2023 Tornado Events, Outbreaks and Chat

[Allseasons-Si]

4 minutes ago, Raindrops said:

Absolutely beautiful.

 

It's like a bloody Hurricane,and yes it does look lovely that.

[Raindrops]

2 minutes ago, Allseasons-si said:

It's like a bloody Hurricane,and yes it does look lovely that.

Look at the winds in the centre of the low pressure, notice how the cloud structures are moving in all directions, well I caught the same in Thursdays (11/5/23) storms over the UK/Ireland.

 

[Allseasons-Si]

Love that rear view cam on that cell flashing it's nuts off...

 

[Raindrops]

Just now, Allseasons-si said:

Love that rear view cam on that cell flashing it's nuts off...

 

Watching Vin to, good ending to the day, nearly 14hrs and still going, insane.

Here's to tomorrow...oh wait, it already is tomorrow

[Allseasons-Si]

2 minutes ago, Raindrops said:

Watching Vin to, good ending to the day, nearly 14hrs and still going, insane.

Here's to tomorrow...oh wait, it already is tomorrow

Yes a good night,shame i missed the best bit

catch you all tomoz,...goodnight.

[Allseasons-Si]

Check out Brad arnold's feed,...that lightning

Live Storm Chasing

LIVESTORMCHASING.COM

---

Watch live feeds as storm chasers try to see if their target verifies. Tornadoes, hurricanes, blizzards, and floods - we've got it all and more, live on our site and available as video on demand.

 

[Derecho]

Well the flight to Denver is getting close now, later next week continues to improve on the model output.

[Raindrops]

17 hours ago, Raindrops said:

This low pressure (anticyclone) is a beast.

Correction Cyclonic

[Raindrops]

May 13, 2023 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

SPC AC 131247

Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0747 AM CDT Sat May 13 202

Valid 131300Z - 141200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON OVER PARTS OF IOWA AND WESTERN ILLINOIS...

...SUMMARY...

Thunderstorms associated with a few tornadoes, wind damage and large hail will be possible today in parts of the upper Mississippi Valley.

...IA/IL Vicinity... A weakening upper low is moving northward into southeast SD this morning, with the surface reflection of the low just north of Omaha. By mid afternoon, a surface occluded front will stretch from northwest-southeast IA and provide the focus for thunderstorm development. Backed near-surface winds along and north of the boundary, coupled with ample moisture and pockets of heating, will result in a corridor of favorable environment for organized multicell and occasional supercell storms. Isolated tornadoes may occur, along with large hail and gusty/damaging winds. The risk area is relatively narrow, given the limited area of moderate CAPE and potential for surface-based storms.

...TX/OK... Widespread thunderstorms overnight have overturned the unstable airmass that was present across much of OK and central/east TX. Given the relatively weak flow aloft and poor lapse rates, have left only a MRGL risk from southern OK into southeast TX. The strongest cells in this region may produce gusty winds or perhaps a tornado or two.

...VA/NC... An upper trough is rotating quickly southeastward into New England, with a cold front sagging southward across WV/VA. This boundary will move into a relatively moist airmass over southern VA by mid-afternoon, where most CAM solutions show scattered thunderstorms forming. Strengthening westerly flow aloft and relatively steep boundary-layer lapse rates may result in a few strong wind gusts in the more intense cells. Activity will move into northern NC this evening before weakening.

 

[WeatherArc]

So the day i decided not to look at anything weather related completely over performed  Well is what it is, today also looks pretty good for tors with that 3cape and vorticity crossover in Iowa getting my attention. 15z HRRR also looks decent with 1500+ mlcape, 175 3cape. Effective inflow doesn't look great however.

 

 

Looking back through last nights radar, what a storm

Large rainwrapped, multi-vortex wedge. Seen a few things on twitter suggesting it had an anti-cyclonic satellite for a while.

 

[Raindrops]

UPDATED! Chance of Tornadoes dropped by 5%

May 13, 2023 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

SPC AC 131615

Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1115 AM CDT Sat May 13 2023

Valid 131630Z - 141200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM IOWA INTO CENTRAL ILLINOIS...

...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms associated with a few tornadoes, wind damage and large hail will be possible today from Iowa into central Illinois. Isolated strong to severe storms are also possible across southern Oklahoma and East Texas as well as the eastern Virginia/North Carolina border vicinity.

...IA into the Mid MS Valley... Recent surface analysis places a low about 30 miles northwest of OFK in far northeast NE. A cold front extends southward from this low through central KS and then back southwestward from north-central trough southwest OK. Surface pattern east of the low is a bit more complex, with a warm front extending from the low southeastward across southwest IA and into north-central MO. This warm front intersects a residual stationary boundary near DSM, with this stationary boundary continuing eastward across the OH Valley.

