Model Output Discussion - New Year and Beyond

[Purga]

Stubborn heights over Europe as per usual - Alpine nightmare. Not to mention any hope of UK cold.

Ipso facto

 

Edited January 8, 2023 by Purga

[ItNeverSnowsInWindsor]

12 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

Yes please GEM 

Got more chance of winning the lottery than seeing that chart verify!

[bluearmy]

3 minutes ago, Purga said:

Stubborn heights over Europe as per usual - Alpine nightmare

Only in the ante narnia land that is the gfs model …… all the other models say snow is coming to the alps 

 

 

 

[MATTWOLVES 3]

2 minutes ago, prolongedSnowLover said:

Got more chance of winning the lottery than seeing that chart verify!

Highly unlikely to be millions to 1 is it!

Cold....dry

Mild....wet

Cold...snow.

Mild..dry

I would make it a 1 in 4 chance

[Ali1977]

The GFS mean looks better at T192 compared to earlier, better tilt for a more potent PM Flow!! 
 

Bottom image the 12z , notice the heights in the Atlantic aren’t hooked back in towards the Med forcing more WAA north 

Edited January 8, 2023 by Ali1977

[BlueHedgehog074]

Sounds like a fair well-rounded summary, Phil nw. Possibly could squeeze something a little bit wintry outside of areas (Northern and Western high ground) exposed to the chilly Polar Maritime flows from chances of disturbances or smallish Lows mixing into colder flows from the West and North. Probably though nothing more than that (but a more unexpected widespread snowfall could pop about). It does feel like fairly standard fair.

More amplification of the mid Atlantic/Azores High Pressure along with less in the way of lower heights to the North of the ridging could of course lead to something more notable for our part. But must admit, can’t currently see any cool to colder shots being long lasting. Not yet anyway.

Just have to keep remembering that our Winter’s aren’t full of Northern blocking year after year. Same goes with the deep cold that can accompany the Northern blocking. To further add, also, that some decent snowy spells can occur without the need of deep cold and strong blocking to our North (which am sure has been brought up a few times before in the past). 

Edited January 8, 2023 by DiagonalRedLine

[Catacol]

2 hours ago, Bricriu said:

Can we have confidence in the GFS strat output considering how poor its output  has been for the troposphere.? Although the Exeter update is a concern, it must be that Glosea is seeing no signs of a SSW. Is it possible if this is being led by the trop that it might not pick up on a possible SSW yet? I guess as others have said the next ec46 may reveal a lot. 

Correct. Strat forecasting in general terms is a bit more accurate than trop….except when we are looking at a potential strat disruption event that hangs very definitely on trop output. And in that scenario, and supported by the literature, SSW events simply do not get spotted until they are within 2 weeks range, and even then the outer reaches of the 2 week envelope can be very foggy.

We are playing a hobby game based on probability. If there was a forecaster out there who had 95% accuracy at 2 - 4 weeks then this forum would close and we would go about our business bathed in weather certainty. I do find the downbeat gloom of some posts irritating at times because there seem to be some posters who crave snowy nirvana certainty and many who seem unaware that we are constantly riding a 25-1 outsider when we are plotting paths to UK cold. For my own part I nailed the BFTE about 2 weeks out in 2018. Meanwhile the December just gone was an epic forecasting fail as the cold pattern fell apart so the less said about my cold final third call for December the better! In between times some near misses, some roughly accurate calls. Goes with the territory.

But I do think we can work to understand when our horse is at the back of the pack as we turn into the home strait and have no chance….and those other times when we are sitting in third, whip just coming out and with a fair chance of success. We are rounding a bend as we move through this week and the interpretation of those with a bit of knowledge, and increasingly backed up by NWP output, is that we are in the lead pack with a chance of hitting the front for this next phase of winter. We could, of course, fall at the final fence. C’est La Vie.

No change really in the output over the last 12 hours but to keep it relevant I’ll post the GEM 240h for this afternoon. GEM out ahead of the GFS in the stats and I think hasn’t been half bad this winter as a back up to ECM given we don’t get UKMO medium/long output. If ECM shows something similar in 90mins time perhaps the gloomy comments will cease!

Edited January 8, 2023 by Catacol

[LRD]

24 minutes ago, Purga said:

Stubborn heights over Europe as per usual - Alpine nightmare. Not to mention any hope of UK cold.

Ipso facto

 

Yep and even the other models are now showing some subtle hints that they've been underplaying Iberian Heights the last few days too (I may be wrong on that perception ans I've not looked at the models that much over the last 2 or 3 days). Happens a lot but hopefully, this time, a blip and/or it is just my imagination

The PM flow that we might get early next week will probably get watered down to next to nothing too. It usually does. Met Office not seeing anything wintry for next week either.

[Cleeve Hill]

32 minutes ago, Purga said:

Stubborn heights over Europe as per usual - Alpine nightmare. Not to mention any hope of UK cold.

