2023 Tornado Events, Outbreaks and Chat

[Allseasons-Si]

Reed is now live.

 

[Allseasons-Si]

And already have some nice structure...

[Raindrops]

57 minutes ago, Allseasons-si said:

Reed is now live.

 

I'm a bit late to the party

[Raindrops]

6 hours ago, Quicksilver1989 said:

I'm off on my first chase next week through to the end of May but the output is a bit worrying from a storm chasing perspective. The 12z GFS in particular is anticyclonic throughout next week, though model output beyond Tuesday is uncertain.

Hopefully it changes and I've got plenty of time over there. Fingers crossed the anticyclonic weather eases off the following week. 

I'll keep my fingers crossed for you , enjoy your trip, hope to see videos and photos to make us jealous.

[Raindrops]

Tornado Watch 213

Tornado Watch 212

Tornado Watch 211

Mesoscale Discussion 767

[Raindrops]

 

[Raindrops]

 

 

[Raindrops]

Here we go

Omg the Tornado disappears the second I post this haha

 

Edit: rotation is still there

Edited May 12, 2023 by Raindrops

[Raindrops]

 

[Raindrops]

Fox is dominating Reed...awkward.

[Raindrops]

Storm Chaser Vince Waelti

[Raindrops]

Brandons got it

 

[Allseasons-Si]

 

[Raindrops]

11 minutes ago, Allseasons-si said:

 

Meso Mike is on it

Back to Brandon

 

Edited May 12, 2023 by Raindrops

[Allseasons-Si]

[Raindrops]

Just now, Allseasons-si said:

I saw a CG on Vince cam, I said WOOOW so did Vince, got surround sound haha, crazy night

[Derecho]

11 hours ago, Raindrops said:

I'll keep my fingers crossed for you , enjoy your trip, hope to see videos and photos to make us jealous.

Thanks! Wednesday and Thursday are looking more interesting this morning. The weekend unfortunately still looks anticyclonic with a cold shot of air down the eastern USA but I notice the model output tends to push these into the North Atlantic closer to the time.

At one point later next week was also looking anticyclonic but not so much now.

[Raindrops]

6 hours ago, Quicksilver1989 said:

Thanks! Wednesday and Thursday are looking more interesting this morning. The weekend unfortunately still looks anticyclonic with a cold shot of air down the eastern USA but I notice the model output tends to push these into the North Atlantic closer to the time.

At one point later next week was also looking anticyclonic but not so much now.

Ah future forecasting is risky, I tend to use day 1 and 2 or now cast the rest is just predictions, yes useful but not always trustworthy so to speak haha, it's the same for my area of the woods, things can change within 3hrs or even less but I'm sure you're aware of this so...yeah haha, frustrating especially when you have plans. I would limit forecasting to three days max.

Edit:I've just checked future GFS yeah it's not so promising but again don't bet on it

Edited May 12, 2023 by Raindrops

[Raindrops]

SPC AC 121619

Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1119 AM CDT Fri May 12 2023

Valid 121630Z - 131200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTH-CENTRAL INTO EASTERN NE...FAR WESTERN IA...AND EXTREME NORTHWEST MO..

...SUMMARY...

Strong to severe thunderstorms are expected to develop this afternoon across northeast Nebraska and vicinity, where a few tornadoes, very large hail and wind damage will be possible. Strong to severe storms are also expected to develop from eastern Kansas southward to Texas this afternoon, with a potential for damaging winds and large hail.

...Eastern NE into the Mid MO Valley ... Morning satellite imagery and surface observations show a stacked cyclone centered over western KS/NE border vicinity. Occluded surface low associated with this cyclone is forecast to further occlude as it lifts northward throughout the day. Warm sector to the north and east of the surface low is characterized by temperatures and dewpoints in the mid to upper 60s. Modest heating within this moist low-level environment is expected to result in moderate to strong buoyancy by the early afternoon. Thunderstorm development is then anticipated as a cold front associated with the low pushes into the region during the early afternoon. Ample buoyancy will exist for storms to persist as the move northward/northeastward off the boundary.

Vertical shear is sufficient for storm organization, but is not overly strong, owing to the weakening mid-level flow. This weakening is somewhat countered by the modest southeasterly low-level flow, and resulting low-level veering with height. However, the overall wind profile leads to some questions regarding overall supercell coverage, with a somewhat clustered storm mode currently anticipated. Even so, a few supercells capable of all severe hazards, including very large hail and tornadoes, are still possible. Additionally, ambient low-level vorticity should enhance the tornado potential along and north of the front.

...Eastern KS into southern OK/northwest TX... Ample low-level moisture exists east of a Pacific front/dryline extending from the surface low over the western KS/NE border vicinity southward through central KS and then back southwestward through northwest TX. This dryline may make modest eastward progress across KS today (and even less across OK) before then retreating back westward later this evening. Large-scale forcing for ascent is nebulous, but mesoscale ascent along this dryline combined with a destabilized airmass with moderate to strong buoyancy is expected to result in thunderstorm development. Modest deep-layer flow and resultant modest shear suggests a potential outflow-dominant storm mode, but a few transient supercell structures could still occur. Strong gusts and large hail are the primary severe threats.

...West TX into the TX Hill Country... Current satellite imagery shows a weak shortwave trough moving through northern Mexico. This shortwave is expected to continue northeastward into Trans-Pecos, interacting with the warm, moist, and strongly buoyant air mass across the region. Widespread thunderstorm development is anticipated, with an outflow-dominant, multicellular mode favored. Some amalgamation along outflows is expected, with resulting clusters also capable of damaging gusts. Storm interactions may also result in updrafts strong enough to produce large hail.

...Portions of the Southeast... Weak convective cluster continues to gradually push southeastward from the Mid-South into MS. 12Z JAN sounding sampled over 7 deg C per km from 700 to 500 mb and recent observations show upper 60s to low 70s dewpoints ahead of the cluster across MS. These conditions, coupled with diurnal heating, is expected to result in strong buoyancy this afternoon. Redevelopment along this outflow could result in a few stronger storms capable of water-loaded downbursts.

..Mosier/Moore.. 05/12/2023

Mesoscale Discussion 772

[Raindrops]

Early start For Dr.Timmer

 

Edited May 12, 2023 by Raindrops

[Raindrops]

Tornado Watch 215

Mesoscale Discussion 773

[Raindrops]

This low pressure (anticyclone) is a beast.

[The Tall Weatherman]

Reed on a wedge

 

[Raindrops]

5 minutes ago, The Tall Weatherman said:

Reed on a wedge

 

Definitely seeing multi vortex.

[Eagle Eye]

Reed Timmer tornado intercept already. Was inside it at one point.