasts right now are moving in the right direction but I think we need an 'inside job' with a Trop North American clock tilting vertically and splitting the Vortex but the signal for anything like that seem to be later in the month at the moment so we've got to keep up that Wave-1 warming for as long as possible so that the Strat is displaced and centred closer to Greenland.

[BlueHedgehog074]

Looking at the progression between the 6 to 10 day, and the 8 to 14 day, 500mb anomaly charts from the CPC/NOAA, there could be a chance for the Atlantic, Westerly, dominated pattern to allow more in the way of cooler shots from the West/North-West sector going into the 8 to 14 day period. So maybe at least more of a Polar Maritime influence at times:

6 to 10 day:

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/500mb.php

8 to 14 day:

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/500mb.php

Upper flow (green line) over the UK is more from a direct Westerly direction on the 8 to 14 day chart compared to the more West-South-Westerly flow from the 6 to 10 day chart.

While no signs yet of a proper Scandinavian block (no guarantee one will rock about), heights are a fair bit above average over the Eastern and Central Canada area, and also over the Arctic. Not high enough for a true Arctic High or anything, but a chance for some weak(ish) Arctic heights, so no strong Polar Vortex sitting on a chair over the Arctic. 

Not a very cold or snowy paradise, (though I imagine rather cold and wintry for the Scottish hills and mountains), but a chance for chillier conditions at times again later into the period. Even the South could experience less milder or chillier conditions at times. With the 6 to 10 day anomaly chart showing some of the above average heights across Southern/South-Eastern UK lowering on the 8 to 14 day chart along with some of those above average Arctic and Eastern/Central Canadian heights, this could assist Low Pressure areas in the Atlantic to go further East. Thus letting chillier air from the West/North-West to become more of an influential player for the UK. Nothing much out of the ordinary but would somewhat increase chances of wintry weather, albeit probably mostly for high ground Northern and Western areas

[CoventryWeather]

1 hour ago, Daniel* said:

Broadly the EPS mean is not much different to last night. Good to see those Euro heights erode away.

A question regarding the cold spell earlier this month - did the EPS pick that out well? Thought I saw somewhere it picked it up in the mid/long range? 

[bluearmy]

Just now, CoventryWeather said:

A question regarding the cold spell earlier this month - did the EPS pick that out well? Thought I saw somewhere it picked it up in the mid/long range? 

Yes - I posted the charts a couple of days ago