2023 Tornado Events, Outbreaks and Chat

[Allseasons-Si]

Nice Cg on Vince Waelti's feed.

[Allseasons-Si]

Steve Polley @stormchaseguy is chasing an impressive storm live on SevereStudios. Watch Live:

WWW.SEVERESTUDIOS.COM

 

[Allseasons-Si]

Vince Waelti's feed just now,...dodging a bullet.

[Eagle Eye]

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[The Tall Weatherman]

Some absolutely mega bolts from this storm approaching Illinois ️️

 

Edited May 8, 2023 by The Tall Weatherman

[Raindrops]

Interesting days ahead

Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0744 AM CDT Wed May 10 2023

Valid 101300Z - 111200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS NORTHEAST CO...FAR SOUTHWEST NE...FAR NORTHWEST KS...

...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms capable of producing tornadoes, large to very large hail, and severe wind gusts will begin by early to mid-afternoon over a portion of the central High Plains, with a separate area this evening into tonight over the southern High Plains. The most intense storms are expected over northeast Colorado to its border area with Kansas and Nebraska. ...Central High Plains... An upper trough over the Lower CO Valley will move east towards the southern Rockies, with a meridional mid to upper flow pattern across most of the High Plains. A lee cyclone will remain anchored over eastern CO with a warm front extending east across northwest KS to southeast NE, with the southern High Plains dryline mixing east into a portion of west TX. Pronounced differential diabatic heating with abundant insolation south of the front will aid in strengthening baroclinicity across it today. A plume of 50s surface dew points will be maintained to the north of the front amid persistent easterlies in the lowest 1 km. As large-scale ascent preceding the upper trough overspreads the central to southern Rockies and adjacent High Plains, initial convection will develop over the higher terrain by early afternoon. This activity will spread north-northeastward and increase in coverage through early evening. Several supercells are likely along the Front Range from east-central WY to south-central CO with a primary threat of large hail. Potential will exist for a more intense/long-tracked supercell or two developing off the Palmer Divide towards the Denver metro area and South Platte Valley, where rather enlarged/elongated hodographs coupled with the steep mid-level lapse rate environment could support very large hail and tornadoes. A few slow-moving supercells should be sustained near the dryline/front intersection in the CO/KS/NE border area with a similar very large hail and tornado threat. Additional high-based storms will likely form south to the Raton Mesa with primary threats of severe wind gusts and hail. Several clusters should eventually evolve north-northeast from western SD to western KS with a mix of severe wind/hail that should wane towards late evening. ...Southern High Plains... While some severe wind/hail potential is possible during the late afternoon near the Raton Mesa vicinity, the bulk of severe potential is likely to be delayed until late evening into tonight after the dryline retreats west. This will yield increasing moisture timed with a strengthening low-level jet and greater mid-level DCVA ahead of the AZ/NM shortwave trough. With a more westerly component to mid-level flow, especially with southern extent, potential will exist for a few supercells capable of large hail and severe wind gusts. ...Southeast TX and western LA... An MCV over east-central TX should drift towards the Ark-La-Tex today. Regenerative, slow-moving deep convection is ongoing along the upper TX Gulf Coast, with recent scattered development underway to the LA coastal plain. A belt of enhanced low-level winds is consistently progged to spread from just off the TX coast to the Sabine Valley by afternoon. This would yield enlargement to the low-level hodograph in an otherwise weak deep-layer shear regime. However, given the degree of ongoing convection, diurnal destabilization is expected to be muted. Therefore, some potential for transient low-level circulations is anticipated but its unclear whether a more favorable brief tornado and isolated damaging wind corridor can develop. ...Far northern MN into ND... A low-amplitude shortwave impulse will move east atop the northern extent of the upper ridge near the international border through the afternoon/evening. With the northeast plume of steep mid-level lapse rates impinging on the area, MLCAPE of 500-1500 J/kg should be common from central ND into northwest MN. While the bulk of supercell development should be confined to southern Manitoba, multicell clustering may spread/develop across the international border this evening with a threat for isolated damaging wind and severe hail. ..Grams/Marsh..

 

 

Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0103 AM CDT Wed May 10 2023

Valid 111200Z - 121200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTH DAKOTA TO OKLAHOMA...

