2023 Tornado Events, Outbreaks and Chat

[Eagle Eye]

Just to show you what we could see. Latest HRRR brings damaging hail and I imagine a tornado at some point right through Oklahoma City.

Contam sounding in Oklahoma City but all the same it's a very loaded gun scenario this.

Edited April 19, 2023 by Eagle Eye

[Eagle Eye]

Newcastle is a tornado magnet. Likely developing tornado near Newcastle.

 

[Kirkcaldy Weather]

Seen the upgrade to Enhanced but don't expect most of us imagined this unfolding. Beastly wedge Cole Oklahoma 

 

[Eagle Eye]

 

 

 

 

 

[The Tall Weatherman]

I can’t believe this happened in a 5% non hatched tornado risk. The animations of these supercells is more common In high risk events.

 

[matty40s]

 

 

[Eagle Eye]

Possible violent cone tornado near Cole

 

 

[Metwatch]

 

 

 

 

 

 

Edited April 21, 2023 by Metwatch

[Allseasons-Si]

WOW!!!

 

Edited April 23, 2023 by Allseasons-si

[Eagle Eye]

"Synopsis...

The primary mid/upper-level feature influencing this forecast is a compact cyclone -- apparent in moisture-channel imagery over the southern Rockies and centered near SKX. A trough extends from the low southwestward across southeastern AZ, and northeastward to near IML. The 500-mb low should move southeastward across northeastern NM today, then by 00Z, pivot eastward to the TX Panhandle, with through southwestward past ELP. By 12Z, the perturbation should devolve to an open-wave trough with primary vorticity lobe over OK, and trough across west-central/far west TX. A broad area of difluent, somewhat cyclonic flow will spread across the southern Plains to its southeast. Several embedded, convectively induced/ reinforced vorticity maxima will eject eastward across the Arklatex and Mid-South regions ahead of this feature. A continuing fetch of strong upper-level westerlies -- with weak/embedded perturbations -- will overlie the northern Gulf and FL. One such weak shortwave trough is apparent over the north- central/northeastern Gulf, associated with a few thunderstorms southeast of LA. This feature should reach peninsular FL by this evening. At the surface, a quasistationary front was drawn at 11Z across north-central FL and the northern Gulf, becoming a warm front over southeast through central TX, to a low between SWW-LBB. A cold front extended from there southwestward over the lower Pecos Valley. The cold front will shift eastward over central/north TX through the period, while the warm front shifts northward today to near the DFW Metroplex, before being overtaken by convection. The FL frontal segment should remain near its present position

. ...North TX and vicinity...

Widely scattered to scattered thunderstorms are expected to occur along and south of the warm front this afternoon, with all severe modes possible. The main concern at first may be large to giant hail, with ideal conditions progged for generation of hailstones above 3 inches in diameter from any sustained supercell(s). As early supercells move east-southeastward to southeastward across the region into greater low-level moisture and weak CINH along/south of the effective warm front, two processes should occur in tandem: 1. Enlargement of low-level hodographs during late afternoon into early evening, 2. Growth in convective coverage, ultimately leading to a line of strong-severe thunderstorms moving southeastward across central and northeast TX. The resulting QLCS this evening will be mainly a damaging-wind threat with potential for significant/65+ kt gusts, but with a couple tornadoes and isolated large hail still possible. While supercells still are present -- and especially along the warm front where low-level shear/vorticity will be maximized -- so will be the potential for tornadoes (some possibly capable of significant/EF2+ damage). Uncertainties remain on mesoscale specifics of boundary position and mode-transition timing, but both giant hail and tornadoes are possible with the boundary potentially lying across some part of the Metroplex. North of the boundary, isolated large hail still may occur from the most vigorous elevated convection across mainly the Red River region into parts of OK/AR. This includes an ongoing, elevated cluster of thunderstorms over northwest TX and southwestern OK, which should move astride the Red River across southern OK and parts of north TX through the day. A corridor of 2500-3500 J/kg peak/preconvective MLCAPE should develop east of the cold front and southwest of the warm front through central TX, narrowing northward. Strong veering of flow with height -- especially near the warm front -- will contribute to 45-60 kt effective-shear magnitudes. The largest hodograph sizes and SRH for surface-based, effective-inflow parcels should be along the warm front, but still will favor supercells in the warm sector. Once the modal transition occurs, wind and tornado potential will be maximized near embedded mesocirculations and bow/LEWP features. ...FL Peninsula... Scattered, mainly afternoon to early-evening thunderstorms are expected across central and south FL, offering large hail and isolated damaging to severe gusts. The greatest convective coverage potential and most-favorable environmental parameter space for significantly severe hail appears to be over portions of central/ east-central FL this afternoon, where supercells with significant hail (2+ inches diameter) may occur. Isolated damaging/severe downbursts also may occur, and a tornado is possible with help from storm-scale/boundary processes. Initial foci for convection will be sea-breeze boundaries near the East Coast, and farther inland from the Gulf. With strong surface heating and abundant low-level moisture expected to minimize MLCINH by midday, outflow and differential-heating boundaries also may support storm initiation throughout the afternoon. The coldest midlevel temperatures and steepest low/middle-level lapse rates are expected over central FL, associated with a remnant Mexican EML plume. With surface dewpoints in the upper 60s to low 70s F, preconvective MLCAPE should reach 2500-3000 J/kg (locally higher). Low-level flow will be weak, keeping hodographs small for the most part. However, flow will veer strongly with height beneath favorable mid/upper winds of the subtropical jet, contributing to 40-50-kt effective-shear magnitudes. This, along with boundary interactions, will support supercell potential to maximize updraft strength and efficiency of hail production. Hail-growth models applied to forecast soundings indicate potential for hailstones 2-3 inches in diameter, perhaps from multiple storms. The overall convective coverage/intensity should decrease markedly after about 03Z, when outflow coverage is maximized and nocturnal boundary-layer stabilization is underway."

