Model Output Discussion - New Year and Beyond

[Scandinavian High.]

Am reading this right possible being put freezer from east also westerly’s are ready to push in .

[minus10]

That is some high..

....eating away at the vortex...

[Nick F]

8 minutes ago, Scandinavian High. said:

Am reading this right possible being put freezer from east also westerly’s are ready to push in .

Has slider low against cold air entrenched written all over it, trouble it's GFS past day 10 ....

What does appear to be a reoccurring theme between extended model ensembles in the means is a block over the Kara Sea, that's going help wave drive up to the strat, see the EPS H500 mean 11-15 day below:

Energy / troughing pushing down from the TPV to the N / NW getting increasingly squeezed by height rises over the NW Atlantic and also the high over Kara Sea / Urals - suggests increasing trough disruption over / near UK in the extended / mid-month - with some cold air from the NW, N and even, eventually perhaps, the NE in the mix.

Edited January 7, 2023 by Nick F

[That ECM]

Whether people buy it or not, it’s much more interesting to view. Fwiw when output starts to get a bit crazy stuff is happening.

[TEITS]

You always know the signal for cold is looking promising when you have such a different model run between 0Z ECM & GFS 06Z and yet both produce a promising output for cold weather. However sometimes this can mean they are both wrong!

Been a funny time viewing the models because from an instinctive point of view the weather patterns are not behaving as I would expect. No idea why though and if you cannot figure out why a forecast went wrong in the past then you will always struggle to predict the future.

Basically this is me saying I haven't a clue what is going to happen. Shall just watch the output without making any predictions.

[Cambrian]

Looking at it a bit more, the 0z ECM was very helpful to the cause!

The mean T850s drop below the long term average at day 6, then stay a couple of degrees below average all the way through to the end of the run at day 15. 

The control run lies between the op and the mean through to day 10, and the control and op are very similar at day 10 - all show a chilly, cyclonic picture, with a northwesterly flow from southern Greenland to southern Britain and Ireland. Op / Control / Mean.

  

It’s one of those useful runs where the control looks to be hinting nicely at what the op would have shown if it had ran past day 10. 

The control run progresses to this at day 13, a deep depression to the north of Scotland, embedded in cold air - some quite disturbed, rather exciting winter weather being indicated here, uppers around -6 degrees - and still a good synoptic match for the mean.

  

And notice the same Kara Sea heights that the GFS is showing, which will serve to prevent a polar coalescence of the PV and keep the low heights pushing south over Europe - things beginning to come together for a return to something a bit more like winter. 

[minus10]

Well this anom from gfs6z 240 says it all..

..intense Kara sea anomaly combined with the one to the west just south of Greenland locking in the trough over the uk and down into Europe...much more interesting (even if it is gfs day 10)..

...also Aleutian low so further precursor impacts on the vortex?

[That ECM]

Mean upgrade.

[swfc]

Looking at the 0z and 6z gfs both in the same ballpark as to say. TEITS made a good point just now tho. the synoptics these days don't seem to build a block run to run with anything you could hang your hat on. Imo this also applies at the 120/144 hr Mark. Stange times nhp wise for sure but interesting at the same time

[Catacol]

First sign of negative anomalies at the top of the strat for a while - trash GFS modelling but good to see nonetheless

I've been doing some more reading around the MJO, and from Riddle et al's 2012 article an interesting pasted graph:

Cluster 4 in their research is essentially a -NAO profile in the atlantic and this graph shows the signficant lag time impacts of each MJO phase in helping support that -NAO shape. Notice the peak significance of the phase 6 to 7 movement and the lag of 10-20 days attached to the peak period of phase 7 influence. MJO passage recently is this:

so given phase 7 passage from 30th Dec to 5 Jan before losing amplitude any benefits from the MJO look to be in the period 10 - 25 January. This paper suggests phase 8 less significant for -NAO than I expected though the paper does not focus on Scandy potential...