...SUMMARY... Strong/severe thunderstorms are forecast Thursday across the central Plains vicinity, where large hail can be expected along with locally damaging winds and possibly a couple of tornadoes. ...Synopsis... An upper low is forecast to move slowly northeastward out of the southern Rockies and into the central High Plains region Thursday. Meanwhile, a weaker/lead disturbance is progged to shift slowly northeastward across the Ozarks/lower Mississippi Valley to the Mid Mississippi/Lower Ohio Valley through the period. Elsewhere, northeasterly flow aloft will persist across New England, while ridging prevails across the West Coast states, and from the Southeast northward into the Midwest. At the surface, a weak low initially anticipated over southeastern Colorado will shift slowly northeastward across western Kansas. A weak/secondary low may evolve during the late afternoon/early evening hours across the southwestern Oklahoma vicinity, near a possible bulge in a dryline that will be mixing eastward across the western half of Texas through the afternoon. Elsewhere across the U.S., surface high pressure will largely prevail. ...Plains states from South Dakota to Oklahoma... A rather complex scenario is forecast to evolve across the Plains states, as an upper low within the base of a negatively tilted trough crossing Intermountain West crosses the central High Plains. Southeasterly low-level winds ahead of the upper low and associated surface cyclone should maintain a seasonably moist airmass, which will destabilize through the afternoon in tandem with diurnal heating. At this time, it appears that convective coverage should gradually increase through the afternoon -- northeast of the low across portions of Nebraska, and southeastward in an arcing band from eastern Colorado into western Kansas. With flow veering from southeasterly to southerly and increasing with height, shear will be sufficient to support organized updrafts, and attendant risk for hail and locally damaging winds, and possibly a tornado. This convection should spread northeastward through the afternoon and evening in tandem with the gradual advance of the parent synoptic system, with severe potential eventually waning later in the evening. A more substantial -- through also likely more isolated -- severe risk may evolve across parts of western Oklahoma, near a potential dryline bulge. While capping should hinder development until late afternoon, developing storms would be evolving within an airmass featuring a moist boundary layer beneath steep lapse rates aloft, and with low-level southeasterly flow veering and increasing to southwesterly at mid levels. As a result, a couple of supercell storms are anticipated, which would be capable of producing very large hail, locally damaging wind gusts, and potentially a couple of tornadoes. This risk would spread northeastward through the evening -- across Oklahoma and into southern Kansas. While questions regarding convective coverage argue against upgrading tornado or hail probabilities at this time, such upgrades could be necessary in future outlooks if this scenario becomes more certain, and particularly if it appears that storm coverage may be slightly greater than currently anticipated. ...Southern Mississippi and vicinity... A cluster of thunderstorms -- which may be ongoing at the start of the period near the Mississippi Delta region -- may persist into the afternoon, as the airmass destabilizes. Several CAMs indicate that upscale growth into the afternoon may occur, with a band of storms spreading eastward across the southern half of Mississippi. Though deep-layer flow is progged to remain rather weak, locally gusty/damaging winds could occur with a few of the stronger updrafts, along with marginal hail potential, within this band of storms through the afternoon hours. ..Goss..

 

Edited May 10, 2023 by Raindrops

[Raindrops]

Messed up that post, tried moving the images around, failed, ignore top image.

[Raindrops]

Reed Timmer is live in 2 mins.

Edited May 10, 2023 by Raindrops

[Raindrops]

UPDATED!

Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1229 PM CDT Wed May 10 2023

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CENTRAL OKLAHOMA INTO NORTHWEST KANSAS...

...SUMMARY... Strong/severe thunderstorms are forecast Thursday across the central and southern Plains, where large hail and a few tornadoes can be expected along with locally damaging winds. Isolated hail/damaging winds are also possible across the lower Mississippi Valley into the Southeastern states.

...Synopsis... A progressive upper-level low is noted translating eastward across the lower CO River Valley in mid-morning water-vapor imagery. Recent guidance has generally captured the progression and amplitude of this wave well over the past 12 hours or so, lending reasonably high confidence in its general evolution over the next 48 hours. This feature is expected to become slightly negatively tilted as it ejects into the southern/central High Plains during the 18-21 UTC period Thursday. The rapid deepening of a lee cyclone over the northern TX Panhandle into western KS will coincide with the eastward mixing of a dryline, which should be draped from southwest KS into western OK and northwest TX by mid-afternoon. The severe weather threat will be concentrated along and east/northeast of this boundary as thunderstorms develop by mid to late afternoon.

Along the Gulf Coast, a weak mid-level perturbation, currently over central TX, will migrate east through the day, reaching the lower MS River Valley by peak heating. Thunderstorms developing in the vicinity of this feature will pose a risk for sporadic large hail and damaging winds.