Dallas hail and tornadoes threat and a rare Florida significant hail threat.

[WeatherArc]

 

Yeah thats gonna be a problem. If a storm can track along the warm front and remain discrete it will produce tornadoes. Environment is pretty supportive of sig tors-Large cape (4000+j/kg) and  very large 3cape (225 j/kg) combined with decently sized hodographs and eff inflow 300+ Definitely gonna be interesting to see how this evolves tonight.

[Eagle Eye]

1 minute ago, WeatherArc said:

 

Yeah thats gonna be a problem. If a storm can track along the warm front and remain discrete it will produce tornadoes. Environment is pretty supportive of sig tors-Large cape (4000+j/kg) and  very large 3cape (225 j/kg) combined with decently sized hodographs and eff inflow 300+ Definitely gonna be interesting to see how this evolves tonight.

That looks to me like the amount of actually available CAPE for Storm building will be quite high as well. Often Texas just seems to need CAPE for a sig tor so to have the shear backing it as well with the very Oklahoma type hodographs. Only a few cells are likely to be surface based but all it needs is one to be surface based and a sig tor is certainly possible.

[Kirkcaldy Weather]

Shouldn't discredit the conditions in Florida, RARE big hailers there

 

[Allseasons-Si]

Some spin up on Jason cooley's feed now.

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[Eagle Eye]

Big momentum surge just east of Waco likely to produce a tornado soon Classic FFD with a weakly occluding RFD and then surge likely soon stretching the FFD slightly to the south more from a right moving Supercell.

Edited April 26, 2023 by Eagle Eye

[Eagle Eye]

6 hours ago, Eagle Eye said:

Big momentum surge just east of Waco likely to produce a tornado soon Classic FFD with a weakly occluding RFD and then surge likely soon stretching the FFD slightly to the south more from a right moving Supercell.

Nothing much really happened eventually. That specific Supercell was tornado warned for about the next half an hour but radar indicated and I don't think anyone actually saw a tornado in there just a very low wall cloud.

[Weather-history]

What are the price of vehicle windscreens in the US? Number of times I have seen stormchasers windscreens cracked by giant hail and this is just stormchasers. 

[Eagle Eye]

Texas just had to didn't it.

[WeatherArc]

Very interested to get peoples opinions on may. imo this looks like it could be one of the most active mays in a few years, lots of models starting to point towards an increasingly active month starting on the 5th and continuing until possibly early June, Im sure we will have breaks and quiet periods but overall im starting to get the feeling that this month is going to be very interesting. Looking like most of the activity will be in the classic tornado alley as well, with the peak of activity in Texas, Kansas, Nebraska and especially Oklahoma. Seems to also be less of a problem with capping as well, might just be a model thing but interesting nonetheless.  

A day that is really starting to get my attention is Sunday 7th, still a little far out for exact details but i wont be surprised if we see a 15% severe soon. Most models want to eject at least a shortwave through with the GFS looking like a more large scale and classic tornado alley outbreak "ski jump" trough ejection-it seems to have relatively large ensemble support so this solution will have to be watched.

 

The 500mb winds rounding the base of that trough arent the strongest right now, will have to see what happens as we get closer. Additionally 850mb winds are lacking but this is likely due to models not doing well with surface low development.

Had a quick look through ensembles and there are some interesting members, over 5000 j/kg of mixed layer cape shown here.

On 27/04/2023 at 07:10, Eagle Eye said:

Nothing much really happened eventually. That specific Supercell was tornado warned for about the next half an hour but radar indicated and I don't think anyone actually saw a tornado in there just a very low wall cloud.

