Model Output Discussion - Into February

[Lukesluckybunch]

1 minute ago, Mucka said:

Perhaps, and not overly cold, but if a high sets up over the UK then it will probably stay chilly at the surface for a while.

Currently looking at the output ,I think it would suggest temperatures in the 4-8c range.

[Mucka]

11 minutes ago, Lukesluckybunch said:

Currently looking at the output ,I think it would suggest temperatures in the 4-8c range.

It depends on the exact setup of course and there will be local variation but initially N to S that sounds about right though a little colder in places I expect.

Ground temps and wintry potential are too fine detail at the moment though. We still aren't certain of the pattern until ECM comes on board and we get some consistency.

 

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GFS 122z mean 144h is somewhat flatter than the 06z. Not going our way this afternoon so far if we wanted a proper cold spell before March and a bird in the hand is worth two in the bush.

Edited February 16, 2023 by Mucka

[Lukesluckybunch]

All we seem to be doing this winter is chasing something very special,which infact actually never materialises..it's very frustrating.the other thing I can't seem to understand is that after the 6z runs the ensembles were a upgrade from the 0z runs..so you would think that the 12z would be an upgrade if it was to follow from the previous ens..so it's all a bit confusing to me,maybe you have to question how accurate the GFS model really is...does this make sense?

Edited February 16, 2023 by Lukesluckybunch
Spelling

[Ali1977]

The GEFS mean even shows snow/sleet showers fir many next Wednesday, it’s a strong signal if a mean at 144 shows this.  And yes I understand the snow charts are unreliable but that’s what we have. 

 

Close to an ice day at 200m in the pennies next Wed, snow showers all day.  Caveat that with - this is just the GFS showing this , possibly UKMO. 

Edited February 16, 2023 by Ali1977

[winterof79]

PV starting to be stretched 

 

Lovely UKMO keeping us on the cold side from Wednesday 

Edited February 16, 2023 by winterof79

[snowray]

2 hours ago, Ali1977 said:

-6c uppers at night in a NE flow would do it away from coasts, and especially at any altitude.  Uppers only one part of the equation but it my experience it seems to snow in March when we are less cold at the surface - those big wet flakes!! 

This is true, also in April, I think colder Sea Temps, strength of PPN and also avap cooling play a big part of Spring snowfall. Snow during the afternoon period can also be wet, or sleet.

12z short ENS looking ok.

Edited February 16, 2023 by snowray

[Nick2373]

1 hour ago, KTtom said:

Met going for Average to Mild all the way through to 2nd March. I guess sub minus 5 uppers, will still generate ground temps of 7-9 c in the late February sunshine.

Yes they are Ktom if we get the sunshine I’m thinking fog and misty days at times with coastal drizzle for some. P.S still can’t get on the site mate

[winterof79]

Cracking set of shorts for Lancs and Yorks with beefy showers building

 

[minus10]

 At t240 that the gefs mean is colder than the op for the uk...

[nick sussex]

A rather underwhelming start to the evenings outputs .

Too much energy heading east and not ne so the jet cut back is less evident.

The UKMO highlights this even though it does get some colder air south .

This mornings ECM op was quite far west with the pattern and that was supported by the ECM 06 hrs control run so it will be interesting to see what it does tonight given the GFS and UKMO aren’t interested in that evolution .

[minus10]

Control run keeping us in the cold longer with the hp positioned slightly further north..

 

[feb1991blizzard]

25 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

A rather underwhelming start to the evenings outputs .

Too much energy heading east and not ne so the jet cut back is less evident.

The UKMO highlights this even though it does get some colder air south .

This mornings ECM op was quite far west with the pattern and that was supported by the ECM 06 hrs control run so it will be interesting to see what it does tonight given the GFS and UKMO aren’t interested in that evolution .

to be fair i can't see them being overwhelming for a good while yet, not in the timeframes you usually stick to posting about anyway.

[nick sussex]

Wow some strange goings on with the ECM op. Day 5 !

Is it finding a QTR given the westwards corrections .

Edited February 16, 2023 by nick sussex

[Ali1977]

ECM not so good for mid next week with the cold out to the west - I’m guessing that’s the model that is similar to the ones the METO use!! 

[nick sussex]

Just now, Ali1977 said:

ECM not so good for mid next week with the cold out to the west - I’m guessing that’s the model that is similar to the ones the METO use!! 

At this point we want that energy heading se as the ships sailed and we need a dramatic development from the east .

[minus10]

Well ecm quite different to gfs at 144

 

[nick sussex]

The ECM deserves to be shot for delivering a day 6 which is the worst of all worlds .

 

[winterof79]

3 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

The ECM deserves to be shot for delivering a day 6 which is the worst of all worlds .

 

Heres ECMs yesterdays 12Z

 

Todays GEM UKMO and GFS all agree with this chart.

Today ECM 12Z

 

Edited February 16, 2023 by winterof79

[Ali1977]

3 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

The ECM deserves to be shot for delivering a day 6 which is the worst of all worlds .

 

If the GFS was showing this it would be getting slated big time. Hoping the EC ENS are better than the Op - albeit next week shouldn’t really be where we are looking for any impressive cold type set ups!! 

[Cuban Zebra]

The GFS 12z throws out more dirge! High pressure never far from our little isle and more often than not appearing in the wrong place at the wrong time!

At least it’s not just us with much of Europe going early warm spring!! If this is what’s delivered then I think we should ban the mentioning of SSW anytime next winter!!

[Bricriu]

8 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

to be fair i can't see them being overwhelming for a good while yet, not in the timeframes you usually stick to posting about 

 

 

4 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

The ECM deserves to be shot for delivering a day 6 which is the worst of all worlds 

I will throw in the towel if the ECM is still finding a way to prevent cold reaching us by the second week of March.  In the mean time due to the mjo declining in its current phase no high will be able to  make to the North West.

[minus10]

Ecm/ Gem

vs

gfs/ukmo

[nick sussex]

1 minute ago, winterof79 said:

Heres ECMs yesterdays 12Z

 

GEM UKMO and GFS all aggree with this chart.

Today ECM 12Z

 

The ECM evolution upto day 7  is the sort of thing you’d expect if you believe in bad karma .

Did coldies do something bad in a previous life !

 

[Ali1977]

Just now, minus10 said:

Ecm/ Gem

vs

gfs/ukmo

Mmm, tricky call. 

[Stuie]

The ECM manages to go through the whole run without a sniff of a -8 850 hitting the UK.