...Central to Southern Plains... Recent surface observations across the southern/central Plains show a plume of rich (mid to upper 60s) dewpoints across much of TX into south-central KS. Poleward moisture advection will increase through Thursday afternoon as the surface low deepens over western KS and the Panhandles region, with widespread mid/upper 60s ahead of the sharpening dryline. Despite the high-quality moisture, mean meridional flow ahead of the low will relegate the steepest mid-level lapse rates (sampled by 12 UTC RAOBs over the High Plains) to western KS. This, in addition to early-morning clouds/showers, will mute the influence of low-level moisture to some degree, but MLCAPE values between 1000-2000 J/kg should be common across the warm sector by midday. 50 knot mid-level flow largely orthogonal to the dryline should overspread KS/OK through the day, resulting in favorable deep-layer shear orientations for discrete convection.

Stronger synoptic and mesoscale lift across west/southwest KS will likely result in an arching band of convection, becoming more broken with southeast extent. A second round of storms is possible during the late afternoon/evening hours as a pocket of cold temperatures aloft associated with the upper low traverses western KS. Further south into OK, a combination of more peripheral synoptic lift and slightly stronger capping will limit convective coverage. T-storm development might be locally maximized across southwest to central OK where guidance has been consistently showing a secondary surface low/dryline bulge in latest guidance that may augment forcing for ascent along the dryline. Thunderstorm potential becomes even more conditional with southward extent along the dryline south of the Red River amid stronger capping and weaker ascent.

Regardless of coverage, thunderstorms developing across southern KS into OK (and possibly northern TX) will likely take on supercellular characteristics given adequate buoyancy, deep-layer shear, strong effective-layer helicity, and favorable dryline/deep-layer shear vector orientations. All hazards will be possible with these storms, including the potential for very large (2 inch or larger) hail and a significant tornado.

...Lower MS Valley into the Southeast... Scattered thunderstorms will likely be ongoing at the start of the period across the lower MS valley in the vicinity of the mid-level perturbation. This activity will likely intensify through the day amid strong diurnal warming ahead of ongoing convection. Additional thunderstorms are expected along the western FL coast along a diurnally-driven sea breeze, as well as across parts of southwest GA. While buoyancy will be somewhat strong (around 2000-2500 J/kg MLCAPE), modest wind shear suggests intense convection may be somewhat short-lived. Consequently, sporadic large hail and damaging winds will be possible with strong updraft pulses through the day, and perhaps along any organized outflows associated with convective clusters.

 

[matty40s]

Reed Timmer is off and running...

 

[Raindrops]

1 minute ago, matty40s said:

Reed Timmer is off and running...

 

On it! Just waiting on other chasers , reports of rotation already in a cell.

[Allseasons-Si]

I am on Reeds feed too

[Raindrops]

2 minutes ago, Allseasons-si said:

I am on Reeds feed too

Reeds gang is here haha...Lets get it!!

 

 

Tornado Watch 207

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 207 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 255 PM CDT Wed May 10 2023

The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a

* Tornado Watch for portions of Northeast and East-Central Colorado, Northwest, Kansas, Southwest Nebraska

* Effective this Wednesday afternoon and evening from 255 PM until 1000 PM CDT.

* Primary threats include... A few tornadoes possible Scattered large hail likely with isolated very large hail events to 3 inches in diameter possible Scattered damaging winds and isolated significant gusts to 75 mph possible

SUMMARY...Severe storms are expected to develop and increase this afternoon, initially near the Colorado Front Range as well as northwest Kansas along/north of a front. This will include supercells capable of large hail and a few tornadoes, along with the potential for damaging winds with storms on the High Plains of eastern Colorado/northwest Kansas/southwest Nebraska.

The tornado watch area is approximately along and 70 statute miles north and south of a line from 10 miles south southwest of Denver CO to 40 miles east southeast of Mccook NE. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU7).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A

Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings.

AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 3 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 65 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 22020.

[Raindrops]

LIVE!

Storm Chaser Vince Waelti

Storm Chaser Brandon Copic

[Allseasons-Si]

Things are getting interesting on Reed timmers feed now...

 

[Raindrops]

3 minutes ago, Allseasons-si said:

Things are getting interesting on Reed timmers feed now...

 

I'm on three chasers including Reed, all are on the same storm, I think they should move south as new storms enter the warning zone, the problem is it's over an hour away, so might as well stay put.

[Allseasons-Si]

1 minute ago, Raindrops said:

I'm on three chasers including Reed, all are on the same storm, I think they should move south as new storms enter the warning zone, the problem is it's over an hour away, so might as well stay put.

Yep they have options on these

The southern storms will catch em up so a win win.