Still the GWO orbit is holding up....code for a more Nino wave pattern than traditional move to a flat Nina

and this means a context conducive to yet more amplification going forward. As MattH has correctly pointed out momentum at 40-50N has been on the high side recently

 

but  I do not expect this to continue not least because of the usual wax and wane shape of the wave pattern globally and a fall in momentum at 50N is predicted even without lag MJO impacts. Factor the MJO into the equation and chances increase further.

Finally - the trop pattern as forecast continues to support ongoing strat disruption. I've been looking for wave 2 impacts to appear, handicapped by the withdrawal of the Berlin maps - but here we go. Wave 2 up and running as early as 192

Signal fades beyond 192 but I have no confidence in GFS at range at the moment and am prepared to state that it is incapable of seeing what lies ahead.

Overall weekend conclusion = growing confidence that the westerly misery will abate mid month, that pacific forcing will give us a more settled setup with a chance of higher latitude blocking taking hold....and I am also becoming more confident that a SSW might occur. Timescale difficult - but when Amy Butler takes to Twitter and throws a little log onto the fire talking of late Jan/early Feb patterns of wQBO/Nina split SSWs we should all take notice. 

Roll on the NWP hunt for colder charts that will begin this coming week.

 

 

Edited January 7, 2023 by Catacol

[minus10]

13 minutes ago, minus10 said:

Well this anom from gfs6z 240 says it all..

..intense Kara sea anomaly combined with the one to the west just south of Greenland locking in the trough over the uk and down into Europe...much more interesting (even if it is gfs day 10)..

...also Aleutian low so further precursor impacts on the vortex?

Gfes mean in same ball park...

[damianslaw]

All three models GFS, ECM and UKMO continue with the trends shown yesterday, the atlantic long wave trough deepening and sharper, thanks to a more amplified flow as we enter mid-month period ( a week's time), height rises out of the western atlantic seaboard, the jet then digs further south and we see it more aligned NW-SE, hence a surge of colder uppers from the NW, sub 528 dam air for most, with sub 522 dam air thicknesses into NW regions as shown in ECM 10 day output. Still too early to call a change to colder unsettled is on the cards, but if we continue with these synoptics by Monday entering the reliable timeframe, we will be able to say this. After 4 weeks of persistantly very mild SW airflow, for anyone wanting something colder, this change will be welcomed. Naturally as I say we often see variations after 3-4 weeks in mobile flows, and I am incrreasingly confident a colder (not very cold) more just average for mid winter and unsettled spell is on the cards. Think cold zonality as happened in lattter stages of Jan 2015.

Edited January 7, 2023 by damianslaw

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

4 hours ago, northwestsnow said:

Good point Fred.

I think it's been so crap model and weather wise since mid December most of us are just desperate for a change..

Let's hope we get a change it's rained here for weeks and it's getting depressing..

This can’t continue….one hopes!  However, I feel the models will move more and more towards the amplification and colder conditions, and the plunge NW/SE (even more vertical) of a deep LP (or 2) is the direction of change for me.  Once we get this, several doors of opportunity open.  I think we will get -6 to -8 upper air over us widely and thus snow chances will increase.  I think the type of change I have in mind you are in excellent location.  However, we are still looking towards midmonth and we need to see growing consistency over the next week to gain confidence.  For now it is FI….but it’s not an ‘unrealistic’ or ‘unreasonable’ evolution.  If a Jan 1987 popped up one feels we could ignore that.

 

BFTP

[Ali1977]

If there is a decent chance of an SSW, or at least signs similar to that of the EC then we may see a wording change from the METO fir the long range. As for the 8-12 day range it would be nice to see that improve even further on the 12zs, and possible brought forward a day or 2!!

 

Something like this around day 10 maybe. 

[MATTWOLVES 3]

Happy Weekend folks..if such a thing does exist...if it doesn't...it does now

Better output this morning from the models and it looks to me that things could start to get more exciting beyond mid month! 

Worth pointing out that I noticed Judah Cohen had pointed out a week ago that even though the models were not backing up his thoughts,that Heights around the kara seas would begin to put the PV under stress...hence the possibility of a split! Obviously this ain't done and dusted but it proves that sometimes your knowledge and experience can sometimes pick up on events that the models are not currently seeing!