Yeah im a little confused why it didn't produce it had a clear inflow, pretty favourable environment soundings and no destructive storm interactions. Maybe some low level inversion or lack of 3cape/moisture?  

 

 

 

 

 

[Eagle Eye]

4 minutes ago, WeatherArc said:

 

Yeah im a little confused why it didn't produce it had a clear inflow, pretty favourable environment soundings and no destructive storm interactions. Maybe some low level inversion or lack of 3cape/moisture?

I suspect the low-level wind shear was quite weak, that one sort of rode the boundary I think at it's height so may have been slightly elevated.

6 minutes ago, WeatherArc said:

Very interested to get peoples opinions on may. imo this looks like it could be one of the most active mays in a few years, lots of models starting to point towards an increasingly active month starting on the 5th and continuing until possibly early June, Im sure we will have breaks and quiet periods but overall im starting to get the feeling that this month is going to be very interesting. Looking like most of the activity will be in the classic tornado alley as well, with the peak of activity in Texas, Kansas, Nebraska and especially Oklahoma. Seems to also be less of a problem with capping as well, might just be a model thing but interesting nonetheless.  

A day that is really starting to get my attention is Sunday 7th, still a little far out for exact details but i wont be surprised if we see a 15% severe soon. Most models want to eject at least a shortwave through with the GFS looking like a more large scale and classic tornado alley outbreak "ski jump" trough ejection-it seems to have relatively large ensemble support so this solution will have to be watched.

 

The 500mb winds rounding the base of that trough arent the strongest right now, will have to see what happens as we get closer. Additionally 850mb winds are lacking but this is likely due to models not doing well with surface low development.

Had a quick look through ensembles and there are some interesting members, over 5000 j/kg of mixed layer cape shown here.

 

May will pretty much always produce something and the omega block was always pretty flimsy, theoretically late May is the best MJO support for the general setup. I suspect the quite mobile pattern will favour an uptick in activity beyond the one or two events showing at the moment. It's too far out to see at the moment but if 850's are lacking then tornadic development isn't favoured really. You typically want strong 850's and can deal with relatively weak 500's (I think that's how the Rolling Fork tornado setup happened) but this is something that we need more modelling on. The June seasonal models that have been showing up on Twitter show a good setup for the Dakotas across to Indiana (upper Midwest or greater plains?) and perhaps June will be more classical June tornado's compared to years after 2014 where it seems all over the place.

[WeatherArc]

Glad to see the NAM is back to its usual self, suspect it may be overdoing instability and moisture by just a bit here 

 

20 hours ago, Eagle Eye said:

I suspect the low-level wind shear was quite weak, that one sort of rode the boundary I think at it's height so may have been slightly elevated.

May will pretty much always produce something and the omega block was always pretty flimsy, theoretically late May is the best MJO support for the general setup. I suspect the quite mobile pattern will favour an uptick in activity beyond the one or two events showing at the moment. It's too far out to see at the moment but if 850's are lacking then tornadic development isn't favoured really. You typically want strong 850's and can deal with relatively weak 500's (I think that's how the Rolling Fork tornado setup happened) but this is something that we need more modelling on. The June seasonal models that have been showing up on Twitter show a good setup for the Dakotas across to Indiana (upper Midwest or greater plains?) and perhaps June will be more classical June tornado's compared to years after 2014 where it seems all over the place.

Ah thanks  yeah it did look a little elevated from pictures. Completely agree, i dont know much about MJO support but i have seen posts on twitter suggesting the back half of May will be better. I usually find lower-res models dont do 850s amazingly might just be me but the CAMS tend to usually ramp them up 2-3 days out. I believe Rolling Fork was just a very high overall shear situation with strong 500s and very strong 850s (Although I may be wrong i cant find any sounding data from it)  Hopefully June does perform well, like you said in recent years its not been great.

[Eagle Eye]

10 hours ago, WeatherArc said:

 

 

Ah thanks  yeah it did look a little elevated from pictures. Completely agree, i dont know much about MJO support but i have seen posts on twitter suggesting the back half of May will be better. I usually find lower-res models dont do 850s amazingly might just be me but the CAMS tend to usually ramp them up 2-3 days out. I believe Rolling Fork was just a very high overall shear situation with strong 500s and very strong 850s (Although I may be wrong i cant find any sounding data from it)  Hopefully June does perform well, like you said in recent years its not been great.

Rolling Fork wasn't the most high end situation initially but as night fell the low-level jet did ramp up and I was wrong, it appesrs the low-level jet did as well. The storm relative helicity was very favourable and the hodos were veering.

Proximity sounding

[Raindrops]

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A Slight Risk of Severe Thunderstorms is Forecast Today and/or Tonight

Edited May 5, 2023 by Raindrops

[Allseasons-Si]

 

[Allseasons-Si]