 

[Allseasons-Si]

bandicam 2023-05-11 00-53-33-740.avi

Brad arnolds feed a short while ago

Sorry for the Reed timmers feed audio overlay.

Edited May 11, 2023 by Allseasons-si

[Allseasons-Si]

Again sorry for the audio overlay from Reed timmer's feed but Brad arnold has a second one to his list...

 

 

[Raindrops]

21 minutes ago, Allseasons-si said:

Again sorry for the audio overlay from Reed timmer's feed but Brad arnold has a second one to his list...

 

bandicam 2023-05-11 01-31-08-001.avi 29.2 MB · 1 download  

 

The inflows are amazing in this system (supercell).

live weather map | tornado hq

WWW.TORNADOHQ.COM

---

In a tornado warning? Use our tornado tracker map to see if a tornado might be headed your way.

 

Edited May 11, 2023 by Raindrops

[Metwatch]

Places under those hail cores looks nuts 

[Raindrops]

Connor Croff

1 minute ago, Metwatch said:

Places under those hail cores looks nuts 

Insane

[Raindrops]

Tornado warnings for..

Grant / La Salle

Claiborne / Webster

Grant

De Soto

All the above locations are in the state of LOUISIANA

Tornado HQ

Edited May 11, 2023 by Raindrops

[Raindrops]

UPDATE

May 11, 2023 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

SPC AC 111244

Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0744 AM CDT Thu May 11 2023

Valid 111300Z - 121200Z ...

THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PARTS OF OK AND KS...

...SUMMARY...

Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected this afternoon and evening across parts of the Great Plains centered on Kansas and Oklahoma. The greatest threat for at least a couple strong tornadic supercells should exist across central Oklahoma between 5 to 9 PM CDT.

...Central to southern Great Plains... A pronounced mid-level low over the Raton Mesa will gradually weaken as it drifts into the central High Plains through tonight. This weakening trend will result in a moderate LLJ response this evening into tonight with pockets of 30-45 kt 850-mb winds. Attendant surface cyclone will still diurnally deepen as it similarly drifts from the Raton Mesa into southwest KS today. The dryline will mix into western OK and arc south-southwest into the Edwards Plateau. A north/south-oriented inverted trough/quasi-stationary front will extend north to the western Dakotas.

Dual corridors of thunderstorms are ongoing across a part of southeast CO immediately north of the low and lingering farther southeast near the northwest TX/southwest OK border. This latter area is expected to diminish through midday, resulting in the focused ascent region over southeast CO to spread east into western KS. Low-topped supercells will become increasingly probable midday to early afternoon within a marginally buoyant environment initially. A smaller area of supercell development may also form in the wake of this activity near the CO/KS border later in the afternoon and yield a persistent severe threat into early evening.

A more volatile supercell environment should develop ahead of the dryline in the western to central OK vicinity. A pronounced gradient in MLCAPE is likely by late afternoon to early evening as the most robust boundary-layer heating post-dryline occurs in TX, while a plume of richer moisture advects north ahead of it. This should support MLCAPE approaching 1500 J/kg near the OK/KS border to around 3500 J/kg along the Red River.

While a 500-mb jetlet over the southern High Plains will be in an overall weakening state, its favorably timed eastward translation across the dryline should support sustained supercells. Upper-level wind fields will weaken with height and the bulk of hodograph structure will consist of enlarged curvature from 0-3 km. This suggests supercells should tend towards an HP character with a slow-moving cluster type evolution, especially with southern extent into north TX. Guidance has a bit more consistency with a moderate increase in low-level flow this evening, supporting a strong tornado threat with the most intense supercells over central OK. A small MCS/embedded supercell cluster will probably persist into eastern OK before eventually weakening overnight.

...Lower MS Valley vicinity... A low-amplitude convectively induced shortwave impulse over the Ark-La-Tex will gradually shift east towards the TN Valley through tonight. With stronger boundary-layer heating expected towards the central Gulf Coast, increasingly broad convective development is anticipated into the afternoon ahead of this impulse. Weak deep-layer shear will likely prevail across much of the region. Still, some multicell clustering will offer a threat for sporadic damaging wind gusts along with marginally severe hail into early evening.

..Grams/Kerr.. 05/11/2023

[Derecho]

I'm off on my first chase next week through to the end of May but the output is a bit worrying from a storm chasing perspective. The 12z GFS in particular is anticyclonic throughout next week, though model output beyond Tuesday is uncertain.

Hopefully it changes and I've got plenty of time over there. Fingers crossed the anticyclonic weather eases off the following week.