Model Output Discussion - New Year and Beyond

[MJB]

35 minutes ago, on the coast said:

ECM looking toasty later on. Quick thaw on the way for any laying snow.

Fortunately that won't trouble you  

[Bricriu]

13 minutes ago, stodge said:

Evening all

Three to four chilly if not cold days may be the best next week has to offer - we'll see.

There seems general cross-model agreement on the heights building back into western Europe from around T+180 and in a sense we're back to square one.

GFS 12Z Control builds a huge Scandinavian HP in far FI but with little or no cold air. The 10 HPA temperatures show the stratosphere still under strong pressure but all that's happening is the PV is staying in its usual place and the northern arm of the jet is too strong to allow heights to build into Scandinavia leaving us in a mild  Atlantic-driven flow to the end of the month.

Plenty of winter yet of course.

There is a huge Scandinavian high in far FI, but then you say the jet is too strong to  allow heights to build into Scandinavia?

[MJB]

28 minutes ago, jellybaby1969 said:

It's always going to get mixed out further south ..there is no deep cold

You do not need deep cold for snow 

[Tim Bland]

3 minutes ago, MJB said:

You do not need deep cold for snow 

Indeed. Sub 528 dam, 0c or lower DPs and -6 uppers. Much rather have this and heavy precipitation than it be dry and cold, it may well be marginal for coastal areas or very low lying areas but it’s more exciting for me to have a ticket to a 15cm prize draw than an almost guarantee of cold and dry

[bluearmy]

This eps suite much stronger on the ural blocking 

if it’s on the same page in the morning then will be interesting to see if the ec46 zonal strat  flow responds 

[stodge]

9 minutes ago, Bricriu said:

There is a huge Scandinavian high in far FI, but then you say the jet is too strong to  allow heights to build into Scandinavia?

No, I didn't. I said the Control had a large Scandinavian HP which it does but the OP keeps a stronger jet and we end up with a mid-latitude feature.

Perhaps the sunspot activity is driving all this.

 

[TSNWK]

3 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

This eps suite much stronger on the ural blocking 

if it’s on the same page in the morning then will be interesting to see if the ec46 zonal strat  flow responds 

This a positive for UK coldies?

[Daniel*]

EPS mean not good offering support for op but indicates temps recover to above average away from Scotland on 20th that is 9 days from now. Seemingly a big turnaround is needed but there is still time, if unlikely at this stage.

[nick sussex]

Not sure about the ECMs snow event .

Its precip charts often overplay snow potential at that range . I really don’t want to come across as miserable but I certainly would be dubious about this until much closer to the time .

A shallower feature would be better . It’s very unusual though to see a low deepen in this manner running more ese.

On the flip side a shallower feature would likely mean it corrects south .

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

 

what’s the ECM on?  Anyway, my thoughts….plunging LPs NNW/SSE and more than one….we have that.  Cold with snow ‘for many’.

Now interestingly I anticipate a brief mild blip around 21st before another ‘plunge’ to our east 22nd onwards.  
 

However, I have a concern for a seriously dry/mild Feb after 1st week.  I’m hoping that if the Xmas signal was wrong, this will be too….bit mild signal is inevitably always stronger

 

 BFTP

[Mark wheeler]

1 hour ago, Tim Bland said:

Incoming!!  

Oh Lordy , bank , bank , bank please .

[swebby]

15 minutes ago, TSNWK said:

This a positive for UK coldies?

It's a potential feature that is assumed could help trigger a sudden strat warming (SSW), which in turn may translate to a reversal of the usual flows in the troposphere in the polar region = high latitude blocking. No guarantee of cold from any of that, but some of the UKs bigger winter events, especially Easterlies, have come off the back of a SSW.

Edited January 11, 2023 by swebby

[northwestsnow]

10 minutes ago, Daniel* said:

EPS mean not good offering support for op but indicates temps recover to above average away from Scotland on 20th that is 9 days from now. Seemingly a big turnaround is needed but there is still time, if unlikely at this stage.

And award for the lead balloon post of the evening goes to.....

Of course this was only going to be 2 to 3 day  cold window.

Let's hope the strat events help us out  into Feb..

[Mike Poole]

ECM clusters, get ready for the tidal wave of uncertainty, T120-T168:

So, the potential for snow from the cold plunge then…well we don’t want cluster 6, but the others - we probably don’t want the deep lows so I’d pin my hopes on clusters 2 and 3 here for real interest, but 1 and 4 also good.  

T192-T240:

Two stories here, UK stuck in the trough, signal for heights to NE on all, but most likely to affect us cluster 2.

T264+:

A bit of a real dog’s breakfast there really, except to say it isn’t zonal.

[bluearmy]

i think we have the biggest opportunity since early December for some scandi ridging in two weeks time 

[northwestsnow]

1 minute ago, bluearmy said:

i think we have the biggest opportunity since early December for some scandi ridging in two weeks time 

Well...

Let's hope so...

[Rain All Night]

Although the writing is on the wall, it is nice to see MOGREPS still not in too much of a hurry to bring the South back to business as usual, and also offers some prospect of avoiding the warm sector on Monday:

Edited January 11, 2023 by RainAllNight

[MJB]

Met update today holds much interest I say 

[Ali1977]

4 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

i think we have the biggest opportunity since early December for some scandi ridging in two weeks time 

Then we have this starting at day 10 - all in all plenty going on for coldies!  

[Mark wheeler]

Mogreps 12z . Certainly shows the colder spell coming up , interesting to see a slight warm up further north later on . Perhaps indicating more fronts approaching and thus more precipitation here . Further south looks more marginal for snow and we need the dice to land on two sixes or perhaps a 6 and a 5 if we are to see snow. 

Edited January 11, 2023 by Mark wheeler

[Nick F]

10 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

And award for the lead balloon post of the evening goes to.....

Of course this was only going to be 2 to 3 day  cold window.

Let's hope the strat events help us out  into Feb..

Certainly signs of a weakening of ZMZ winds at 10 hPa from GFS towards late month, a few ens members reaching 0 m/s, but a long way off yet to have any confidence in a SSW later this winter.

Closer in time, despite T850s nowt to right home about next Tuesday and DPs marginal, heights are rather low (low freezing level) - so snow more likely to fall at lower elevations - especially if heavy precipitation. But cold enough surface temps to settle another issue, especially if windy with that deep low on EC, as may be too much mixing and less evaporative cooling than with lighter winds to lower the temp to 0C. Likely will be very marginal away from high ground.

 

Still, expect changes, GFS doesn't have that deepening low drop SE like EC or UKMO. A very active and developmental pattern early next week, with potential for lows diving SE to explosively deepen if they move on to the cold side of the strong jet diving SE and phase favourably with the jet streaks and shortwaves. UK on cold side of the jet, so these lows will bring snow for some.

[mulzy]

17 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

i think we have the biggest opportunity since early December for some scandi ridging in two weeks time 

Yes showing up nicely on the ensemble means.

[Daniel*]

Revisiting early next week has trended 1C colder from 00z. 

London 

Manchester 

Edinburgh 

[markw2680]

So as it stands early next week is set to get pretty chilly with a decent chance of snow around, in many areas if showers are heavy enough but more especially further north.

Personally if we get some decent snow out of it I couldn’t give a rats ass if it gets milder a few days later.

when we had the cold spell in December it was mainly dry and frosty for weeks, give me a 3 day snap with loads of snow any day.

Hopefully things will firm up over the next couple of days for a decent snap

[Rain All Night]

Is this possibly maybe tentative support for an Azores high rain shield for me after the PM party?

Edited January 11, 2023 by RainAllNight