We need this output too continue for a couple of days,then perhaps the met will start thinking about a change to there write up.

All in all...it looks better...mind you it couldn't have looked any worse a few days back! 

Edit.. Ali...Great minds think a like mate  

Edited January 7, 2023 by MATTWOLVES

[Vikos]

7 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

If there is a decent chance of an SSW, or at least signs similar to that of the EC then we may see a wording change from the METO fir the long range. As for the 8-12 day range it would be nice to see that improve even further on the 12zs, and possible brought forward a day or 2!!

 

Something like this around day 10 maybe. 

What kind of SSW do you mean? Minor warming or major warming with wind reversal (wich i don’t find any signs for in the next future)

regards

[Derecho]

Could we get a January of contrasting halves? Some more interesting features popping up around D8-D10, most notably this big high to the NE of Scandi:

EC has the high a bit further away but the GFS 06z has it moving westwards, there would be some really cold air moving along underneath that so you'd hope it would be onto something... but it is the GFS.

A polar maritime airmass moving over us is possible into around D8+ though whether its just a transient bit of cold in an overall westerly pattern... or more of a northerly like the GFS 00z is unclear.

[Eagle Eye]

Don't have much to add onto the posts at the moment, keep them coming...

Hopefully, we keep seeing the SSW chance uptrending due to the Ural Block etc...

 

[blizzard81]

23 minutes ago, Eagle Eye said:

Don't have much to add onto the posts at the moment, keep them coming...

Hopefully, we keep seeing the SSW chance uptrending due to the Ural Block etc...

 

A lazy day today then Eagle Eye

[CoventryWeather]

Nice to see some interesting model runs.. about time too. 

Most annoying thing is I have mock exams for the next 2 weeks, so I'll have no time looking at the charts!

Enjoy the weekend all!

[carinthian]

1 hour ago, BLAST FROM THE PAST said:

This can’t continue….one hopes!  However, I feel the models will move more and more towards the amplification and colder conditions, and the plunge NW/SE (even more vertical) of a deep LP (or 2) is the direction of change for me.  Once we get this, several doors of opportunity open.  I think we will get -6 to -8 upper air over us widely and thus snow chances will increase.  I think the type of change I have in mind you are in excellent location.  However, we are still looking towards midmonth and we need to see growing consistency over the next week to gain confidence.  For now it is FI….but it’s not an ‘unrealistic’ or ‘unreasonable’ evolution.  If a Jan 1987 popped up one feels we could ignore that.

 

BFTP

The cold to the NE is not going far away and could intensify over the coming weeks. Usually in the mildest of winters , the Atlantic jet blasts this cold block well into Siberia. However, this has not been the case so far this winter with parts of Northern and Central Scandinavia locked into a very cold set up. Eventually, a squeeze /undercut of the Atlantic lows into Western Europe should occur and maybe sooner than later. Could be interesting how things developing on this front during the coming week.

C

[alexisj9]

8 hours ago, Penrith Snow said:

Yes better looking cold zonal charts but if I remember these were being shown a week ago only for the idea to turn to dust.

I will want to see the pattern maintained into next week before I get the bunting out.

Andy

Not really it was a much weaker signal, these ones are steaper and colder, bring decent uppers much further south. Hopefully instead of diluting they sharpen up, and may be even turn northerly. Just needs the high to the west to move east a little.

[fromey]

I don’t know if these have been posted but it’s a bit of a shift 

[ItNeverSnowsInWindsor]

5 hours ago, prolongedSnowLover said:

We need some support in the next runs!

Still not much support on the 6z run.

Will the cold mer theme be maintained in  this evenings output ?

[MATTWOLVES 3]

Do I detect some colder clustering amongst the mogreps 6z ens? Quite possibly...Will be interesting to view the 12s later.

On a lighter note I decided to treat my Dad to fish and chips for the first time in years...he used to love going out to fetch them on a Saturday..but being housebound put a stop to all that...bless him....over £10 for fish and chips! I just showed them this price list.....and they said wow....they will go out of business! I said no! It's a price list from 1976 the year of the great summer...and that's the very reason why many of you are going out of business!! Shocking!