Ipso facto

 

Hmm. 50+ CM expected in French alps between now and Wed 11th. Freezing level around 1000M. 

see snowforecast.com 

[Rain All Night]

On 06/01/2023 at 21:20, Atleastitwillbemild said:

Is there any way of getting this to pause or slow down so you can see its progression a bit slower?

I meant to send this two days ago so who knows if you will see it now, but I meant to say that the site that the poster you quoted had pasted from is this one, which only has GFS/GEFS charts for free, and the poster had pasted an EPS chart...

https://www.weathermodels.com/index.php?r=site%2Fpreview&mode=animator&set=GFS Energy&area=Europe&param=2-m Temperature Anom&offset=0&thumbs=1

However there are other sites offering similar charts for free, such as the one below, so you can view the animation for yourself at whichever speed you like...

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=eps&region=eu&pkg=T2ma&runtime=2023010706&fh=108

[Catacol]

13 minutes ago, LRD said:

Yep and even the other models are now showing some subtle hints that they've been underplaying Iberian Heights the last few days too (I may be wrong on that perception ans I've not looked at the models that much over the last 2 or 3 days). Happens a lot but hopefully, this time, a blip and/or it is just my imagination

The PM flow that we might get early next week will probably get watered down to next to nothing too. It usually does. Met Office not seeing anything wintry for next week either.

Very definite draining away of Iberian/Italian heights on the EPS. Far enough out, of course, to change.

[bluearmy]

The gem at day 10 has strong support from its 0z ens. There are a few gefs on the same page although maybe a little less amplified in general. There was a fairly substantial eps cluster too. Fits in with that 17/20 Jan period for a decent cold snap 

 

Edited January 8, 2023 by bluearmy

[Allseasons-Si]

The 12z gefs mean is flatlining close to the -5 line

here for my local and is certainly colder than last night 18z...

[Frosty.]

Hey Guys, I’m only interested in cold / snow in winter!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!.. is this even  winter?…I think not!..anyway, P5 GEFS 12z would help a bit! … I’m thinking we don’t have winters anymore, just a perpetual autumn before jumping into spring.. anyone agree?

 

 

[Allseasons-Si]

GEM op and control at day ten.

will the ECM follow suit?

[LRD]

1 minute ago, Catacol said:

Very definite draining away of Iberian/Italian heights on the EPS. Far enough out, of course, to change.

Thanks Catacol

I've bolded a bit of your post to say that's exactly my concern. That the nearer we get to the time of forecast falls in southern and/or central European high pressure, the forecast changes and we find that we have ended up with heights hanging on. Over the years, Euro heights have proved far more stubborn than mid/long range forecasting advertises

Fingers crossed it doesn't happen this time

[MATTWOLVES 3]

Do I detect an Estly and scandy Heights deep into the abyss!

Come on folks let's chase the next cold spell down.

Chins up...stiff upper lip..cup of Earl grey holding the cup with ya little finger.

For me it's colder next Weekend with potential wintry showers...The potential gains traction towards months end with February being the Ace in the pack! Mind you I've a feeling early March could bring rewards this Year.

Spring on hold til the solstice this time around..

 

 

 

[Ali1977]

Looking good at T144 

[cheshire snow]

Cold air incoming at day seven.

[Lampostwatcher]

ECM 12z saying yes 🌨❄

[Cold Winter Night]

EC 12z is not interested in the GFS shenanigans and sides with GEM and UKMO at 168h
Now watch that ridge and trough...

[January Snowstorm]

Looks poor at 192hrs as everything flattens out! Reliable to 168hrs looks fine

[frosty ground]

Just now, January Snowstorm said:

Looks poor at 192hrs as everything flattens out! Reliable to 168hrs looks fine

Yep ecm following the GFS after an initial PM shot with heights to the south stinger and a more westerly feed

[Eagle Eye]

-VE EAMT event towards next week retracting the pacific jet but the intial state of the PNA and the MJO Tropical forcing, suggests a movement towards a North Pacific trough connecting up with the Aleutian low. This may mean that we see the +VE Ural Block/BK development but also some sort of ridge/blocking over the US to mid Atlantic region and its important where that forms for our Troposphere pattern for late January/early February. Given the forecasting range, its fairly unlikely to be forecasted well yet. Its good that the signal for the Ural Block + Aleutian Low remains.

So Tropical forcing and the development around the Scandi-Ural region will be extremely important going going February but some PM air in the shorter-term is gaining some decent backing.

Clear signs of that strong atlantic +VE heights development and the resultant flow that'll likely bring cold to the UK though how strong is yet to be decided.

Just a short update for now .

 

[Ali1977]

4 minutes ago, January Snowstorm said:

Looks poor at 192hrs as everything flattens out! Reliable to 168hrs looks fine

Just needs to ridge between Greeny and Canada now, it’s still cold at 192 

 

It tried 

Edited January 8, 2023 by Ali1977