The surface low is forecast to make modest eastward progress throughout the day, with the warm front continuing to move northward as well. However, the presence of the stationary boundary may impeded the northern progression of the warm front somewhat. Expectation is a corridor or mid to upper 60s dewpoints to extend from east-central MO/southern IL northwestward through central IA. This corridor will likely be south of the warm front, but east of dryline-like boundary that is expected to mix eastward with time. Moderate buoyancy is anticipated within this corridor as well, contributing to likely thunderstorm development as the boundary moves eastward.

Southeasterly surface winds will beneath modest westerlies will contribute to moderate deep-layer vertical shear and the potential for more organized storm structures capable of all severe hazards across IA. Strong low-level buoyancy (i.e. 0-3 km MLCAPE greater than 150 J/kg) and low-level vorticity throughout the corridor of southeasterly winds could increase what would otherwise be a low probability tornado risk given anticipated shear magnitudes. Farther south, surface winds will be weaker with a more outflow-dominant storm structure anticipated. Here, some clustering is also possible, with storms then forward-propagating into west-central IL.

...Central/Southern OK...Arklatex...East TX... Widespread thunderstorm development is anticipated this afternoon from central OK eastward into the Arklatex and East TX amid the tropical air mass in place. Vertical shear is weak, limiting storm organization and the overall severe potential. Even so, a few water-loaded downbursts and maybe even a tornado or two remain possible. This low-probability tornado threat appears maximized across southern OK, where greater low-level vorticity is expected.

...VA Tidewater...Northeast NC... An upper trough is rotating quickly southeastward into New England, with a cold front sagging southward across WV/VA. This boundary will move into a relatively moist airmass over southern VA this afternoon, resulting in thunderstorm development. Strengthening westerly flow aloft and relatively steep boundary-layer lapse rates may result in a few strong wind gusts in the more intense cells. Activity will move into northern NC this evening before weakening.

..Mosier/Moore.. 05/13/2023

 

 

[Raindrops]

7 minutes ago, WeatherArc said:

So the day i decided not to look at anything weather related completely over performed  Well is what it is, today also looks pretty good for tors with that 3cape and vorticity crossover in Iowa getting my attention. 15z HRRR also looks decent with 1500+ mlcape, 175 3cape. Effective inflow doesn't look great however.

Yeah, I have done the same last week, came online to see all hell broke loose.

[Raindrops]

Hmm

Mesoscale Discussion 785

 

[WeatherArc]

Interesting, models seem to be playing catch up again with actual surface obs. Looks like that clearing was much more than expected, cape reaching 3000 j/kg now.

 

Edited May 13, 2023 by WeatherArc

[Raindrops]

3 minutes ago, WeatherArc said:

Interesting, models seem to be playing catch up again with actual surface obs. Looks like that clearing was much more than expected, cape reaching 3000 j/kg now.

 

Dew points look great to be honest, I favour those before anything else.

Hold up....next post

Edited May 13, 2023 by Raindrops

[Raindrops]

Mesoscale Discussion 786

Now we're talking

 

Edited May 13, 2023 by Raindrops

[Raindrops]

Annd chasers are waking up, I need to cook firstly, ha.

[Allseasons-Si]

38 minutes ago, Raindrops said:

Annd chasers are waking up, I need to cook firstly, ha.

And i have a sore head after last night with all the booze and staying up while 5am watching Brad arnolds stream with spectacular strobe lightning,..dry eye syndrome doesn't help,my temples are aching

still up for the chase though

severe TS warned cell already and it's only nearly 1pm there.

Edited May 13, 2023 by Allseasons-si

[Raindrops]

2 minutes ago, Allseasons-si said:

And i have a sore head after last night with all the booze and staying up while 5am watching Brad arnolds stream with spectacular strobe lightning,..dry eye syndrome doesn't help,my temples are aching

still up for the chase though

Oddly enough I had a migraine last night, I was surprised I stayed up checking and posting forecasts and watching streams, the sound of the hail was effecting more than anything so silent chasing haha.

[Raindrops]

Tornado Watch on the way

[Allseasons-Si]

3 minutes ago, Raindrops said:

Tornado Watch on the way

Wouldn't surprise me,there's 4 TS warned cells now.

[Raindrops]

1 minute ago, Allseasons-si said:

Wouldn't surprise me,there's 4 TS warned cells now.

They won't let me have it

Watch 223 Status Reports

Watch 223 Status Message has not been issued yet.

 

Never mind I got it haha

Edited May 13, 2023 by Raindrops

[Raindrops]

Tornado Watch 223

 

[Raindrops]

First Tornado warning

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED TORNADO WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA 102 PM CDT SAT MAY 13 2023 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN DES MOINES HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WARNING FOR... NORTHWESTERN MARION COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL IOWA... EAST CENTRAL WARREN COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL IOWA... * UNTIL 145 PM CDT.

[Raindrops]

Jake Heitman Adventures

 

Cloud bases are perfect in some streams so far.